thursday update

SHORT TERM: rebound continues near highs, DOW +25

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 339K vs. 352K. The market opened higher at SPX 1582, bounced to 1585, pulled back to 1581, and then resumed its rally. The SPX had closed at 1579 yesterday. Around 2:00 the SPX hit 1593, 4 points below the 1597 bull market high, and then began to pullback. The pullback lasted until just before the close when the SPX hit 1583. Then a small bounce ended the day at SPX 1585.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude gained $1.75, Gold rallied $32, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at the 1614 and 1628 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +2.9%) at 8:30, (it was +3.2% last weekend), then Consumer sentiment at 10:00.

The market opened higher today, bounced around a bit, then pushed our B wave scenario to its limit by approaching new bull market highs. Quite unusual for a B wave in this bull market. However, when Intermediate wave ii got underway in Oct12, it too had a strong B wave rally before rolling over. Martin, in our OEW group, proposed an alternate count suggesting Minor 3 of Int. iii is still unfolding. Should the SPX/DOW make new highs, this count appears more probable than others we have been emailed.

Short term support remains at the 1576 and 1552 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1597 and the 1614 pivot. Short term momentum only dropped to neutral off a negative divergence. Then setup another negative divergence at today’s high, and has dropped to neutral so far. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1572. Best to your trading, this has been on relentless uptrend!

MEDIUM TERM: B wave rally or Intermediate iii continues

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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110 Responses to thursday update

  1. CygnetNoir says:

    Should this rally continue, and should it supass 1614, I’d like to submit 1648 as a possible target. The Dow and SPX have etched out a possible continuation pattern 1597 – 1536 – 1592 that would place a measured move target close to 1650 SPX. Think of it as something of an inverted H&S … not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination, but it is worth noting nonetheless.


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