monday update

SHORT TERM: market pulls back to start FED week, DOW -37

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.5%. Europe opened higher but slipped 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened four points below Friday’s SPX 1692 close. In the first few minutes the SPX popped to 1691, then started to pullback further. At 10:00 Pending homes sales were reported lower: -0.4% vs +6.7%. The pullback continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1682. Then the market started to drift higher. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1689, dipped to 1684 just before the close, then ended the day at 1685.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dipped $3, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1762 pivots. Tomorrow: the FED starts its FOMC meeting, Case-Shiller at 9:00 and Consumer confidence at 10:00.

The market opened lower today, had a meaningful pullback, then tried to reverse to the upside. Get the impression the next few days, leading up to the FOMC statement, may be the same. Thus far, from the tentative Minor 4 low at SPX 1676, the market has rallied to 1692 (16 pts) then pulled back to 1682. This is a weaker beginning than either Minor wave 1 or Minor wave 3. Minor 1: 26 pt rally, then 13 pt pullback, and Minor 3: 22 pt rally then 12 pt pullback. This continues to be an interesting week.

Short term support is at the 1680 pivot then SPX 1658-1667, with resistance at the 1699 pivot then SPX 1717. Short term momentum declined from slightly overbought to around neutral. The short term OEW charts vacillated again today with the reversal level now at SPX 1685. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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206 Responses to monday update

  1. mkmason2013 says:

    Higher close and higher low. Not sure about the high. Off to meeting. GL All! M


    YOU SHOULD SERIOUSLY THINK ABOUT OEW TUTORING. TNA /UVXY ???????? . If you post less … will make more money !!!!!


  3. pio27 says:

    I just wonder how many people are short these VIX etf’s ? I mean its the easiest trade to make and you almost cant lose money shorting them VIX goes down everyday. But what happens if we get an event and shorts need to cover?


    • rc1269 says:

      i’ve never tried but i’ve heard the borrow is prohibitive. so not sure how many truly do short. usually if it’s a mathematical certainty (such as uvxy assumptotic to zero) then the trade is hard to do


    • budfox9450 says:

      Your correct – however, best you begin, when the VIX is coming down
      off a rather higher number – say above 16, for example.
      But – your basic tenet is correct. The VXX is for shorts.
      I personally avoid, going short. I trade the VIX in obne direction


  4. Erka11 says:

    According to a CNBC poll, fall taper is already discounted. Yet we are at or close to ATH.
    People are waiting on the starting blocks, ready to bolt on FOMC minutes that can only carry a bullish message. If the economy is good, taper if it’s not the heroin keeps dripping !
    Bullish / bullish case, so what’s new ?


  5. H D says:

    1 thing is for sure UVXY never truncates. You can always buy it cheaper


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