SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -107
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. European markets opened lower and lost 1.8%. US index futures were much lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1651. The SPX had closed at 1660 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1646, bounced to 1653 by 10:00, then dropped to 1640 by 11:00. After getting quite oversold it then tried to rally. By noon the SPX had hit 1648, then pulled back to 1642 by 1:00, and rallied to 1654 by 2:00. After that it pulled back into a SPX 1648 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.80, Gold rose $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow: Q1 GDP (est.+2.7%) at 8:30, along with weekly Jobless claims. Then at 10:00 Pending home sales.
The market gapped down at the open today, for the fourth gap opening in a row. The last time the market experienced this kind of volatility was in late March. Then it had six gap openings in a row, while it was forming the fifth wave, (diagonal triangle), of Minute iii of Minor 3. Are we experiencing the early stages of a diagonal Minute v of Minor 5? Then, the key area to watch was 1536/39. Now, the key area to watch is 1636/37. Odd right?
Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1667 range and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning, then rebounded to neutral. The short term OEW charts flipped negative again at the open with the reversal level now SPX 1654. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend struggling
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
LOL. This continues to be a fool’s market.Almost the entire day’s move was done in the 5 min bar from 9:45 to 9:50- SPX 1652 to 1658 and then it continued to play a game of chicken run the whole session.
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Fibtasmic 1661/62
1661 the 50% of 1687->1635.50
1661 the 61.8% of 1674->1640
1662 the 23.6% of 1581->1687 (wave 3)
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Thanks lunk! Clearly an important level. We have to get through it, hopefully by Mon or Tues latest.
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1654/55 might as low as she goes. more fibs.
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and 1653
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Hope 1653’s the low for this, lunker. Looks like profit-taking right now…
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I think this ED at 1662 was the end of wave 3 from 1640 and now retracing to the 4 of 3 at 1654.
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Hmm. I expected a longer w3 of minute 5, lunker. If what you say is so, a truncation of w5 might be the case. If I remember correctly, w1 was pretty large, and if w3 can not be the shortest…
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lunker1 says:
May 30, 2013 at 2:56 pm
I think this ED at 1662 was the end of wave 3 from 1640 and now retracing to the 4 of 3 at 1654.
lunk, do you mean 4 of 3, or 4 of 5 (minute)?
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if 4 ended at 1654 and then if 5=1 then this wave from 1640 stops at 1662 or 5=1.62×1 = 1667. unless it subdivides. when this wave ends 1662/67 would expect the larger wave 2 to retrace 38-62% the larger wave 3. PS the VIX closed inside it daily BB so step 2 of the SPX buy is complete. need to wait 30min to see what NYMO prints for a close.
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Ok, thanks lunker. Glad to hear vix now inside BB. I’ve been watching vix etf’s and no fear there, so, perhaps it’s a go.
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I’m only speaking about the wave since 1640
w1 1648
w2 1642
w3 1662
w4 1654 (4 of w3 at 1654)
w5 targets 1662 and 1667 unless subdivides.
then a 38-62% retrace of the 1640 – ? for the larger wave 2 before the larger wave 3 starts.
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Okay, then, I’m on a different wave count, lunk. I’m counting the action today as start of w3 up of minute 5 of minor 5 of int. 3. Where are you?
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ok, I get what you’re saying, lunker. Thanks very much!
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RUT outperforming SPX by quite a bit. Spx looking rather nasty…Watching 1653 as you said.
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intraday today and yest looks kinda like an ED / ascending wedge to me. apologies if somebody already mentioned that. haven’t had a chance to browse much today
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Scroll down past the chat and bulletin board.
http://doctorboom.blogspot.com/
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To expand on Tony’s Minute v diagonal hypothesis, the 60 minute RSI is starting to look very similar to the RSI pattern from the March diagonal. A break above 1674 with a lower 60 minute RSI would add a lot of weight to this pattern, I would think.
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Dear Senor Caldaro
I am always learning new stuff on your great blog….today I mostly learned about fishing,
🙂
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Juaren,
Give a man a fish and he will be hungry the next day
Teach a man to fish …
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I sure hope this paint dries soon, ’cause I have some grass to watch grow. Meanwhile, as I was trying to take a bite out Apple, Apple done bit me back. Made some dough on crude but lost some shorting the miners, so all in all, I’d have done better to have not done anything at all today. I have a screaming headache, so unless this half bottle of aspirin I just ate works fast and well, I’ll be done and in the red for the day.
I’ve said it before, it ain’t easy being green …
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CN, sorry to hear of your maladies. Swallow 2 frogs and call me in the morning…
“Mama said there’d be days like this…”
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And I’d also like to know who was the smarty pants that bought the AAPL May 31 450 calls this morning for a mere 10 pennies and which just traded traded at $4 – ten pennies to 400 pennies would be a nice quarter if you ask me.
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CN, no kidding! A tidy profit on aapl! Wish I could claim it, but alas, I cannot. I could accuse wcagle of it though (because she’s not here…).
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CN….That has to be a mispricing on Apple 450/May 31 calls at .10. The same strike/time price for the emini’s on Apple was 1.01. Don’t think those traded at .10…., but worth checking with your broker to make sure.
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Okay, I’m BUSTED! LOL! Hope you’re having a nice vacation, wcagle
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