monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening leads to pullback, DOW -64

Overnight Cyprus reached an agreement, at the cost of their savers, and Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1564, dipped to 1561, then made a new uptrend high at 1565 by 10:00. After that the market started to pullback. The pullback closed the opening gap and trended lower until 1:00, when the SPX hit 1546. Also at 1:00: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130325a.htm  FED chairman Bernanke’s speech was released. The market then rebounded to SPX 1556 by 2:00. Another pullback followed to SPX 1548 by 3:30, then the market bounced to close at 1552.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rallied 85 cents, Gold lost $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence and New homes sales at 10:00.

The market gapped up at the open, made a new uptrend high, and then immediately sold off. The SPX 1560’s has certainly been a tough area, for this uptrend, to break through. It is another good day traders market, as was mid-February. But quite tricky to count from a short term perspective. We continue to feel SPX 1539 is a critical level for the uptrend, just like 1537 was a week ago and 1500 two weeks before that. Until the market takes out this low it is still an uptrend.

Short term support remains at the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day just below neutral. The short term OEW charts continue to vacillate positive/negative, ending the day negative with the reversal level at SPX 1553. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1565

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS:  http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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149 Responses to monday update

  1. lunker1 says:

    AAPL, GOOG, R2K weak. still thinking we roll over here but will happily continue to sell higher if we don’t. perhaps this sideways consolidation has been the A-B of IV with a C to follow.

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  2. budfox9450 says:

    Now, projecting the SP500 to raise to 1568-1574…this is a new
    projected high, predicated on the BoYu signal…..

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    • mokiepon says:

      Wonder if we see a blow-off top earlier than thought. Sure looks like indices are trying to set up for it. M

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    • budfox9450 says:

      My procedure is to plot the SP500, and then the VAY index.
      The VAY is not, confirming the new Bulish signal, in the SP500.
      That bothers me, some what. The VAY has been reaching new
      price highs, long before the SP500 has, in fact the VAY is the stronger
      index – for the VAY to NOT confirm the strength this afternoon at 3pm.
      Is a negative, so a word of caution is required……..

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      • mokiepon says:

        bud, I know you might not believe this, but in this case, your vay non-confirmation might be a good sign. If stocks pull back tomorrow &/or Thursday, wonder what your vay will register then? M

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      • budfox9450 says:

        M…sort of a – playing catch up. Is what your saying?
        Yes, that to is a possibility. But the strength, of this weakness
        does not suggest a rally, other than move into the 1576 OEW
        pivot range, at this time. To think higher, would be a bigger gamble….

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      • mokiepon says:

        I’m not necessarily thinking anything like what you’ve stated. Want to see what the close is. Open tomorrow will be VERY important! M

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  3. uncle10 says:

    I don’t know how many forex traders are here, but I think there are a few. I am shorting AUD/USD here at 1.0485 with a stop above 1.06 and starting to buy some FXA 1.05 puts.

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    • wcagle says:

      I LOVE IT! Only in America are opportunities like this available to us, the lesser sex…lol. Use both lobes of that brain baby………

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      • mokiepon says:

        LOL! Don’t you love the bit about her buying the jacket at SA for $8 and selling it for $1K?! Only in America…for now, anyway. Hope these kids keep the spirit alive! M

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  4. H D says:

    USA! news of home prices +23% in PHX. CN- que the AC/DC

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  5. mokiepon says:

    Sell-off in tna right now. Little upside on R2K compared to other indices. M

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    • wcagle says:

      Financials weak. BAC, JPM, C, MS, WFC sitting on 20 & 50 day…portending a gap down below moving averages in the morning?

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    • mokiepon says:

      wcagle, anything is possible. r2k and financials sort of led the rise, perhaps they’re leading the decline. Notice how it’s not a big decline, yet. It’s a quiet decline, w/dji, spx & nas all well up. All we can do is watch and see what happens.

      Since I’m perpetually long, should we get a new high next week, I’ll cover and probably use my trading cash to rig for downside.

      M

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    • mokiepon says:

      Hearing Cyprus banks to open on Thurs. Oh boy! Good times… M

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      • Young Tom says:

        When the Cyprus banks open, would it not be human nature, to have soom type of run spawned?
        Could it lead to contagion elsewhere?

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      • mokiepon says:

        I have no idea, re: bank runs. Considering the amount of cash a person can withdraw will probably be very limited… Who knows. US markets closed Friday, Europe markets closed Monday, gives 4 days to digest everything. US still one of the better houses. M

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    • mokiepon says:

      TNA absolutely cannot pick itself up off the floor this afternoon. XLF near it’s high for today. Interesting. M

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    • mokiepon says:

      TNA finally back to level of yesterday’s close. Still well off the high for today. M

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  6. uncle10 says:

    good short here at $SPX 1560. only going to risk 3 points.

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    • mokiepon says:

      That’ll likely work for tomorrow and Thurs. I wouldn’t dare short into Mon & Tues of next week though. M

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      • uncle10 says:

        Hey M, usually when you risk very little you get stopped, so I will not be surprised if that happens. I don’t know about Mon and Tues yet, I will have to see how things look when we get a little closer. It is very likely I have a decent short on Thurs. holding during the long weekend.

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      • wcagle says:

        You afraid to short into Mon/Tues might just be indicative of a top….I’m sure the bots have gotten everyone afraid to short at this point. From a time & price perspective, I’m thinking we are at the top right here and fireworks to the downside could start next week. JMHO…..

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      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, we’ll see. Don’t forget that mut funds must be fully invested and it’s end of quarter. M

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      • wcagle says:

        Couldn’t they hedge their long positions by selling puts against them, effectively shorting the market?

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      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, I’ll take it a step further and say next week it’s possible we see something akin to a blow-off top of sorts. It won’t last long. Similar to a flush to the downside (from seconds to 1 minute). If I’m completely wrong, I owe you a beer, or whatever drink you like. M

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      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, I don’t know the answer to your hedging question re: mut funds, but the money is coming in. All are on Holiday this week and weekend. Mon and Tues will be the days to note. Maybe Wed too, but 3rd day might be too much. Will see, M

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      • Young Tom says:

        Thought you were shopping?

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      • wcagle says:

        lol…not much of a drinker, but might turn into one if we have that blow off top you are alluding to….My female intuition is saying they are setting a bull trap for longs….

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      • mokiepon says:

        YT, the store is less than a mile away. If you want me to stop blogging, just say so. It won’t stop me, but hey…Say what you want.

        wcagle, a topping process such as I described is a sort of trap for the longs. Think about it.

        M

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      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, another add to this is that many mgrs. have their orders already set to buy at a certain level, if you’re a believer in bots or dark pools, then, that might suit you. Generally, stocks sell-off before the institutional funds come in; not always, but much of the time. M

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  7. M1 says:

    Scenario 1: (DOWN)
    From Thursday’s low to yesterday’s high: I see 5 waves. (wave c of B, IMO)
    Wave C should be unfolding. So this may be only wave 2 of wave C. If this is the correct count, then wave 3 of C should start very soon.
    Scenario 2: (UP)
    This is the start of a new structure to the upside. We should brake 1566 and go to 1617.
    Two good reasons to be in cash for the moment.

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  8. H D says:

    Been following the Tuesday stats? Tuesdays been green all year. ~10 handles since open.

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  9. Lee says:

    Morn all
    How about black gold ? CL
    ESM
    Cheap short.. .

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