thursday update

SHORT TERM: no gap opening, but new highs: DOW +52

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened higher and closed +0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported higher: +0.4% vs +0.1%, but weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 357K vs 336K. The market opened at SPX 1564, dipped to 1561 in the first few minutes, then moved higher. The market had closed at SPX 1563 yesterday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 52.4 vs 56.8. At 11:30 the market hit a new high at SPX 1568. Then after a pullback to SPX 1564 by 12:30 the market moved higher again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1570, then pulled back to 1569 to end the day/week/month/quarter.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude gained 55 cents, Gold slid $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending, PCE prices and Consumer sentiment will be reported, but the market is closed.

The market opened higher today, then made a new uptrend high before 11:00. It has been quite a run from mid-November and SPX 1343 to 1570 today. The all time high is SPX 1576. Q4 GDP came as expected so it was non-event. Despite today’s rally the market is still within the rising triangle we have been tracking, but at the upper limit. This uptrend just keeps in ticking. We will give a holiday update tommorow, then review all the charts for the weekend update.

Short term support remains at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1558. Enjoy your holiday!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high at SPX 1570

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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68 Responses to thursday update

  1. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, on Thursday you wrote: “Despite today’s rally the market is still within the rising triangle we have been tracking, but at the upper limit.”
    If I’m seeing 60 min chart correctly, we seem to be slightly exceeding upper limit today. Does it mean minor 5 is further extending, or rising triangles could rise above the limit and still be technically intact?

    Like

  2. wildmarkets says:

    Tony, I do not understand one thing in your apple count. If you are saying that aapl topped out at 5th wave (on your daily chart) then don’t you see apple going lower in the 5 wave fashion to finish wave 1 than ABC which I see in your charts? I am confused. Also how much % retracement bounce you see in apple after putting in the bottom of C wave? My question might seem dumb but I do not know wave theory in detail 🙂
    Thanks.

    Like

    • tony caldaro says:

      WM,
      There has been a misconception about bear markets by some that use EW.
      There is no historical data, that can be quantified by OEW, to make that claim.
      Bear markets do not unfold in five waves. The reason for the labeling.

      Like

      • cwallace90 says:

        Have to step in here. “Bear Markets do not unfold in five waves.” Correct. However, the waves of LOWER DEGREE within the three wave structure of a bear market can, and often times are, five waves.Therefore, if we have three cycle waves down into a bear market low, yes, you can see five waves down in primary degree. But, the larger degree of bear market is still three waves.

        Like

  3. wildmarkets says:

    Tony, Do you know if your count on Apple stock matches Pug Stock market analysis? (blog posted on your list at the right side).
    Anyone knows what count does that blog have on Apple?
    Thanks.

    Like

    • nee123 says:

      sorry Wildmarkets but I don’t see any respect in your question for Tony’s work- don’t you trust he comes to his analysis independently without trying to match anyone else’s counts?
      We are here to learn about Tony’s work, if I were you I’d go & check others work myself if interested, nobody here – definitely not Tony- has the responsibility to check them out for you.

      Like

      • wildmarkets says:

        You need ask your inner-self before you point out finger on anyone. We all think in a different way as we have different brains. Even my brain thinks about some particular stuff in many different ways, then who are you to judge what I think!

        It was a simple forward question. I did not mean to disrespect Tony in any way! It is better to think before you reply or keep quiet which is much wise idea! I am not writing this because I felt bad. Just telling you 🙂

        Like

      • nee123 says:

        sorry I don’t know which planet you are from!!

        Like

      • wildmarkets says:

        Sorry to you as well if you felt bad. Peace 🙂

        Like

    • tony caldaro says:

      WM,
      Have no clue, never visit anyone’s site.

      Like

  4. 5wavemodel says:

    When the market moved above 1565.50, it signalled a breakout to the upside. The most likely scenario is now a pullback to 1557, another rise to 1574, and then a drop to 1548. There should still be some further upside from there.

    Thanks,
    Steve
    http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2013/03/thursdays-market-03282013.html

    Like

  5. Young Tom says:

    If you were an Ariizona fan,
    Waste of a good strip steak, grilled asparagus, and a good bottle of Bourdeaux. Lets go get em on Monday!
    YT

    Like

    • fbender7 says:

      YT – I am an Arizona fan. The game started out great, but turnovers got us again. I can only hope that next year with TJ McConnell as point guard will make us an even better team.

      Like

  6. budfox9450 says:

    Young Tom…..wow your a weather fan, student of Meteorolgy, or
    a NWS employee. Me? No degree in Met. but have studied weather
    since I was 10. Took my 1st weather radar ob (using CPS 3) at 15, at NWS office
    at Midway airport in Chicago. Then later went on to ATC and then Aviation
    Weather Briefing….go some stories to tell you on briefing the public,
    if you want to hear them…..

    Like

  7. 5wavemodel says:

    I have been following Tony’s blog for several years, and have posted here, on and off, for just over a year. I have found the vast majority of people here to be intelligent, articulate, courteous, and civil. The experience level runs the gamut from beginner, to professional, and Tony has been gracious enough to allow everyone to voice their opinion. Most understand that the views given are opinions, and should be considered as such. As with everything else, it is one’s own responsibility to do their own due diligence.

    Every once in a while, somebody posts outside of the accepted protocol of this blog. They are generally looking for a reaction, perhaps out of some need for attention, or to further some other agenda. When they receive that attention, they stay until the attention wanes. Some times it is best to not give them the attention from the beginning. Easier said when one is not the subject of attack I know, but still salient advice.

    From what I have seen, first and foremost, people congregate here because of their well deserved respect of Tony. He is by far the best I have seen. But I believe they also come here for the exchange of ideas found here. Debate is essential to further one’s ideas, not the CNBC type debates of screaming and yelling, but the intelligent exchange of ideas. I find it enlightening to listen to everyone’s ideas. Sometimes you are able to see something you had not seen before, and it may change your ideas. Sometimes it reinforces your original idea. Either way it is helpful.

    This exchange should occur in an environment free of attack or ridicule. If one disagrees with an opinion, offer an alternate view. Again, Tony, and the other posters here, have done an excellent job of creating an environment where everyone’s opinions are respected, and welcomed equally. I have not seen anyone who been 100% correct (although Lee comes close ), but everyone obviously gives a great deal of thought to their posts. The wide range of opinions, and expertise, make this one of the best sites for anyone interested in the market.

    I just felt I needed to say that.

    Thanks,
    Steve

    Like

    • tony caldaro says:

      Thanks Steve,
      We all appreciate those comments.

      Like

      • CB says:

        Great points, Steve. And thanks for sharing your excellent work with us.

        Would it be possible for you Steve to ask Tony to post a link to your site here again? Thank you both!

        Like

      • CB says:

        meant the blogroll…sorry if I wasn’t clear b4.

        Like

      • 5wavemodel says:

        Thanks Tony. Thanks CB. You were clear. I have a fear of coming off as pushy, and sometimes think my work is sub-par, but I will put in such a request.

        Steve

        Like

      • CB says:

        Thanks Steve. We’ll all appreciate it very much. Ur a modest person & it’s a great virtue. You may already know or will be happy to realize that, quite often, people who tend to have such fears often push themselves harder in life & achieve quite extraordinary results. And based on the work you’ve kindly shared with us before, let me reassure you that your fears are totally unjustified & your work is excellent. Also it’s great that you are able to share ur fears with others as it gives you a chance to get feed-back & overcome those irrational fears. You’re doing something good for urself by doing this & U are quite brave & unique that way. Lots of people choose to keep their fears hidden which makes them suffer more & they cheat themselves out of an amazing opportunity to move past their fears. Nothing overcomes fear better than bringing things out in the open. Amazingly, just some basic self-awareness becomes that split-second turning point that transforms our biggest challenge into our biggest strength. If only people realized ..that instead of hitting the escape button, dancing with the unknown & letting uncomfortable things bubble up to the surface can be really good for us…sorry abt this guys..I just though it was kinda important for all of us…got inspired :)) Thanks again, Steve and GL with overcoming those fears! Fears are always useless & irrational.

        Like

    • kvilia says:

      I just can never understand what Lee cyphers 🙂

      Like

      • nee123 says:

        I’m new here & it’s my limited understanding that Lee is our resident Bot and speaks in code all other bots- CN, I3… to name a few- understand;-) Needless to say Tony understands all languages including bot code:-)

        Like

  8. budfox9450 says:

    A word, to those who feel they have had a difficult day….

    I offer for free, my market comment, and investment
    suggestions. Via my email address. My rule is. You
    must say – Thank You. At least once every 10 trading
    days. That is the price, my readers pay. No thank you,
    and they are removed, from the email list.

    Let’s all give Tony, a warm – Thank You…

    Like

    • budfox9450 says:

      Note: the 1576 high of 2007 – today we tagged 1570.
      So we are now into that level of resistance, exceeding
      1576, or not…

      Like

      • Young Tom says:

        Bud
        Gave you my email address. Haven’t heard from you. How often do you send them out?
        YT

        Like

      • budfox9450 says:

        Tom: Yes, saw your email. But, you did not indicate
        you wanted to be placed on the email list. Suggest,
        you resend your request. Often? Good question.
        Was sending a comment out several times a week.
        My friends, seem to want a Swing Trade, timing signals.
        So, I have reduced the email to 1-2 times per week,
        or as needed. Swing Trade signals, employ the weekly
        chart. Can be a little late, but more accurate….look forward
        to hearing from you….

        Like

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