wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening reversed, DOW -33

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European markets opened higher, but lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1554. The SPX had closed at 1564 yesterday. In the first few minutes the SPX dropped to 1552, and then began to rally. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -0.4% vs +4.5%. Also at the 10:00 the FED released this: The rebound continued until noon when the SPX hit 1561. A small pullback followed to 1558 by 1:00, then the market moved higher again. At 2:00 the FED released this: At 3:30 the market closed the gap hitting SPX 1564, then dipped to close at 1563.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rose $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the OEW 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Last night the FED reported New home sale prices rose: $313.7K vs $295.2K, nearing a record high. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +0.3%) and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Chicago PMI at 9:45.

After three successive gap up openings the market gapped down at the open today. That makes it 7 gap openings in 8 days. Do not recall seeing this type of opening action since 2011. The pullback took the market right down to the 1552 pivot, and then the market reversed higher. Despite all these gap openings the market has remained in the SPX 1539-1565 range, after topping at 1564 before all this activity began. Today’s trading kept the SPX within that contracting triangle we noted yesterday. With QE 3 GDP tomorrow morning it could be a key day. If not we may need to wait until monday.

Short term support remains at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Short term momentum did not make it to oversold before rising. The short term OEW charts are still vacillating positive/negative with the reversal level now up to 1556. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1565

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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152 Responses to wednesday update

  1. trollsattony says:

    Noël Coward – “It’s discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit.”


  2. mokiepon says:

    Fairly quick run up at the close. Will see what’s left for Monday. GL. M


  3. themoose101 says:

    Tony, as many of you have pointed out over the years, is a most generous, gracious, and patient host, allowing any and all to post their views, even if those views are in stark contrast to his. But, even he has his limits when proper decorum is breached. This site, at least from what I have seen, does a remarkable job of policing itself, and I think we do so in large measure out of respect for its host. So, post your thoughts, your ideas, and conjecture at will about the market’s direction, but let’s please do away with personal attacks. The intruders to this site, those who come here with an agenda, will eventually leave and find another place to land.
    For example, do any of you still remember CatchtheMoves? It was about a year ago that he began to ‘troll’ Tony’s site with proclamations of stock market infallibility. Well, over time, he, his system, and his blog have disappeared into the ether, never to be heard from or seen again. He certainly wasn’t the only one; there have been many others and, over time, I’m sure there will be many more. I simply remember him more clearly than the others because he materialized here like the Pied Piper of Hamelin. Thankfully, hopefully, not many followed his wayward tune.
    On a positive note, Happy Easter to Tony and to all on the site!


  4. uncle10 says:

    I have not had this big of a short position in quite some time. Yes, I am under water currently, but there are so many of my indicators telling me we are very close to short-medium term top that I feel it warrants a big position. They had to break up through the top to get the shorts out and longs in, should have know better and waited. I just like the pattern so much I jumped the gun yesterday and today. Happy Holiday everyone.


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