SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +21
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +9.3% vs. +8.1%. The market opened at SPX 1593, one point below yesterday’s close. In the first few minutes it bounced to SPX 1594 and then started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.0 vs. 52.4, and at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 68.1 vs. 59.7. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1587, for a 10 point pullback from yesterday’s high, then began to rally. Around 1:00 the SPX hit 1597, pulled back 3 points, and then closed at a new high 1598.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude dropped $1.45, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00, then the FOMC statement in the afternoon.
The market opened about flat today, then dipped to 1587 before retesting the SPX 1597 high yet again. This has been a tough uptrend to decipher to say the least. After a closer look at the short term charts, up to and including the daily, we see two possible counts. And the DOW B wave rally does not appear to be one of them. The count posted on the SPX charts displays the uptrend is in Minute v of Minor 3, with Minor waves 4 and 5 to go. The DOW charts now display Minor waves 1 thru 4 completed, and we are now in Minor 5. The OEW 1552 pivot range is the key level to watch going forward. And, the first trading day in May has marked the uptrend high over the past two years. Tomorrow should be interesting.
Short term support is at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Short term momentum bounced between overbought and just below neutral today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1582. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: Intermediate iii topping or extending
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
Hi Tony, I know a while back when the Dow made all time new highs over 2007 you stated something like, the last time the Dow the made new highs back in 2006 it rallied 2400+ points over it’s 2000 high and the duration of the rally was ~2yrs. I wanted to comment that when the $SPX broke out to new highs in 2007 from it’s 2000 highs it rallied ~23 points to the next top in the secular bear market. The $SPX hit a new intraday high today that was ~22 points above it’s previous 2007 high. I’m in the 10% camp, that your original count was and is spot on. I guess we will find out in due time.
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cheers PC
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http://t.co/xwtCBn88qe So in EDT(from yesterday) we look for complete retrace in 1/2 time confirmation under 1577.56 Good trades all!
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splain Willis? danke
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which part lunker?
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EDT? ending diagonal tri?
looking for retrace down to 2 or 4?
in half the the time the tri took?
confirmation of what under 77.56 and why that number?
THANKS! 😀
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Yes
ii
Yes
This confirms terminal pattern for my rules. It’s takes out the ii and then should trade the previous 4. I hope that helps. I kinda have my own EW mashup of methods.
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HD … whatever works is good
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TYVM!
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Tony you forgot to put the Red line on the neg D, yesterday.
That’s why everyone is confused today. 😉
Thanks Tony
GT
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For me. Wave counting is not my specialty.
It is then, for me, nice to know info.
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was wondrin bout that last night. thought he was maybe waitin for confirmation today…
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GT,
Caught me slacking again.
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+1
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Nice hit! we were do. Great call Tony! R3 15. TY.
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Like “He said ” ™ 2013
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I hope it just gets completely nutty!
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At 3pm EDT – The VAY and SP500 BoYu indicator, had moved to a sell
signal….Markets, can reverse intraday, so be advised a sell signal, ncan be
erased by a market advance, prior to the close….
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I am assuming, Intermediate W4 low, is completed at 1536.
And all we need is a completed 5 wave move up, to end the
up trend, to P-3????
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M3
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bud, you still showing sell signal?
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Tony, wouldn’t it be odd if the next correction starts again before 1614 is visited?
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TS,
What would be odd is that this uptrend keeps going and going.
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Those odds are less than your pivot getting a visit hence the dilemma 😉
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to get to 1614 would maybe need one more test of the 1576 pivot. 1569/70 would create nicely stacking daily candle bodies off of the March 28 to April 9 resistance.
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maybe a gap up to 1601 in the AM to make one of those megaphone thingamajiggies
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yes, we can : )
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Hope it’s a big gap up.
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Here is to you M big 1601 tomorrow after the smoke clears today,went long 158.55 SnP 160 C 5-10
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pooch, only if Draghi cuts int. rates. If he doesn’t, it’s a no go.
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I agree,he cuts,1614 Friday
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Pooch, can I ask how many contracts you trade in those weekly spidy call? thx!
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Only 35 today
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then why not trade ES, with the premiums you paid for SPY May 160C, 35X , you can afford 42 points (1 futures contract), if you are wrong.
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Hi Tony
any chance of B ?
if not what will be the support level for Int Iv. say 1552 ?
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1523
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watch the Bonds also ..IMHO
The bondsare the red headed step child of blog discussions lately …hmmm 😉
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hey!!
heh. 🙂
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Ur my bond guy
R C !
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