SHORT TERM: another gap opening, DOW -209
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.0%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 Personal income was reported flat: 0.0% vs. +0.2%, Personal spending was reported lower: -0.2% vs. +0.2%, and PCE prices remained flat: 0.0% vs. 0.0%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1649. The SPX had closed at 1654 yesterday. After a quick dip to SPX 1648, the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 58.7 vs. 49.0. The market then rallied to SPX 1655 just before 10:00. After Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 84.5 vs. 83.7, the market pulled back to SPX 1648 just past 10:00. A larger rally followed to SPX 1659 by 11:30. Then the decline began. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1642, bounced to 1647 by 3:30, then dropped to 1631 and closed there. Our important medium term support at the 1636 level has been broken.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude slid $1.85, Gold dropped $27, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Last night the FED reported an expected increase in the Monetary base: $3.173 tln vs. $3.106 tln.
The market gapped down at the open for the fourth time in six trading days. After bouncing around the lows it did rally to SPX 1659 by 11:30. After that it was all downhill. We posted a tentative Intermediate iii label at the SPX 1674 high. We will review the charts and see exactly where we stand over the weekend.
Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1658-1667 and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts vacillated again today, negative-positive-negative, with the reversal level now SPX 1653. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend now probable
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Decline stopped at a perfect ABC relationship from the top, as for now it looks good. If decline continues I am out.
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Hi tore. Everyone is using Fed fears to sell. Good to know that some part of this decline looks perfect. I can handle a bit more downside, but not much. Would have to jump out and back in later. I hate that,,,
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This time of year i cant handle more than just abc declines. Its an ABC right now and if it doesnt hold we are on a 3rd wave decline. i dont want to take part in that. if season is over its over, but I hope fore one more thrust and then many more…
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I hear ya, tore. Hoping the 1628 and/or 1614 pivots hold.
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M its all about seasonality, we are approaching the funny season. I was hoping for another thrust and it may just come. But if this abc down doesnt hold I exit until the q pres buildup in 4 weeks at least. I dont want to look the “funny man in the eyes with icecream on my shirt”, not this year, lol.
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All I know is that if indices are headed toward 50SMA, do I ever have a shopping list should it get near that area!
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Call me crazy but I think we’re still in Minute iv. Minute ii was a shallow running flat, IMO, so it would make since that Minute iv would be a deeper retrace. We haven’t even hit the 61% retrace of Minute iii yet.
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More decline — agreed. Steep uptrend would suggest a 61% retracement for Minute iv. Good luck to all. THANKS, TONY, for ALL you do! 🙂
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I believe turn was Tuesday,when we gapped up and couldn’t hold,same on Thursday,now Bullish Friday dump not good
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Candle on TLT you say…….maybe candles on all of them soon.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/?utm_source=McClellan+Chart+In+Focus+-&utm_campaign=5b377e358a-CIF_M2_s_Slow_Growth_5_31_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9e79f8200f-5b377e358a-151432569
Let’s all go to the pub – enough already.
Thanks Tony.
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and that TLT hit it’s 8 month long TL at $113
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+1111, at least that many for me today, fm.
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Regarding that high-margin debt ratio chart one thing to keep in mind is that we haven’t heard of margin requirements being increased yet. That’s always good for another 2 to 4% drop
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TLT is up to $115 after hours
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Spot on lunker1.
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Thanks, Tony.
I won’t even try to suggest what it may have ended at 1687. Now the market looks is under pressure.
I will be waiting for your views in your weekend update.
Have a great evening.
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The alert mode turned ON on wednesday.
But Honestly, I was expecting the market holding above 1637 for a few more days.
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C=A=1622.5
C=1.62A=1591
both areas were previous S/R
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Dow H&S target ~ 14970
THANKS TONY! 😀
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Thanks Tony!
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well at least you weren’t stopped out of your TNA. GL!
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Nope. I’m still well enough above it that unless Monday’s PM shows to be decidedly down, I’m holding it. GL lunker and to All!
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Even then, the entry price was so nice, I might buy more if the price goes low enough. I sold half when it popped on Tuesday, so I’m okay.
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“We posted a tentative Intermediate iii label at the SPX 1674 high. We will review the charts and see exactly where we stand over the weekend.”
Thanks Tony
I was just joking about Emerald Triangle I think that’s down the road in KY a bit.
But the Shawnee National Forest has some sesonal gardeners
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I think all forests do! LOL 😀
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I want to party with you Lunker 😉
Well done guys and let’s have fun out there
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Watch those booby traps in the forest. They aim to kill. Otherwise, ENJOY!
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Like it’s 1999 😀
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Lee,
Did not know that =)
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You can’t blame everything on KY, Leetired, even though we do have McConnell and Rand Paul. Check this out:
“The Emerald Triangle refers to a region in Northern California so named because it is the largest region in the United States that produces cannabis for the legal use in California.”
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Thank You Tony!
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