friday update

SHORT TERM: another gap opening, DOW +91

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, at 8:30 FED governor Raskin’s speech was released: The market gapped up at the open today to SPX 1551. This was the fourth gap opening this week. After a small rise to SPX 1553 the market pulled back to 1550 by 10:00. Another push higher took the SPX to 1557 by 11:30, then another small pullback to 1553 followed., at 12:00 this was released. The market then made a slightly higher high at SPX 1558 by 1:30. Then after a pullback to SPX 1553 by 3:30, the market rose to end the week at 1557.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.45, Gold slipped $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support bumps back up to the 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance again at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Last night the FED reported the Monetary base hit a new high: $2.977 tln vs $2.916 tln. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 56.4% vs 56.3%.

The market continued its indecisive ways today, as it gapped up at the open then crept higher for the rest of the day. Thus far this uptrend has displayed many signs of wanting to turn down. But each time this occurs the market rebounds back up again. Consolidation or topping? Time will tell.

Short term support is back up to the OEW 1552 and 1523 pivots, with resistance at the 1576 and 1614 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts, which have vacillated all week, turned positive again with the reversal level at SPX 1552. Best to your week!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still choppy

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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17 Responses to friday update

  1. kvilia says:

    “Spanish Minister of Finance Public Administration announced this week a tax or bank levy (probably 0.2%) to be imposed on bank deposits, without details on which deposits will be affected or timing.” I wonder how they let us have the money in the first place. Time to fix this little nuisance.


  2. 5wavemodel says:

    I am beginning to think that the market completed a 5 Wave sequence from 1074.77 last Friday at 1562.63, followed by the completion of an inverted corrective wave from 1370.58 on Tuesday at 1538.57. If so, the next direction should be up, and pretty powerful.



  3. mokiepon says:

    Tony, thanks for the great Update.

    Wish I’d bought upro at the mini-flush yesterday, rather than tna. Thankfully, it paid for itself. M


  4. pooch77 says:

    Does Cyprus push up to new highs’s on Monday or one more retrace then up,up and away??? I am betting on Cyprus solution. I was bearish butin the face of Cyrus getting the boot the market was strong today so must adjust


  5. lunker1 says:

    March 5 flipped the pairs trade to short GOOG and long AAPL.


  6. mike7x says:

    Yo…yo Tony. Thanks. That’s as in yo-yo market. When does the string break and the yo-yo fall?


  7. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.


  8. Today, we received confirmation for this leg up that started after our accurate prediction a week ago (March 15) of the recent short-term low 1,537 on $SPX that occurred on March 19 (1,538.57-actual).

    Our model, as presented on Saturday March 16, calls for a short term target of 1,610-1,620 on $SPX.

    A daily close below 1,537 would invalidate this scenario and suggest that the market rolled-over to the down-side


    • M1 says:

      This time I see quite the same. It looks like this market wants to go over 1600.(Dow 15,000). Fifth wave of fifth of minor 3, IMO.
      However, I don’t see any confirmation yet. I still think 1566 has to be taken before we can get more excited.


  9. thanks for the update tony! too choppy for my taste and waiting for the indices to show their hand, until then; all cash. it’s been a great ride for the past few months, no need to gamble that away with a market like we have now.


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