thursday update

SHORT TERM: market rebounds, DOW +22

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.7% – mostly Japan. European markets opened lower but gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported lower: +2.4% vs. +2.5%, and weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 354K vs. 340K. The market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 1648 close. In the first few minutes it dipped to SPX 1649 then started to rally. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported positive: +0.3% vs. +1.5%, and the SPX hit 1659. After a pullback to SPX 1654 by 11:30 the market headed even higher. Around 3:00 the SPX hit 1662, then pulled back to 1654 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude added 45 cents, Gold rallied $19, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the OEW 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer sentiment at 9:55. Also the FED will release a statistical report on the finance companies.

The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 1662, then pulled back to close at 1654. What started off as a promising rally, gave back most the gains in the last hour of trading. The recent choppy activity in the market continues. Should a diagonal Minute wave v be underway, the market should rally above SPX 1674 in the next few days. If it heads lower. Remember SPX 1636 is a key level for this uptrend. A drop below this level would suggest the uptrend ended at SPX 1687.

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1658-1667 and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum never hit overbought today, and ended below neutral. The short term OEW charts continue to vacillate, ending the day negative with the reversal level now SPX 1656. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

193 Responses to thursday update

  1. lunker1 says:

    C=A 1622.5
    C=1.62A 1591
    both areas are also previous S/R


  2. M1 says:

    That’s the way the market likes to erase any possible wave count.
    Now, we may suggest interm wave iii is already in place. In a couple of weeks this may have to be adjust and be count as major wave 3… and so on.
    Fortunately, we have Tony to confirm these adjusts on the count. This is not easy.
    Two loss trades in a row. Time to be in cash.


  3. If the clownery at wall street continues,this was a perfect close for SPX 1670 target next week.


  4. lunker1 says:

    fancy looking candle on TLT


  5. M1 says:

    Done. Stops were hit.


  6. mkmason2013 says:

    Too coincidental. Let’s chase everyone out, lower the prices as much as possible, so Fundies can come in on Monday and buy cheaper. Might be over-simplified, but that’s what I think.


Comments are closed.