friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW +3

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1684. The market had closed at SPX 1690 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 1682, then bounced to 1686 by 10:00. Just before 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 85.1 vs 83.9. Consumers are now bullish for the first time since 2007. The pullback continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit 1676. Then the market started to rally. The rally continued into the afternoon with only a three point pullback along the way. The market closed at SPX 1692 the high for the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude slid 80 cents., Gold ended unchanged, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Last night the FED reported the Monetary base hit a new high: $3.326tln vs $3.273tln. Also New home median prices declined: $249.7K vs $262.8K. Today the WLEI was reported unchanged: 54.5% vs 54.5%.

The market opened with a gap down today, for the first time since the Minor wave 2 low on July 3rd. Then, after a small four point rally to SPX 1686 the market declined to 1676, making this pullback 23 points from the 1699 uptrend high. At the low there was a positive divergence, the pullback reached 20+ points, the 1680 pivot range held support, and Minor 4’s abc was the inverse of Minor 2’s: (19-11-15 vs 14-11-19). It looked like a good place to end Minor 4 and start Minor wave 5. The market responded positively.

Short term support remains at the OEW 1680 pivot and SPX 1658-1667, with resistance at the 1699 pivot and SPX 1713. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at today’s low, then ended overbought. The short term OEW charts dropped to negative, then positive, with the reversal level still at SPX 1684. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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98 Responses to friday update

  1. ufa123 says:

    Tony thanks for all your hard work and thoughts on the markets.

    I can‘t help on the intra-day OEW levels but I would like to share an article that Morningstar has recently published on behavioural finance


  2. davidmlamos says:

    Good morning Torehund:

    I have never traded a commodity. I looked at peix as you suggested. Looks like it has gone through a long and protracted abc. My count would say we are in either in a first wave or early in a third of small degree of trend. You have perkedy curiosity. What is your count? I know little but am curious.


    • torehund says:

      peix i expect will follow sugar that will soon turn. Urre the Count from wave 4 top at 30 usd, then a 5 wave Down where wave 5 is very long., It already turned…


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