monday update

SHORT TERM: OEW 1680 pivot range reached, DOW -19

Saturday FED chairman Bernanke gave the following speech: Overnight Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and the market opened one point under Friday’s SPX 1667 record close. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1668, then pulled back to 1665 before starting to rally again around 10:00. Around noon the SPX entered the OEW 1680 pivot range when it hit 1673. Then it started to pullback. The pullback hit SPX 1664 at 2:00, the market then bounced to 1668 by 3:00, before dipping to close at 1666.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude gained 60 cents, Gold rallied $40, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Nothing on the economic agenda tomorrow.

The market opened about flat today, bounced around a bit, and then made all time new highs again. At the high, SPX 1673, the SPX entered the OEW 1680 pivot range (1673-1687). Then it had a notable pullback to SPX 1664. While the market did clear the resistance at SPX 1666-1667. It has now run into another series of resistance levels within the 1680 pivot range. Todays’ pullback does look like it could be the start of Minute iv of Minor 5. A decline into the SPX low 1660’s could get it started. Then a further decline below SPX 1650 would all but confirm it.

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1667 range and the 1680 pivot. At today’s highs momentum displayed a negative divergence and momentum dropped to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1649. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1673

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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56 Responses to monday update

  1. torehund says:

    Dry bulk and shipping starting to get some traction, retracement rally or motivated waves, havent studied it yet, lets see how it plays out. For those that is on the sidelines in this sector and want a balance sheet of near perfection, Euroseas is a stellar play. Solid as Diana shipping and still “geared” as these small shippers are…

    • torehund says:

      ESEA got dumped from 3 to 1 usd some time ago for no apparent reason, should go back there soon, and gives a small dividend.

    • tony caldaro says:

      DSX earnings tomorrow

      • torehund says:

        Tony last Q had terrible rates, but Diana is the most rock solid of them….Eseas still pays a small dividend that due to low stock valuation still gives 6 percent annually. Would like to

  2. mkmason2013 says:

    CN, haven’t seen you around lately. You okay?

  3. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Congrats to all who have remained long this market. Really remarkable job Mr. Tony . If your Long/short/sidelines(me) we all have a lot to be grateful for.

  4. Cliff Uzan says:

    Hi Tony,

    Is it possible minute wave 4 started and ended in two days and only 9 points and now we are in minute wave 5?

  5. New highs been made. Going higher.

  6. gokalg says:

    U mentioned that perhaps min iii is complete with 1673. We are in iv with a drop of about 10 points or so. now we again heading towards 1670+ area. If we exceed 1573 now does it mean iii may not be complete yet or u think it could be signaling that iv is over and we may have enrted v. Please shed some light on this. Always appreciate your analysis and opinion

  7. Tony

    What will be confirmation for you that the uptrend has ended and the correction has begun? What are you looking for – a move down below some special levels or ?

    • mkmason2013 says:

      HI ca. The info. Tony gives that I use for this is in the paragraph just above your note, in every Update. Reversal level is now 1649 (as of Monday Update). Hope that helps.

      • I just dont get it , because he mentioned in weekend he was looking for a small wave 4 to 1640-1650 before a move to 1680 in wave 5??

        But then 1649 will then say top in or ? You see i’m confused

      • mkmason2013 says:

        ca, will have to let Tony answer for himself, but recalling an answer he gave sometime last week, the reversal level is just that, a reversal level. Whether anyone can call ‘THE top’, I don’t know. I suspect not. Sorry I can’t be of more assist to you.

  8. scorp100 says:

    Namaste, Tony. A question on GREK – looks like a pullback is going on. Any target price?

  9. gokalg says:

    Tony is it possible that we might have finished pull back iv yesterday and have started v targeting 1680 already

  10. Hi Tony

    Looking at R2K chart seems like wave 5 is ending soon. Do you have any estimates for potential top targets on R2K?


  11. 5wavemodel says:

    Thanks Tony. I have enjoyed all of your recent work. Although I am still trying to digest some of it. I appreciate all of your hard work.


  12. gokalg says:

    tony assuming iii is over at 1673 and iv is underway after a drop of about 7+ points what is the min target for v ( today’s high?) and max is perhaps under 1687 . Are my assumptions correct Thanks

  13. capi25 says:


    Could you explain why do you privilege an unusual mo 3 shorter than mo 1 at this point.

  14. Tony, don’t think minute iii is over yet.

  15. hucky2 says:

    Last week I mentioned that odds favoured minor weakness Monday or Tuesday – starting and finishing below the previous close satisfies that already. Wednesday & Thursday should be a little weaker though.

  16. bhtrade says:

    Always such level-headed, unbiased analysis. So glad I have stumbled across this site – thanks Tony!

  17. rc1269 says:

    you’ve been a prolific poster lately – thanks!

  18. lunker1 says:

    the 1659 A=C discussed also tests support of the 60min candle bodies I mentioned last week. and then the question is 1659 A=C, or a=c with a final C target for 1640’s with prior 4 at 1649.

    • CB says:

      nice calculations lunker, thanks. Ur end result wouldalso align nicely w/out rising 50 ma intraday. We need to take out 1661 first though….wouldn’t certainty be nice? 😉

      Thanks Tony!

  19. Tony, just want to say thanks for the fantastic posts recently. Have a great rest of the week 🙂

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