tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another gap up opening, DOW +112

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +5.7% vs -4.9%. At 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported at 6 year highs: +8.1% vs +6.9%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1558. The SPX had closed at 1552 yesterday. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported sharply lower: 59.7 vs 69.6, and New home sales were reported lower: 411K vs 437K. At 10:30 the SPX hit 1562, pulled back to 1556, and then headed back up again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1564 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rallied $1.45, Gold slid $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Tomorrow: Pending home sales at 10:00.

The market gapped up at the open today for the third day in a row. One would think since the first gap up started at SPX 1546, and the SPX hit 1565 during the second one, the market would be higher. Nevertheless, these three higher gap openings may suggest there is monies coming from somewhere outside of the US. In the meantime, the SPX continues to struggle to clear the 1560’s. Which happens to be in between the SPX 1553 2000 high, and the SPX 1576 2007 all time high.

The short term wave count, for Minor wave 5 from the SPX 1485 Minor 4 low, suggests the market has been in Minute wave v for more that a week now. Trading has been between SPX 1539 and 1565 and the price action appears forming an ascending wedge. Commonly known as a diagonal triangle. This market does not appear to be in any hurry to clear the hourly posted rising trendline, as it has remained quite choppy since the previous SPX 1564 high.

Short term support is at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Short term momentum is getting overbought again. The short term OEW charts turned positive at the open with the reversal level now SPX 1554. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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145 Responses to tuesday update

  1. H D says:

    5 wave impulse from 1552 pivot today?

  2. M1 says:

    It looks too easy. If this was the beginning of the correction, then I will short the market if it brakes the lows of today.

  3. Young Tom says:

    This market is like a dog with two tails. He doesn’t know which one to chase.

  4. Lee says:

    My Mom sez I have to stop playing with my computer and eat lunch.
    She’s not the boss of me…uh oh she heard me ..later

  5. uncle10 says:

    The market is on borrowed time. Lots of clues of a near term top, They may spike up before they take it down big., but any spike will be short lived. I am comfortable with my short. gl and good day

  6. Lee says:

    Ok guys they stopped out the late shorts IMO ESM .. Clean slate ..All Skate
    What a crazy thing these futures

  7. Lee says:

    Ok folks never chase… put ur sells where ur buy stops would be and visa versa..never buy beef jerky on the CME floor from a stranger,,Think like a BOT

  8. lunker1 says:

    AAPL GOOG XLF still weak. I think we go down.

  9. uncle10 says:

    I am shorting ES here $SPX 1558

  10. budfox9450 says:

    The keltner band high is 1573. ….couple more point, eh….

    • budfox9450 says:

      SP keeps climbing the wall of worry – Snort

      • sdsteve says:

        Hasn’t really gone anywhere for almost a month….
        Seems like they are desperately trying to “get the cash on the sidelines” …
        They even outright steal it these days and its amazing to me the markets dont seem to care…

    • mmmiiikkkeee says:

      bud, this link and the similar one you posted yesterday do not work for me, please check it;

  11. H D says:

    Missed it all this morn but hey, 1553 HWB

  12. scorp100 says:

    Hi Tony, FB touched your target price.

  13. trollsattony says:

    It is comical! One exclaimed a “BIG-UP” because he could feel it in his bones, followed with a CYA by telling the world that he is a poseur. Many regurgitate other’s work, then fine tuning with after the fact for their pinpoint accuracy, so-called predictions. There are gibberish and flip-flops more than the politicians. It is scary to see some even offer newsletters and email services with their unworthy records. You are here for Tony, and for your own sake, stop interact with these Bozo trainees.

  14. uncle10 says:

    Lee says:

    Hey Guys
    IF * ESM stays under 1560 today I think we’ve started a move back to SPX 1523 pivot
    I agree Lee.
    I bought some AMZN April 5 puts strike 260 for $2.2. AMZN what a beast of a stock!

  15. wcagle says:

    Financials still weak….not a good sign.

  16. gtoptions says:

    Testing SPY Weekly PP @ 155.05

  17. Lee says:

    ESM Pivots
    PP 1554.25 R1 @ 1562 R2 @ 1566.25
    S1 @ 1550 S2 @ 1542.25

  18. budfox9450 says:

    Very interesting – SP futures just tagged the 1546 low, believe the 1548.47 on cash,
    should contain a low – before a stronger reversal up.

    • Lee says:

      Thx Bud
      U mentioned ESM 1546 this morn to CN
      BTW I have some friends staying at our place in FL saying they needed winter coats at night this past week. Spring breakers got hosed eh ?

  19. Lee says:

    SPX bouncing off the year 2000’s resistance at 1552 so far..Ud think it was a pivot or something???

  20. wcagle says:

    Tony….lol. Actually I think I meant to ask…. running flat v in a 5.

  21. alexhartley1 says:

    The European markets seem ready to fall much further but they’re being held up to a certain degree by the US markets.

    The US markets look like they need 1 more test of highs and perhaps a little bit more into early April (this is the choppy 4th wave flat or ending diagonal 5th wave triangle Tony is talking about).

    There is a GANN turn on the 1-2nd April so from sometime today probably up into the 1st with the aid of POMO and the high there (1576 pivot I would imagine/maybe) should bring about the end of the 5th wave with roughly a month long correction stretching through most of April.

    Upside is strictly limited from here…..

    P.S. Then of course we could just tank tonight like we are in Europe but that’s not my current line of thinking with EOM strength coming.

  22. M1 says:

    Good morning,
    A pullback of abt 53 – 70 Dow points would be a normal correction, IMO
    14,490 looks like it should be support..

  23. kvilia says:

    Cypriot central bank chief Panicos Demetriades says upwards of 40 percent of uninsured deposits at the Bank of Cyprus could be lost, and 80 percent of uninsured deposits at Laiki could be wiped out.

  24. mokiepon says:

    What an excellent day for a down trend. Very convenient too, don’t you think? Europe conveniently down; not necessary, but it is what it is. Wonder if tomorrow will be down, or just flat? Hmmm. Happy Trading! M

    • Lee says:

      Thanks M !
      Thank goodness I only use 1/2 of my brain scalping futures cause if I used my whole brain I’d have to get a real job 😉

      • mokiepon says:

        Go Lee! Very impressive for brain damage. LOL!
        All the best, Lee.

        Bye Ya’ll! M

      • wcagle says:

        “If I only had a brain”….seems like you are doing very well with just 1/2 of your brain. Steps ahead of most even with one hand tied behind your back. Love the picture….George is one handsome dude and was a big hit in one of my favorites “O Brother Where Art Thou”….

      • Lee says:

        Thanks wcagle
        But I don’t know who George is ?
        I took this picture at photo booth @ Woolworths in Chicago 😉


    • CygnetNoir says:

      A downtrend, or a chance to buy futures on sale? I bought some at 49.5 and I’ll buy some more if 1551.25 trades (currently 1550.75). I hope I’m getting a bargain, M. But if they spoil before their time, I’ll throw them out before they get too ripe. I like to play for the 10 handle moves, but when it comes to day trading, like Lee, I’m a scalper, and quite happy to take what I can get without letting THEM get too much from me when I’m wrong.

      I am frequently wrong, by the way. Frequently.

    • wcagle says:

      How about gathering some coin today???

      • CygnetNoir says:

        I use Interactive Brokers … Lee uses advanced futures – as always, do your due diligence and don’t take anything I say as a recommendation.

      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, HD is right. TOS (Think or Swim) is the best charting software I’ve ever used. If you can get, then, get it. You don’t necessarily need to fund acct right away. Tell them you want to try it out first. M

    • mokiepon says:

      Absolutely no fear showing up yet in vix etn’s. Think it will take the protracted downtrend wave Tony says is ahead. GL All. M

    • mokiepon says:

      Their they are (vix etn’s). Good day trade perhaps? M

  25. Young Tom says:

    At 2:54 PM Tuesday, Lee posted; Cheap Cheap
    ES was trading about 1558.
    Very nice call. Instead of Ham you get Lamb for Easter.

  26. 5wavemodel says:

    If the market is going to move down, today should be the day. A move above 1565.50 means the market wants to move higher.


  27. CygnetNoir says:

    The BIG UP starts tomorrow. Current ES 1558.25 … tomorrow’s ES high will be 1576 +/- … I feel it in me bones, I do. BIG UP for the rails tomorrow as well … I’ll be watching UNP as it it makes yet another all-time high … and Nike looks like it might put on its Reboks and go for a run …

    CAUTION: I am not a trader, though I do play one on the internet Do as you do and ignore what I say.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Your correct – in that – there is a pattern that would place a low,
      at or near th1546 SP futures low, Then, one might see a gigantic
      leap upward – with very little pause to reach and exceed 1576.
      It is possible….

  28. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! When does Spring arrive?

  29. nickswoosh says:

    Tony, aren’t ending diagonals usually 3-3-3-3-3? You could make the case that the first 4 waves are patterns of 3, but there is clearly a 5-wave pattern for the current wave that further revealed itself today (1555, 1548, 1562, 1557, 1564 so far). Isn’t that a violation of the ending diagonal?
    Is it possible that we’re in a wave 5 of 1 of 3 of 3 of 5 (hah), possibly beginning wave 2 of 3 of 3 of 5 tomorrow? From the 1538 low, I see wave 1 to 1562, wave 2 to 1543 (as you’ve mentioned before), but then a subdividing wave 3 that has wave 1 at the 1565 high, wave 2 at 1546, and within wave 3 a subdividing wave 1 with the 5 waves mentioned above (1555, 1548, 1562, 1557, 1564). So wave 2 should start sometime tomorrow and take us back to the previous wave 4 (1556-57) before taking us higher.
    A lot of small subdivisions, perhaps too many for this to be a possibility.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Nick,
      Our count suggests from SPX 1539:
      1562-1544-1564-1546-1564 (so far).
      See no five wave structures since 1564 was first hit March 15th.

      • nickswoosh says:

        Sorry, I meant at smaller degrees that can be seen in smaller time frames. I see the possibility of the ending diagonal, but a recent 5-wave structure from the 1546 low is bothering me. Here’s a 15min chart (apologies that my labeling doesn’t exactly match yours, but you get the idea):

      • nickswoosh says:

        Appreciate the feedback. Just beginning to try Elliott Wave, so it is always welcome.

  30. pooch77 says:

    Look at daily spy charts,negative divergence everywhere

  31. tommyboys says:


    Why do the three gap ups suggest monies from outside the US coming in? There is always money coming from inside and outside the US into the markets is there not? It is a global marketplace anymore…

  32. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony – good stuff.

  33. mjtplayer says:

    With the market closed for “Good Friday”, Thursday is the last trading day of the quarter; market should have an upward bias into Thursday on window dressing and bookmarking. Also, full moon tomorrow. Perhaps a top tomorrow or Thursday?

  34. mokiepon says:

    Thank you Tony! M

  35. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    These waves are certainly difficult to count. I am not confident in any direction.
    Today, the dow couldn’t take the highs of yesterday. That’s negative, IMO. However, I will be prepare in case the market give us a positive surprise tomorrow.

  36. We continue to advocate for our prediction that $SPX will soon make a new all time high according to last weekend’s price model. We continue to observe higher lows since the recent dip to 1,538.

    A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate this scenario


  37. thanks for the prompt update Tony. The ascending wedge/diagonal triangle you mentioned, is that the same pattern as an ending diagonal? ‘Cause then we’ll have another week of side-ways up slow grind with marginal new highs in subsequent days.

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