tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening DOW all time new high, DOW +126

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1533 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1525 yesterday. At 10:00 ISM services were reported higher: 56.0 vs 55.2. The rally continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit 1542, a new uptrend high. Then the market consolidated its gains for the next two hours, in a two point range, before hitting 1543 at 1:30. After that a five point pullback to SPX 1538 just before a 1540 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15, Factory orders at 10:00, then the FED’s Beige book at 2:00.

The market gapped up and over the SPX 1531 uptrend high today, then continued higher to 1543. It is quite amazing the US market continues to move higher with 70% of world’s indices in confirmed downtrends. Nevertheless price rules. We updated the charts this morning to reflect an ongoing Minor wave 5. After Minor wave 4 ended at SPX 1485, the market rallied to 1525, pulled back to 1501, (just above the 1500 trouble level), and has now rallied to 1543. We labeled this activity as Minute waves i and ii completed, with Minute iii underway. With the DOW at all time new highs, the market could keep this upside momentum going, as this uptrend has now extended to four months.

Short term support is at the 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today, and ended overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1520. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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110 Responses to tuesday update

  1. mokiepon says:

    Good Grief! On what Minute or Pico wave are we? M

  2. llerias7 says:

    Tony, on the Nikkey you think that 13000 should be top of the recent bull run? Can the measures that was/will be taken by the BOJ cause a buying pressure that might help the indice to overcame the line?


  3. mokiepon says:

    Sold a few shares of goog today. i don’t have many shares to begin with, but it’s abov e the $810 are Tony mentioned last night. Will sell a few shares when it rises again. Going to sell aapl too. M

    • timing101 says:

      Hey M, $HUI hit 337 today, up nearly 5% from that level now at 353.

      • mokiepon says:

        Timing, I know I’m missing out on a lot of good stuff here. Got kids, have to spend money on other things right now. Just wait until later this year when the big V up comes to finish off this Bull. I’m loading up and riding it. M

  4. mokiepon says:

    Where’s CN today? M

    • H D says:

      Hi M, Was only referring to selling in wheat. ESH I posted the 1537.50 level. Sorry for the confusion.

    • CygnetNoir says:

      Just watching, M. Sometimes, I just have nothing to say. Right now the Dow is thinking about a final 40 minute rally while the spoos is ready to snooz. I think the Dow wins and we re-test the highs. Again. Maybe even new highs. Again.

      • CygnetNoir says:

        ES would be a buy for me on a stop at 42.25 for a final push; though with the highs just a couple points above, it hardly seems worht the risk. Then again, who’s to say we don’t head right to 1552 before the close?

      • mokiepon says:

        Just as long as you’re around and doing okay, CN. M

  5. cmparis says:

    Anyone here following BBRY? Would appreciate any opinions.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Charlie – Hello….I shall offer, what I see in BBRY.
      1st the Weekly. BBBy has been on a weekly sell
      2/15/13. The prior signal, was a buy 9/28/12.
      That rally is over. $18.50-19.50 – this is strong
      Price resistance. Weekly price pattern is down.
      2nd – The daily BoYu signal is also on a sell.
      the daily, is unfolding from the 1/25 high,
      in what appears to be an A-B-C decline. The low
      of 2/1 could be an A wave low, then you see a large
      bounce up into a B wave high near $17.14. The
      in the curent down pattern is looking like a C wave
      down. If that is correct, then the odd’s favor a Low
      $11.44-10.89 – this is where, if BBRY is going to
      move higher it should do so, at or just above this
      11.44-10.89 level.
      Otherwise, the trend then gets ugly…risk then is $5-4.
      Bottom Line – BBRY. is not a Buy, or hold at this time.

      • cmparis says:

        Thanks Bud – Appreciate it. ABC move is what I have been watching for but with today’s move I’m not so sure we will get sub $12.15.

      • budfox9450 says:

        Yes, I agree – my analysis is based on the data ending 3/5.
        And, since my analysis was so negative. When I look at
        a short term view – a 10 min chart. I get a more positive view.
        Which is what your seeing.
        Now – if BBRY has moved to a trading Buy.I will know later
        this evening. $13.77 is resistance, at the last pivot high.
        What is now important – I would want to see – what the BoYu
        signals later this evening. If above 13.77. Odd’s favor a Bullish
        pattern. But – I will know this tonight.

      • budfox9450 says:

        Closing thought – “not sure we will see sub 12.15″…I must tell
        you a short story – Feelings, a twitch in the back of you neck,
        will not make you money. I was a Bear, for the longest period
        of time – trust me – it never helped me. And, who would expect
        a New DJIA high, with an unemployment rate at just below 8%.
        Or a national debt of 16+ trillion, or a GDP of less than 2%…
        Fundamentals, do not matter, is what I have come to learn.
        And, from, a historical matter. This market makes no sense.
        Now, even a majority of country indices are in down trends.
        Why, should that matter? – The Fed rules….so I am Bullish.

      • tommyboys says:

        Fundamentals DO matter imho but you can’t confuse the economy with the market – two separate entities. Economic fundies may not look so hot but corporate fundies are strong with decent EPS, low PEs, decent insider buying and this isn’t even counting the cash hoard most have accumulated. Maybe the most important factor is sentiment – it remains in the tank ever since 2009 for all the reasons – and more – you’ve layed out.

    • budfox9450 says:

      3/6 after close – BBRY – was a Buy signal today using my
      BoYu indicator, as were presious metals GLD/SLV, and ABX….

  6. wcagle says:

    M….what if the people who didn’t get out at the top, wake up one morning with the markets closed and remained closed for 5 years though??? Seems like a big gamble on timing….

    • mokiepon says:

      It is a very big gamble. Most people will be caught. Again, it all depends upon what you believe is coming AND if you have the fortitude to act upon your beliefs ahead of time, while things still seem okay. I liken this disinflationary Secular Bear to a radiation burn or bad sunburn (My Dad’s analogy); once you’re burned, it’s done. You might not see the full results right away, but after that hot bath, you’ll look like a lobster. All the lotion in the world won’t keep your skin from peeling because it’s already dead; it just hasn’t dried up and flaked yet. wcagle, I cut my trading teeth on the last Secular Bear Mkt of the 1970’s; and at present, this is a Secular Bear that hasn’t bottomed yet. I don’t care what Buffett or Ed Yardeni says; I remember Yardeni when his hair wasn’t gray. I’m curious to know your thoughts? Are you trying to time this, or what? What’s the main concern you have? M

      • wcagle says:

        M….I guess it’s female intuition. This has been a fed fueled liquidity rally and they are desperately trying to change sentiment which new highs can do. I’m not buying it and I think that one day, we will all wake up to a whole new world and a new currency???? What happens then to our investments?

      • mokiepon says:

        My first comment is that The Fed can put the money into the system, but they can’t make us spend it. Global growth slowing and in US, over 1.2M Jobless Claims per month, and the best we can manage is 250K private sector jobs per month? You do the math. I don’t think we’ll have a new curency, but if deflation does hit us hard, we could wake up on a Monday morning and find that we will not be allowed to remove cash from our bank accts., or be limited in what we can remove. As far as your ‘investments’, it depends upon what those investments are? If they’re stocks, kiss it goodbye for a few years, at least. You’ll likely not regain the total of what you’ve lost. M

      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, you don’t have to miss out on the best that stocks can return for you at present. You need to watch the wave counts. Keep in mind you don’t have to invest all your money in stocks, but you might want to look at picking up some good ones when we next undergo a correction. There’s upside ahead after that. M

    • Just buy proctor and gamble whenever there is a panic with money you can afford to lock up in case the market shuts down for 5 years….its like a fire and forget missile… total return will outperform not only S&P but Berkhire I daresay over the next 30 years….after all India is just waking up to the concept of diapers…even if the NYSE closes we will need diapers..and besides there will always be private markets for P&G in case NYSE shuts down…and indeed next time an event happens that shuts down the market for 5 years…90% of the world population will be dead meat anyway….

  7. mokiepon says:

    Would like to see this move as minute iv that Tony talked about yesterday. Maybe close the gap at 1525-28? M

    • mokiepon says:

      Tony, do I have the minute iv levels correct (1525-28ish)? I think this is what you meant on your Monday Update comments. M

    • wcagle says:

      M….what is your opinion on Buffett’s statement to Becky Quick on Monday about buying stocks in companies that you would feel comfortable owning IF the markets were closed down for 5 years. What in the world would the people with 401k’s do for money if they needed it if that scenario ever occurred???…Was that a fruedian slip on his part and a scary thought if it came to pass….

      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, I think Buffett was born in a time where buy and hold worked, for decades. I believe there’s a Secular Bear Mkt bottom ahead of us and I don’t want to go through it. Why not sell close to the top and reinvest when stocks are much lower? It all depends upon what you believe is ahead of us. When I was a kid and bought my first stocks, buy and hold worked; 1982-83 saw a huge turnaround. We don’t have the luxury of that kind of economy anymore. 5%-6% growth? No way. M

      • mokiepon says:

        wcagel, let me add to this. My Dad went through The Great Depression as a young man in his 20’s looking for work. He was 44 yrs. old when I was born and I was his 1st child (maybe). Anyway, he drilled the “signs” of deflation and disinflation into my pea-brain constantly, so “You’ll know it when you see it, because everyone else who’s ever seen it will be dead by that time”. Intuitively, I suppose The Old Man knew there was a cycle to markets and life, in general. The biggest problem we have right now, besides an Administration in DC who doesn’t understand business, is the lack of good paying jobs and the lack of well educated youth to fill those jobs. M

      • mokiepon says:

        Excuse me for the misspell, wcagle. M

      • rc1269 says:

        Oddly, Buffet owns WFC. As a bank, WFC would cease to exist without access to the capital markets. So I guess he breaks his own rules too.

      • mokiepon says:

        rc, yes, Buffett does what he wants and broadcasts what he wants others to do. Namely make him richer. M

  8. manunidhi21 says:

    Hi tony…….The European markets were mixed for a net loss of 0.4%. Five of the eight indices are in confirmed downtrends and another is weakening…..

    which five are in confirmed downtrends and which one is weaking..


    • tony caldaro says:

      Glad you brought that up.
      As of the weekend we had:
      Spain, France, Germany, Italy and the Stox all in downtrends. Greece confirmed a downtrend too.
      Then, all of a sudden, Spain, Germany and France confirmed uptrends yesterday.
      The Heat is off!

  9. H D says:

    Wheat locked FIB control. Could it hit em all?

  10. mokiepon says:

    I think spx is going to be range bound now, until even as late as next week. Might break with Jobs on Friday, but can’t be sure. M

  11. mokiepon says:

    How was the ADP Report? Anyone? M

  12. H D says:

    GM all PB fibs @ 40.25 & 37.50. ESH

  13. Pico Lee says:

    Morn all
    Rollover is upon us

  14. Monday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/03/04

    1. elliott PSTT: is now on a BUY signal as it closed aboe 1520spx. the last sell short signal was on thursday’s, 2013/02/21, close below 1511. s. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    2. qqq indicator: +8 (on a scale of -10 to +10) up 14 points(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    3. smart money indicator: +2 , up 4 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
    4. March monthly 2faced longs: + 3.34% profit today. system holds for an entire month. system holds for an entire month.
    5. March monthly 2faced shorts: 1.90% profit today.
    6. weekly 2faced longs, 2.43% profit today. system holds longs for a full week.
    7. weekly 2faced shorts:, 1.90% profit today.

    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    benchmark:$SPY + 0.53% today.

    crash indicator at +6 (updated 4-01) , up 2, versus last friday’s +4.next update will be on 2013/03/08. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. no signs of an upcoming crash.
    all other long term indicators remain on a buy.
    medium term “PSTT” remains on a buy.

    changed. 50% invested, 10% short, 40% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. increasing longs on this pullback.

    SHORT break out watch:
    LONG break out watch: $CACH, $VCLK, $PCYC

    a BUY signal was triggered today at the close by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator, although a further pullback is still a 40% probability. conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    best gains today in the 2faced folios came from $CLVS +12%, $SBGI +7.2% and $MEIP +14.2%. best short in the monthly 2faced folio was $AT down 16.99%

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  15. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    Nice rally. My stops were hit. I reloaded my long positions at the close. It looks like this market will go much, much higher.

    • kvilia says:

      Much higher? What about Tony’s count?

      • M1 says:

        Kvilia. Tony’s count looks ok. Minor 5 should be unfolding. We should hit 1575 at least, but I expect even much higher prices. Maybe it could hit 1600+ before spring. This means in a couple of weeks. Then a small correction.
        It is time to be long. The Fed is pumping trillions into the economy. The dow should hit 20000 unless we see some unexpected big negative event or a large scale war.

      • kvilia says:

        Tony’s count started scaring the hell out of me. If he expects 1575 and then 4 taking SPX down to 1500, then I’m in concert with this view 95%. It does look like 1700 or even higher is the target for the end of bull, however let’s not jump ahead of the market. I’m fully prepared to play along with this count both long and short.

  16. One hell of a day for the Yenguy!

  17. budfox9450 says:

    Thank You. Tony….

  18. cicelyalaska says:

    Euphoria and happiness all around. How long will it last?

    • torehund says:

      Cicle this is just early exit from depression, many shares out there that have not been running yet. And valuations is based on a no growth quarter. Keep positive until RSI is at 130 plus on major index, lart years macd shows a double abc correction and still we have gone up. We have seen nothing yet !

      • torehund says:

        And hello from me to all in here, gulping saltwater and relaxing in Barra de la cruz. Waves are good but a little more difficult than Chicama, Peru. Food is excellent. Waiting for the monster squeeze to 2100 on SP 500 , lol…So many shares that in thelong haul like 10 years should be about to finish a GRANDE ABC…Whats next for them, look at ARWR….Brand new pattern to emerge soon I hope.

  19. As we predicted yesterday, there was a gap up at the opening today, with $SPX breaking out of the prior resistance of 1.530 observed on February 19 (now becomes support).

    Furthermore, as we stated yesterday, on the hourly, $SPX reached the predicted 1,538 level (in fact reached the bit higher 1,543 level) and already began a small pullback towards the new support level of 1,527 – 1,530.

    It is expected that subsequently $SPX will likely reach new highs at 1,565.

    A close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX or 14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.

    Next target: Test support


  20. mokiepon says:

    Tony, thanks so much for your hard work and generosity in sharing it with us. Melinda

  21. Thanks for the update Tony. Liquidity trumps everything. With the USA market getting a $85B QE3 and QE 4 injections each month, price cannot but obey and increase. Until the junkie OD’s… Market doesn’t care about the color or origin of the money, as long as it is money that keeps on pouring in, and that’s what the FED has, is, and will be doing until it won’t work anymore. Till then: the trend is up…

  22. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.

  23. vorfahrt says:

    This is how it is after the commodity bull ended… Team USA is ahead of them all again. Domestic energy production will make us self-sufficient shortly and the transports show it, storming ahead. For the foreseeable future, the US is the place to be, the envy of the world again.

  24. CygnetNoir says:

    “It is quite amazing the US market continues to move higher with 70% of world’s indices in confirmed downtrends. Nevertheless price rules.”


    Thank you, Tony, again, for your hard work here (and for not putting this blog up behind a paypal guarded pay wall). You are a gentleman, a scholar, and an all-around awesome dude! God Bless

  25. Pico Lee says:

    Thanks Tony !

  26. mike7x says:

    Thanks for the Update Tony! Great calls and your SPX 1532 (from yesterday’s comment to me) was taken out easily. Google (GOOG) has made all time highs today and many in the press are calling GOOG the “new” AAPL (whatever that means…haha). Several analysts have raised their price target to $1000. Do you see any bellwether-type significance in GOOG’s rise and do you have any new targets for the stock. Thanks! 🙂

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