thursday update

SHORT TERM: market rallies again, DOW +78

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened lower but gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 334K vs 360K. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1681 close and continued to rally. At 10:00 Leading indicators were reported flat: 0.0% vs +0.1%, and the Philly FED was reported higher: 19.8 vs 12.5. The rally continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit a new all time high at 1693. Then it started to pullback. At 1:00 the SPX hit 1687, bounced to 1692 by 2:30, dipped to 1688 by 3:30, and then rose to close at 1689.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rose $1.50, Gold rallied $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Tomorrow is Options expiration Friday.

The market opened higher today, rallied past SPX 1685 eliminating the ongoing Minor wave 4 scenario, and rallied into the OEW 1699 pivot range. Our minimum uptrend targets for Minor 3 (1680 pivot), and Minor 5 (1699 pivot), have been met. Right now, just as we expected when this uptrend began, the market either tops in July at the 1699 pivot. Or, extends into August and possibly reaching the 1779 pivot. The next several days should be the determining factor.

Currently we can count five waves up from SPX 1560: 1627-1605-1685-1672-1693 so far. This count would satisfy the five Minor wave uptrend to complete Int. wave v and Major wave 3. We are going to carry this count on the SPX charts. We can also count two Minor waves completed from SPX 1560 and a Minor wave 3 still ongoing: 1627-1605, then 1627-1615-1693 so far. This count would suggest the uptrend will extend into August, and will be carried on the DOW charts. Our immediate concerns are the negative divergences on every timeframe at the current highs, and the weakness of most fifth waves during this bull market. With this in mind we give the two potential scenarios a 50-50 probability.

Short term support remains at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1658-1667, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1670. Best to your trading on OPEX day.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

349 Responses to thursday update

  1. ladad says:

    Another question about the VIX — does anyone here thinks it serves a “greater good”? Is the world actually better off because there are people trading the VIX? Does it increase economic value and productivity? Or is it merely a “rent seeker” that siphons money off more productive uses? Can anyone make a serious argument that the VIX makes the economy better and not worse?

    • jackkendo1987 says:

      uvxy down 5% in one day at 42.7
      SPX only up 8% from 1560.

    • mkmason2013 says:

      Can’t speak for economy, but has increased my acct substantially. M

      • ladad says:

        MK, I think you just answered my question.😉

      • cicelyalaska says:

        TVIX versus UVXY. which is better?

      • mkmason2013 says:

        cicely, STAY COMPLETELY AWAY FROM TVIX!!! Be sure spx is pulling back, or you could get a very unwelcome surprise. M

      • cicelyalaska says:

        Both have nasty decay, can you explain why TVIX is worse? Thanks!:)

      • mkmason2013 says:

        cicely, TVIX has all sorts of lawsuits pending because last year, they didn’t notify shareholders in proper way that they decided to go from closed-ended to open-ended fund, therefore current shareholders lost a bundle when price plummeted. Thankfully, I wasn’t a part of that! Also, Tvix is based on 90 days Vix futures, whereas Uvxy on 60-days futures.

        You should know that fionamargaret and I were talking a couple days ago and agree that uvxy could go as low as $40 before turning back up. You might want to wait until Major 4 gets started good, then, jump on. FWIW. M

  2. rc1269 says:

    Tony – 322 comments
    if i was as popular as you my junior high days would have been a lot more enjoyable!

  3. lunker1 says:

    Never short the….um yep. Think we see 17xx

  4. pbnj123 says:

    Be careful here – correct?

  5. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    for your viewing
    In regards to oil/spx

  6. jackkendo1987 says:

    300% long.
    I am going for wave nine.
    wave nine for 1706 (1699 pivot), 17 points.
    Buy the dull market.

  7. pio27 says:

    VIX is a big topic. Bernanke curbed the VIX. I will be shocked if the VIX hits 20 bucks anytime this year.

    • H D says:

      what does the vix do exactly?

      • tony caldaro says:

        It is supposed to measure daily volatility
        But people trade it like a stock =)

      • tommyboys says:

        Its used as a measure of volatility in the markets based on put/call premiums so at a minimum its hardly perfectly correlated. It generally moves in opposition to the market. The VXN is actually a more accurate measure of this volatility for the nasdaq yet rarely referenced.

      • H D says:

        thx Tony, Watched it on several occasions out of curiosity and haven’t seen any correlation to SPX, front month options maybe….

        • tony caldaro says:

          A reading of 15 implies 1% daily VOL, and 30 implies 2%.
          Naturally when markets enter correction mode VOL increases and the VIX reading does to.
          It bounces around a lot during a bull market.
          But really makes a run higher during the end of bull market and during bear markets.

      • rc1269 says:

        >>what does the vix do exactly?
        confuses a lot of people

      • rc1269 says:

        gave a little real world example down below. filed under: what matters more the absolute change or % change

    • 7dayyss says:

      So you don’t think it can hit that in Primary IV?

    • joseph3000 says:

      Anyone buying VIX? +div on the charts. Looks like a good buy?

  8. llerias7 says:

    Tony, you have said: “This count would suggest the uptrend will extend into August, and will be carried on the DOW charts.” It means the DOW will be the best performer on this final stage?


  9. pio27 says:

    Lets see. UPS guides lower, GOOG , MSFT miss bad, Everybody lowering GDP guidance. VIX at lowes. Detroit files bankruptcy. Market at highs?

    • pio27 says:

      I dont think of TA or EW or fundamentals even matter. the market just goes up.

      • tommyboys says:

        Don’t complain

      • Ryan Parker says:

        The technicals support a higher market. Haven’t seen anything to get bearish about (from a technical perspective) yet in 2013. Don’t get me wrong, I’m with you 100%. This doesn’t seem logical at all. No earnings growth in the S&P 500 for the past year. Just multiple expansion. Earning expectations keep coming down. Companies guiding down future expectations. I think it comes down to the fact that there really isn’t anywhere else to put capital aside from US equities and real estate. Don’t want to own Japanese equities unless hedged in Yen and I wouldn’t want to own European stocks unless I was hedged against the Euro. Commodities aside from oil stink, bonds stink, and emerging markets have been horrible. Only place for $$ to go is US equities. People keep talking about the Fed tapering QE. As weak as the economy is I don’t see it happening. Heck, they may even bump it up even more to keep interest rates on govt. paper low. A 2% increase in rates across the board would add $300 billion+ to the deficit. This sets up a double edged sword for the Fed. As the stock market goes up investors are going to take money out of Treasuries which would mean higher interest rates. Maybe the market finally tops out when investors realize that the Fed can’t fix the real economy no matter how much money they print? The breadth readings I follow suggest that Tony’s Dow count is correct and that there is still more upside into August. Even some bad earnings and outlooks are being rewarded. Look at YHOO. It was down $1 after hours the other day and was up $2 the next day.

      • budfox9450 says:

        wow – that is an interesting view…

      • H D says:

        Lot’s of people talking bout the vix again…. interesting. As far as EW mattering well Minor 3 of Int. v of Major 3 is kinda as you say “the market just goes up”

      • blackjak100 says:

        I’ll admit I didn’t expect a VIX retrace this deep this late into the bull market. I was expecting low 13’s, but not anything below 13. I have no idea what this translates to.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        bj, about the lower vix, google standard deviation(s) to start. Gotta go.

  10. jparkins10 says:

    I posted this in another forum:
    It’s going to be 10 days in a row with unusually small intra-day range.
    Last time like this was March, I mentioned the other day how March was similar to this month.
    The 10 day period also ended with the end of March expiration, with the high of the cycle on the Thursday of expiration….sound familiar?
    From end of March expiration to end of month, there was downside pressure, but it was contained, and the month ended just 0.5% below end of expiration (but no high above the high during expiration, low was 2% below that high).
    The beginning of April was a different story, with significant downside starting from April 1 and cumulating in a low during April expiration, almost 6% below the March close (the first 3 days accounted for a big chunk of that downside move).
    Looks to me like we’ll be seeing a similar story from now to mid-August.

    • fionamargaret says:

    • bhtrade says:

      There have been several important highs put in during July opex week in recent memory. The most dramatic being 2011 and 2007. This time does appear to be slightly different in that July opex resulted in new highs. The 2007 and 2011 occurrences were both lower highs.

    • jparkins10 says:

      Here’s the post it was referencing:

      I’ve mentioned my IWM database a few times in here, it’s since IWM began in early 2000.

      One of the pieces of data I capture is the hi/lo from the open, and the percentage move up/down. If it doesn’t go up/down by more than 0.25% I record that as a “miss”.

      In the 158 months of data, there have been 2 months where the number of days with downside misses were in double digits, both were this year: February with 12 & May with 10. So far this month, we have 6 “misses” in 13 trading days as well!

      This year is a complete outlier in the lack of downside movement, it’s very perplexing, but hopefully will mean revert as the year completes!

  11. jobjas says:

    Spx likely to top around 1690

  12. waddaguess says:


    I’m stumped. So if we get one more high from here to 1697 per say, would that then satisfy 9 waves from minor 2 low to complete minor 3? I ask in response to your comment from earlier that a lower low from here would have to be minute 4 not Minor 4. I am a bit confused with the 9 wave statement.

  13. As I said a few days back, majority talks bullish and that gets reflected in surveys but few have the guts to buy. Then bears quote those fuzzy figures to rationalize shorting. This is one bull market where every one finds it easier to short then get long. Love the market for the way it plays games.

  14. davidmlamos says:

    I love this place!!!!

  15. I am worried about selling too soon in this bull market. Corrections are the least of my worries.

    • rc1269 says:

      regarding the VIX crashing – what do you define as a VIX crash? it’s 2 points away from the cycle low. and for structural reasons it very rarely will drop below 10 and usually only for a brief period of time.

    • rc1269 says:

      so it has already crashed and you think it’s still going to crash
      and by that definition the VIX crashes at least once a month…?
      VIX is already a percentage; i think a point move is more meaningful than a % move

      • tommyboys says:

        Don’t misunderstand Trades. It is the % move the VIX makes that is important not the level measured in points. Don’t understand all the ‘crash’ talk – it hasn’t crashed – we’d FEEL a crash…although maybe just semantics. As a pure value it was lower in early May. I agree with Trades it’s likely to move sideways to maybe up a bit over the coming month but doubt a huge % move.

      • tommyboys says:

        In other words as far as the market is concerned it would feel the same whether the VIX went from 40-30 or 12-9 (same % regardless of actual value).

      • mkmason2013 says:

        tboys, who said Vix ‘crash’? M

      • 7dayyss says:

        From the iii of iii to int iv you had about an 80% move, it’s only reasonable to assume your going to have that or more for major 4. No?

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Excuse me, 7days, you talking to me, or someone else? M

      • 7dayyss says:

        Tradesmart and tommy.

      • tommyboys says:

        Not a zero sum game…at all.

      • rc1269 says:

        i’m not misunderstanding him at all. i’m saying i disagree about reading VIX
        it’s not the % move in VIX that means anything. VIX is already stated as a %. stating the % change of a % is fairly meaningless. VIX of ’13’ is the wgtd average implied vol (a %) of in and out of the money 1st and 2nd month puts and calls. what does a 2% change in 13% implied vol mean? nothing.
        In March of 2011 the VIX doubled, going from about 15 to 30. That’s 15 points and 100%. The S&P declined by 7%. From mid-Sept ’11 to the low in early oct ’11, the VIX increased from 30 to 47, which is 17 points but only 55%. The S&P declined by 12.7% during that time. focusing on the % change would give an inaccurate account of what the market was doing.
        it’s the actual point change in VIX that is important, as VIX is already a % term

      • 7dayyss says:

        I agree with your point moves, the percentage I’m referencing is of the move in points. During Primary II you had a 22% correction on spx and on vix charts you had sub 20 going to over 40, not a 55% move. That point move represented over 100% on a 22% correction.

    • TM, rather sell too soon then too late… It’s Buffet’s mantra, and he got pretty rich last time I checked…

  16. blackjak100 says:

    With all the divergences and the VIX near 13, I think starting to buy puts here makes complete sense IMO.

  17. rc1269 says:

    there’s been a lot of talk here today about the VIX. for avoidance of doubt: the VIX collapse today is a stronger indication that we are at or near an interim high than it is an indicator of the rally continuing. seems like there might be some confusion about that

  18. gary61b says:

    Tony, possible 1684 was A and B is in progress with C to come of
    minor iv?

  19. 7dayyss says:

    Hmm, spx hourly doesn’t even want to kiss the trendline!

  20. blackjak100 says:

    Vix trying for sub-13…something I didn’t see coming

  21. joseph3000 says:

    I rather wait for all this int 5 topping game. Let me know when Major 4 is dropping hard. I’ll be ready to buy at the low : )

    • joseph3000 says:

      Can anyone find the difference of an int. 5 vs a Major 4 wave? Which one is easier?

      • Chung Wang says:

        Int. 5 could be terminated anywhere. You need to know where to short Major 4. You have to be skillful to trade well on both. That’s why we need our master. :–)

      • joseph3000 says:

        I’m not shorting Major 4 either. I’m buying the bottom of Major 4 that’s for sure.

  22. waddaguess says:

    Looks like minor 4 here. Would like to see some support at 1673ish to confirm.

  23. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    option market = complacency……that was not the case in may and the most recent rally.

  24. blackjak100 says:

    An article suggesting int v ended or will end today. Take it for what it’s worth.

  25. tony caldaro says:

    If the SPX rallies above 1693 we are probably still in Minor 3

  26. Bear raid on VIX. Minor 3 is extending. GOOG back from the dead, only in a bull market.

      • rc1269 says:

        that’s good for you. only speaking for myself but i don’t get much value out of reading other’s investment cheerleading.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        rc, I have no control over what you read or don’t read. Just move on past my posts, because I will keep posting. M

      • rc1269 says:

        i think what makes Tony’s blog so great is the quality and informative nature of the posts. it’s disappointing that you wouldn’t care to strive toward that aim, instead feeling satisfied to just use it as an outlet for your mental dialogue regarding your positions.
        if you have something useful to read, i’d love to be able to read it. but since that doesn’t seem to be your primary goal here, per your request i’ll just wholesale ignore your posts going fwd. cheers

      • mkmason2013 says:

        rc, okay w/me.

        And I will also continue to encourage others to get into OEW Tutoring as quickly as possible before losing all their money! M

      • tony caldaro says:

        Okay, guys and gals,
        Enough with the character assaults and back to the markets.
        We are already dealing with 200-300 comments a day, and do not need the noise.
        thank you

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Thanks Tony. I’ll do my part and ease up on my posts and will NOT state any more buy/sell positions here. Hope others encourage newbies to enroll in OEW Tutoring. GL to All. M

    • mkmason2013 says:

      Vix almost down to 13! YES! Now, if it will just collapse under 13, would be great. M

    • rc1269 says:

      expiry. wouldn’t get all that excited by it

      • mkmason2013 says:

        I know, but would love to see it continue down. If stocks rise, it might keep downtrend. Is one of those things I look for before a hard pullback/correction occurs. M

  27. kjb0 says:

    The Bear Market will commence in the August timeframe. If I am wrong, I will take my football and go home.
    Bye Bye Detroit. And that goes for just about every city in California and most in the country. The unions and liberals have managed to decimate just about everything they ever touched. When will we learn?

    kjb0 says:
    May 24, 2013 at 8:11 am

    Usually not agreeing with Tony can be hazardous to your trading account, but I believe the high of this Bull market will be the end of May, beginning of June area, with a possible retest in August. I agree with Tony that the Bear will rule until 2016. At least I won’t have long to wait to see if I could be correct. Remember the FED has never had a valid exit strategy, so everybody in the world is selling at the first hint of a FED pullback. Makes you think.

  28. Leetired says:

    I’ll see u guys 10 fathoms lower from here.
    Gone fishing !

  29. mkmason2013 says:

    No offense to Lee or anyone else from Detroit, but I’m already sick of hearing about their Chap. 9. I will say that yes, it’s precedent setting, and actually gives Meredith Twitney’s assertion of municipalities going under some real validation. Might not all be as big as Detroit, but if govt/union won’t negotiate in real-world terms, down they go. M

    • Leetired says:

      None taken M

    • H D says:

      GM took 33B$ in US taxpayer money, generated 152B$ in revenue in 2012 and paid virtually ZERO taxes on it. Some how blaming an $18/ hour union worker seems like a cheap shot IMHO.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        HD, I get it, but it is what it is, and for many years, GM workers were not making $18/hr. I agree, Govt Motors is a tragedy. M

      • H D says:

        M- the point is shouldn’t it “trickle down?” These Corp’s making record profits and paying no taxes? It’s not the labor force bankrupting anything. A city like Detroit with the automotive industry should be booming.

      • tommyboys says:

        Most of the Auto revenue is generated in the burbs – NOT the city…

      • mkmason2013 says:

        HD, I understand what you’re saying and agree. But the situation is what it is, and it’s ALWAYS the littler fish that get eaten. I’m a little fish too and don’t like it any more than you do. M

        tboys, some VERY insightful comments. M

      • gary61b says:

        HD if I remember right as soon as the bailout monies was in hand they closed a suburban plant in WI and started t build a new plant in Brazil. The only ones that get hurt in bankruptcy and downsizing is the worker. And they wonder why their is unions.

    • jackkendo1987 says:

      uvxy is in serious downtrend.
      Tried to short uvxy, but system won’t take the order.

    • tommyboys says:

      I live here. Its justice for the 5 decades of corruption voted in by the lemmings. They HAD to have Coleman and Kwame over MUCH better – and honest – candidates. Now they must lie in their collective bed. Democracy at work.

    • libadvsor says:

      This gives Detroit the opportunity of the century in cleaning out the union deadbeats and layers of bureaucracy. I understand that they are demolishing hundreds of neighborhoods in bad physical shape and no ownership. Lots of tuf sledding ahead – asset sales, cuts in benefits, unaffordable pensions. Lots of lawyers involved. Population once 2 million now 700,000.

  30. pbnj123 says:

    Thank you for the update on the SPX 60 minute chart.
    One question – is that to signify int v?
    And if so then we are headed for a Major IV?
    Is that crrect?
    Sorry – just looking for clarity on the labelling
    Thank you

  31. blackjak100 says:

    Sustained trade below 1684 would help kick off Minor 4 IMO.

    • jackkendo1987 says:

      Sustained trade above 1684 would make 1706 (1699 pivot)?
      Add 300% long at 1684ish.

    • jackkendo1987 says:

      I already sold 300% long, 1688. 3-4 points gain.
      After I realized Tony is looking for 10% down from here with Major 3 v/3 at 1693.

  32. H D says:

    trade idea: CL in multi year flat B4 $67 from double top.

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      I started a position in sco this am 28.78….double inverse uso. i plan to leg into more over the next 6 weeks…that use to be the symbol for smith corona typewriters….i hope it works better than that.

    • CB says:

      Great chart. Thanks HD! what would be ur aproximate upside target if crude happens to breakthru the 109 level,if you have a minute sometime? Thanks.

  33. torehund says:

    lots offlattish abcisness in individual Stocks, sky should Clear sooner rather than later, should then influence indexes too.

    • torehund says:

      Shanghai looks done on the downside, nice symmerty affecting the multiyear corrective phase. Could be IT !

  34. H D says:

    GM all, excellent posts everyone. those 1682’s keep staring at me😯

  35. 7dayyss says:

    Looks like the market wants to go higher after 9!

  36. rc1269 says:

    must… not… sell… off

  37. talon1963 says:

    There are two areas of Fib extensions that I think are likely candidates for Major 3 to end.
    The 1708-1712 area contains:
    1709: 127% extension of Major 1
    1712: Minor 5 = 62% x Minor 1
    1712: 161% extension of Minor 1
    The 1768-1778 area contains:
    1768: Int 5 = Int 1
    1778: Minor 5 = 162% x Minor 1
    1778: 261% extension of Minor 1
    1778: 100% extension of Primary 1
    1829: 161% extension of Major 1 (don’t think it can get there)
    IMO yesterday’s high was either Minor 3 or Minute 1 of Minor 5.

      • libadvsor says:

        Tony I posted a diagonal triangle impending top yesterday hoping to evoke some corroborating response. Not a word. Well todays decline completed d4 and it appears d5 to new highs is both possible and probable….but contained to no hier than 1695.
        d1 from 1671.84 1684.75 d2 1678.12 d3 1693.12 and div this morning low 1684.08.
        dv as stated above. I expect a sharp decline there after to 1560.33. Any audit of this opinion would be most welcome. Thanks, Ed.

      • talon1963 says:

        Lib, your count would be an expanding diagonal. Pretty rare and not an ED.

    • No says:

      +1….. I’d take 1712 (60%), or 1778(40%) for now:-)

    • mkmason2013 says:

      GM and thanks, talon! JMO, but think spx needs to escape the 1699 pivot decisively next week (probably gap up over it), else, Major 3 is done. JMO. M

      • talon1963 says:

        M, good morning and I agree that SPX can’t gap and backfill much longer if my projections are to come to fruition. I’m still sitting on the sidelines just waiting for the market to tell me where it’s going. My projections are a hunch right now and putting money on a hunch is no better odds then you can get in Vegas.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        +1, I agree, talon. M

  38. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Mr. T,
    Seriously , you can’t make this up….Look at the spx chart in june 08

    In a note on fund flow, Bank of America reports:

    Largest weekly inflow to US equity funds since June ‘08 (note market value of S&P500 index, adjusted for float, exceeded $15 trillion for the first time ever today) Huge $20bn global equity inflows versus $1bn out of bonds.


    Read more:

  39. blackjak100 says:

    I would like to see a 38.2% retrace down to 1660-1661 for Minor 4 and then a Minor 5 top at 1725 where 5=1. I know market is never perfect but I suspect Minor 3, not Minor 5, topped at 1693.

    • No says:

      we are in the same camp, but if minor 4 fails to start today or early next week then we are likely in minor 5.

  40. I wish we could edit our posts so I could get rid of the spaces between my lines. I wrote this post in Notepad and copied and pasted it to the posting rectangle. I wasn’t able to see what the output looked like until the post was complete. I must remember not to copy and past from Notepad to this posting area.

  41. The main issue I see with the first count is that

    1685-1672 is too small to be a legit minor

    corrective wave 4. The fact that it does satisfy the

    theory of alternation in that minor wave 2 was deep

    and thus minor wave 4 could be flat is the main

    factor that could give that interpretation

    reasonable credibility.
    We did have new highs by the DJI,DJT,Wilshire

    5000, Russell 2000, S&P Midcap 400, Value Line, and

    XLF. The Nasdaq barely made a new high,and the

    related XLK declined a little bit. The NYSE A-D line

    had a reasonably strong day (+1104) but failed to

    equal it’s old high. The Nasdaq A-D line made a new

    high by a wide margin.
    So it looks to me as though a few large-cap Techs
    are the main weak link in the market. I was

    especially impressed by the new high in the XLF

    (Financial ETF) and the strong performance of the

    DJU (+.90%) in the face of the recent surge in

    10-year rates. The previous bear market was all

    about weakness in the financial sector, and that

    remains, IMHO, the critical sector for the market

    and the economy. Weakness in technology and other

    cyclicals just indicates the underlying fragility,

    of business activity, which will give the Fed all

    the more reason to postpone tapering of QE3.

  42. jobjas says:

    e mini & SPX likely to roll over tomorrow for W4.

  43. lunker1 says:

    1 – 1685
    2 – 1678
    3 – 1693
    4 – 1687
    5 = 1 = 1700
    but 5 might have truncated this afternoon at 1691.5

    • Chung Wang says:

      You changed profile picture from a wisdom man to a monkey. Have you change your cover from Bulls to Bears? I am confused. :–)
      I am fearful and respectful when Master Tony painted negative div. in hourly chart, so I wait no time to clean up my longs around 1690. I will play short term long at around 1660-1670.

    • FIVE! Five waves higher, AH AH AH AH AH!

      (Couldn’t resist!)

  44. 5wavemodel says:

    Although at the moment it does not seem like a very good call, I am still looking for the SPX to move to 1718. I count 4 completed waves from Tuesday’s 1672 low, 1677-1673-1685-1678. I then have waves 1, and 2 completed today at 1693 and 1688. This entire sequence of waves should complete at 1718. A move below 1672 would prove this count wrong.


    • CB says:

      Thanks Steve, Very kind of U to share your analysis,
      Was just looking at the AD chart … it concurs with your view..theres not telling when, though..with opex and stuff….

  45. mkmason2013 says:

    Whether this is minor or major 4 (I go w/Tony, so…), it could be pretty fast. Reason I say this is I came home to find uvxy futures closed at 46.05, a full 1.30 higher than I bought it this afternoon, so looks like fear could be building. Come on TSUNAMI ROLLOVER! M

  46. rc1269 says:

    Nikkei mini flash crash

  47. Young Tom says:

    RE: your Weds comment about Oklahoma and Arkansas. Can’t comment on Arkansas, only been there a couple of times to play in golf tournaments. Seemed like a nice place, but Country Clubs always are. Please take a step back and remove your head from lower extremities when making off hand comments about certain areas of this country. I have lived in Oklahoma for ten years, after living most of my life in the greater Chicago area. I can say with out a doubt these are some of the most gracious and well grounded people I have ever met. The sense of community and self graciousness is to be admired. It’s kind of like Mayberry in a sense. It also helps to own a few oil well or natural gas wells here and there. My wife and I moved here to start a business in 2004. People from the upper Midwest always asked, why did you move from Illinois. My answer was very simple. Illinois became a blue state. Oklahoma is a red state. Every county in the state voted against Obama. As HD would say, go USA. I’m sorry that you have such a poor and pitifull outlook from your perch, where ever you reside. Can’t say that I’m a very big fan of yours, until you understand that we are a country of one. Not bi costal.

    • Young Tom says:

      Coastal. Seems you are good at making typing mistakes.

    • fionamargaret says:

      YT, if we are indeed a country of one, why would it matter who other folks voted for?
      Embrace the difference.

      • Young Tom says:

        Have always have and will always be appreciative of the voice of the people. Doesn’t mean I have to agree with the outcome. Just monitor and adjust.

      • fionamargaret says:

        YT, I don’t call it monitor and adjust – by leaving state for the reasons outlined verges on prejudice, and we all know it comes in many forms.

      • budfox9450 says:

        This is a stock market link, right?
        Fiona – maybe differences lie, in our core

      • +1 Fiona, good for you.

        My belief says the number of pigments in the skin doesn’t count (just look where Jesus was from) and it’s not right to kill things just because we can.

        Just because a bunch of people believe in something, it doesn’t make it right.


    • CB says:

      Thanks YT. Great point about the people in your state.. The more challenging the weather, the more classy the folks who have to deal with it it seems- it builds character. Appreciate conservative point of view as well. Just dont like the weather, the humidity…that’s all. Sorry if you took it any other way.

      • Young Tom says:

        Nice response, perhaps you are a class act.

      • Young Tom says:

        Really no humidity most of the time. Not like Houston.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Now, now. Geez, I go out to dinner with a friend and come home to find this! LOL! YT, why don’t you compare Dallas to Houston; you’ll find Houstonians BY FAR, more friendly and welcoming. In how many cities do those of us who take Park and Ride bus thank the driver when we disembark? I’ve never bad anything bad about OK. granted, I don’t like tornados, but OK doesn’t want hurricanes either. Speaking of hurricanes,,,

        Remember all those people displaced by Katrina? Did OK take them? NO! Did Dallas take them, NO! Houston took them in, and unfortunately, couldn’t get them all to go home afterward, but, we helped them. BTW, numerous Katrina victims dumped their small children in shelters here in HOUSTON and disappeared, Guess whose apt. some of them ended up living in? I’ll give you 3 guesses, but bet you only need one. M, in HOUSTON!

      • mkmason2013 says:

        CORRECTION: I’ve never said anything bad about OK. (I’m tired.)

      • Young Tom says:

        We’re you ever asked to serve for your country? Going to war is a horrible thing, and having to participate is even worse. The human soul and mind is shaped by many factors, and that is one of the worst to have to deal with. Prejudices come in many forms as you stated. I have my own belief system, and it comes from collective experiences. Not all of them line up with others, but I have granted myself, and earned the right to be whom I am. God bless every human being on this planet. The USA is very special, but so is every where else.

      • talon1963 says:

        Dang M, I wake up to see you trashing my fair city. And for your information, we did take our fair share of Katina refugees…. we just didn’t let them stay :)

    • wcagle says:

      If I can chime in here. I live in the 4 state area of Missouri….neighbor to Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas and just a skip & hop down to Texas. Spent lots of time in all these states shopping & playing golf and consider them all a part of my family. I’ve also visited many of the other states and find people on the East Coast the least friendly of all. My brother in law is an attorney in Boston and he definitely has different views from us living here in the middle of “GOD’S COUNTRY”….Could it possibly be that it stems from our “wild west” reputation?

    • budfox9450 says:

      YT – understand. I was back to Marquette Park.
      Not so long ago, not as nice today, as it was when
      I was 10…

  48. MSFT, INTC and GOOG have done a great job of putting more bricks in the wall of worry. It’s needed if market has to get above 1700. Minor 3 has and is extending.

  49. Thanks, Tony. Question, please: With your experience and where we are in the market, what is the trigger for you to say, “Going short.” NOTE: Perhaps this is also proprietary. I am a student of yours and if this is a proprietary question, may I ask you to, please, advise that I should post this question to your private forum instead. Thank you in advance for your guidance.

    • tony caldaro says:

      not proprietary Jedi
      As you know it is not advisable to short bull markets.
      However, since the largest pullback, during this entire uptrend has been 22 points.
      The overbought rally after a decline of more than 22 points could be a good setup.

  50. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    another data pt not to see at new high

  51. StemSki says:

    Thanks Tony for being down to Earth as always. I was looking at the intermediate waves that make up Major Wave 3 and they look to be as follows
    Int i: 1267 to 1475 (208 points)
    Int ii: 1475 to 1343 (132 points)-pretty darn close to a 61.8% retrace
    Int iii: 1343 to 1687 (344 points)-Just a tad over the common 161.8% fib of wave i
    Int iv: 1687 to 1560 (127 points)-again just a hair away from the common 38.2% retrace of iii
    Int v: 1560 to 1693 (133 points so far)-This is in the realm of the 0.618 x wave i relationship

    My 2 cents (not worth much):
    1. I clearly see why you have the 1699 and the 1779 ranges for this wave due to the 0.618 and 1.00 relationship this ranges have with wave i.
    2. I am always and I mean always wrong when it comes to these inflection points. I think its because of the relentless move that was seen from 1605 to 1687 which has me very strongly leaning toward the high at 1693 (if that is the short term high) being the end of the third wave of Minor 3.

    The Minor waves
    1: 1560 to 1627 (67 points)
    2: 1627 to 1605 (22 points)
    3: 1605 to 1713 (108 points)-projected at this time. 1.618 Fib of 1
    4: 1713 to 1672 (41 points)-38.2% retrace
    5: 1672 to 1740 (67 points)-Equal to 1

    In closing,
    Please please please read #2 above which completely guarantees that the scenario above is wrong

  52. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    not what you want to see at new highs

  53. Tony what levels are you looking at if you think minor wave 5 done today. What SPX level should we be trading lower ?

  54. Tony – you still think its possible we can hit the 1700 OEW before minor wave 5 tops ?

  55. moo42 says:

    Thanks Tony. You’re starting to get the hang of this. :)

  56. 7dayyss says:

    Thanks Tony, does the missus still find you amazing as well?!

  57. Wow those tech misses tanked the Nasdaq today. Could be the first index to roll over? Today was such a weak day overall. No follow through in the afternoon. I think I’m giving the 1699 pivot top in SPX an 80% probability. I think Tony probably nailed it with his initial call of 1699 pivot top for Int v.

    Took profit today on those /YM contracts I was long. Nasdaq today a possible topping signal. Not worth the risk to stay long at this point IMO.

    Started a first position in 166/165 August 9 debit vertical put spreads. Will be adding more if the market cooperates. They were 20 cents. If market closes Aug 9th below 165 it’s a 5 bagger. That’s not a high bar to clear. I may get Aug 2nd spreads. Could get 167/166 for the same price, with a week less time. Price and time both look in alignment to me. We’ll see. I’m hoping for one more up day tomorrow, but I’m not too sure we’ll get it.

  58. waddaguess says:

    1692-1696 was fib projection cluster. On the downside, 1673 is key level IMO. If this holds I would to consider that as minor 4 low, especially if it gets there in an abc fashion. But Tony appears to disagree…that is usually a bad thing.:) GL all. Thanks Tony.

  59. Leetired says:

    Actionable trading ideas and daily/real time observations trump updates on folks personal trades and the update on those trades then the link to when they mentioned those trades here..Just my humble opinion.
    The guys I have known in my little world who made the big bucks we’re always quick to share thoughts but not their P/L and for very good reasons:)
    Tony is the man !

    p.s I know I post a lot of crap:)

  60. mkmason2013 says:

    Bought a tad more uvxy AH’s. Will sit on it until it hatches. M

  61. davidmlamos says:

    Tony (and everyone) : Thanks for your efforts that benefit us all. This place is one of the most selfless places I have ever known.

  62. davidmlamos says:

    I was raised and went to school there. Sad but a long time coming. Maybe they can fix it. Detroit has a lot going for it.

  63. hucky2 says:

    I went long when we cleared 1686 then got out as we rolled over – made a few bucks.

    Thanks for your good work Tony
    Good luck to all.

  64. talon1963 says:

    Thanks Tony, have a good night!

  65. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    I wrote this to you today. Not making a victory lap. Goog reminds me of Nov 2007 – nuff said.
    R2k will most likely hit as a sell tmrw but who knows. Best to you – after 27 yrs of doing this, I can
    say that you have improved my patience on initiation of trade. I am still working on my selling patience.

    oneandonlyuniverse says:
    July 18, 2013 at 11:02 am
    Mr T,
    Just got my first sell on the NDX since the 6/24 low. Not advising we cancel Christmas but I shorted qqq 75.52 W/ 76.02 STOP.


    • Leetired says:

      I mentioned ur nice trade on Wednesdays update so officially ur not taking a victory lap
      Thanks for posting ur trend and counter trend thoughts .

    • tony caldaro says:

      RC pointed out early in the year top line misses were a regular theme of 2007.
      Earnings can always be fudged with a few dips into the cookie jar.
      GOOG is developing a topping pattern

  66. bouraq says:

    Updates on Euro, Aussie and DBA.
    Agriculturals ready for a good rally.

  67. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! It’s not gonna get any easier next few days is it? Haha. Unless…we have the GOOG/MSFT affect (tech sell-off) tomorrow? Should be fun…err interesting…

  68. Leetired says:

    Thanks Tony
    I enjoy reading ur stuff😛

  69. mjtplayer says:

    Breaking news: City of Detroit files for chapter 9 bankruptcy

    • Leetired says:

      I was conceived in that City rumor has it.
      Plenty of fresh water and close to Windsor Ont.
      I’m a buyer

      • rc1269 says:

        windsor… mmm…

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Going to turn it into a “Bedroom Community”? There’s money in them thangs. Look at George Mitchell and The Woodlands, TX. M

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Leesburg is good… Leesburg works. No kidding, go into a neighborhood, buy a bunch of lots. Either tear down and rebuild, or fix up. Mitchell bought thick wooded area and built from scratch; worth a bloody fortune. Only problem in attracting older crowd who can afford such a living is the cold weather. We get flocks of Snow Birds down here during the winter. Nothing you can do about the weather though. M

      • Leetired says:

        Hey M
        I think a lot of smart and well capitalized people from either the city or surrounding areas have been trying to get in the business of taking a shot in Detroit but the State and “local” government have been blocking them in the name of “social justice ” or whatever so I’ll just leave it there.
        It used to be called the Paris of the midwest and I think we need to let us vultures in:)
        Thanks for the reply

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Lee, I have few memories of Detroit when visiting some friends in MI with my Dad as a kid, but the country-side is exquisite! Beautiful woods, the Fall leaves. Lovely. I get what you’re saying. We have it here where I live now too. Wasn’t always this way. M

    • rc1269 says:

      not sure i’d call that ‘breaking’ exactly. has been expected for a while, fwiw

  70. llerias7 says:

    Tony, assuming we will reach above 1700´s in August, it means a minor 4 down next days, probably to 1665+-5 pts on spx?

  71. mjtplayer says:

    GOOG missed earnings by a mile, stock down $47 (5%) after-hours. Also, MSFT missed rev and earnings, down 4% after hours. These reports would favor the minor 5 count….

  72. mkmason2013 says:

    Uvxy now at 46. Yikes, even I didn’t expect that. Thanks GOOG! M

    • jackkendo1987 says:

      Cut 300% long with GOOG and MSFT big misses.
      Turned out to be a day of loss.

    • oneandonlyuniverse says:

      Are you aware that can go up and down ? If not, ask the school crossing guard.

    • jackkendo1987 says:

      I think I need oew tutoring.
      Has been tough weeks, keep on losing, now less buying power.

      • oneandonlyuniverse says:

        Im sorry. I was not posting to you. I was posting to Mason making light of the warning another poster gave her regarding uvxy. I am sorry if you thought that was directed to you.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        one, not making light of anyone. I did said it wasn’t only gokalg. I’ve heard the warnings over and over and over; sort of like Tony has been repeating himself over and over and over. I owe you no more explanation. M

      • mkmason2013 says:

        jack, I HIGHLY recommend OEW tutoring. I’ve been trading stocks for about 40 years and OEW has improved my trades remarkably! It will do wonders for your trading AND investing. M

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well done M – never listen to me, but I’ll stick with the market being up tomorrow (I know you aren’t listening), and Wednesday and Thursday next week. (sorry Lee for the prognostications). x

      HD, can I have a guy?

      Yenguy, you are going to have a good day soon.

      • mkmason2013 says:

        fionamargaret, I always read your posts. I hope we do get more upside, and am prepared for it. M

      • CB says:

        : ) ) Fiona, if you can get hold of a guy who can explain those Gann numbers, let us know, OK?…I am getting too old for this cryptic stuff… thanks for all the charts Fiona… appreciate it..

  73. Thanks Tony, I have been patiently waiting for your thoughts.

  74. mkmason2013 says:

    Thank you, Tony. What an exciting inflection point! (I know you must be tired with all the repetition.) M

Comments are closed.