SHORT TERM: volatile day to start the week, DOW +106
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%, but declined -0.4% on Monday. European markets opened higher, gained 1.4% after gaining 1.0% on Monday. US index futures were quite a bit higher overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported higher housing prices: +10.9% vs. +9.3%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1661 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1650 on Friday. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 76.2 vs. 68.1. The rally continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 1674. Then the market started to pullback. After a fairly large pullback to SPX 1655 by 2:30, the market bounced to 1663 by 3:30. Then pulled back to end this volatile day at SPX 1660.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds lost 38 ticks, Crude gained 95 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Nothing on the economic schedule tomorrow.
The market gapped up this morning for the first time since May 17th. That gap up also started after a SPX 1650 close the previous trading day. The rally continued to SPX 1674, then was followed by a big pullback to 1655. Nothing like a little excitement to start the trading week. With the opening rally above SPX 1653 the SPX turned short term positive. We marked the SPX 1637 low as the end of Minute wave iv of Minor 5. Now we are expecting Minute wave v to rally the market to new highs. The first target would be the recent SPX 1687 high, then the OEW 1699 pivot. Any drop below SPX 1636 would suggest Minute v failed at 1674.
Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1667 zone and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s high, then dropped to neutral during the pullback. The short term OEW charts are now positive with the reversal level around SPX 1655. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
gold goes nicely, think bottom is in…
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at least a descent retrace, top testing or at best continuation of the bull…heck all countries print and gold is at production costs right now. leveraged bet is the miners and especially the juniors. I stick to my nugts.
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Production costs?
If so Tore those miners will be out of business in no time.
Think production is more around the $800 – $1000 level.
Silver production costs are less than $5.
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Other than that PSDV got good news, now 2 global pharmas is looking at their products, possibility of a licence agreement ? Arrowhead has based for a long time and is ready to explode…
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Tony, from what I have heard the juniors arent making any money in mining at these prices. if this info is wrong, thanks for correcting me !
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Tore, it could be right.
And those juniors could be gone in a few years
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Tony maybe I am talking for my sick mother, lol. But at any rate I have some confidence in the ABC (from top of gold at 1890) beeing finished. Lets see how it plays out, but my impression is that many small miners are at the bottom as they axe jobs, scale down and halts explorations.
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Understood.
Have been waiting for a rally too, on gold though
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Tore
You advance this stuff so we suppose you have the proff.
How come you ask Tony to prove you’r wrong
This affirmation doesn’t help anyone if you can’t prove it
where did you take that stuff
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Taci I took it from a board on nugt, thought it was sound knowledge, then I read news headlines from some juniors that dragged this concept in the same direction. Whats obvious is that these miners dont thrive as of today given the current price of gold. It could very well be that the lesser miners arent profitable on these prices and are at the verge of BK.
Foremost I evaluate wave patterns, and then I make up a general impression on the fundamentals.It could be that current gold price doesnt stimulate further exploration and that this puts a floor….
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nice NUGT trade, tore!
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Thanks CB, even as churning kills the 3x products, I will try to ride nugt for some time. There are descent chance that gold has bottomed out but evaluating long patterns isnt so easy to ascertain….extensions of a downtrend also respect EW..I went in too early on the uranium plays and have taken a hit. Now there is sign of an uptrend in progress. In EW if ones count doesnt stick, it isnt bad counting its just that pattern isnt mature. Ideally one should wait until the motive waves start but it isnt easy to jump on a fast train moving…When I get better I will do just that !
Alternative long count: If macd values approach the opposite in the positive as it was negative at botton in 2009 it could reach 1000 + and Prechter would get his ABC up, count. Then A up, corrective ABC X 2 down, and then an equally steep C as long as A. Just playing with that geometry brings SP 500 to 2100 area. Its a pattern I keep in the closet for now. Its a sad pattern, as such a large ABC would take years to retrace down..But if it plays out its as sure a short as the long play starting in march 2009.
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The long count alternative is on SP 500, based on the macd patterns from 2009 bottom until 2013-20014. It would make a final bottom to the dollar and be an excellent shorting opportunity, maybe it would retrace in a 5 wave structure pretty far into the 2009 bottom area. And possible make a retest on the gold price.top.
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correcting, minus 100 in 2009 on macd, and the abc up long count could reach + 100 at top not 1000…
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very nice work, tore! & Thanks for sharing. Looks like smooth sailing for a little ..at least to 12.5 perhaps (?) GL with ur trade!
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took some profits on SPX. hit the medianline on the set from 1635.5 to 1674. I think we’ll move lower into the close.
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need the VIX to close outside its daily BB.
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lunker, looks like you made a pretty good call for EOB today. Please let us know what happens w/vix BB. Thanks! M
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OK, we are seeing high-yields, REITs, utilities and other interest-rate sensitive sectors underperform as interest rates slowly move up. Do you guys know of sectors that usually perform well in a rising rate environment? – Thanks guys.
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My only concern is that CN isn’t here blogging about a “BIG UP”… Hmm.
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I will not likely see evidence of a potential Big Up before 1597. I still think 1597 before June opex is likely. There is one scenario under which a Big Up might form (one which one could “predict,” that is – a Big Up can start anytime) and that scenario would be that SPX undersuts its 5/23 low, closes above that low, and then trades above its 5/28 high. A dip below 1535 and then a close above it would get me long. Otherwise, I need the market to give me some additional information in the form of price/volume action.
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