friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening rally, DOW +120

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1509. The SPX closed at 1502 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market hit SPX 1511, then started to pullback. At 10:30 FED governor Powell’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20130221a.htm. Around 11:00 the SPX hit 1505, just below yesterday’s highs, then started to rally again. At 12:00 the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20130222a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1516 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude gained 55 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Last night the FED reported a new high in the monetary base: $2.879 tln vs $2.829 tln. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 57.6% vs 58.3%.

The market gapped up at the open today for the first time since February 5th, and in the opening minutes the SPX hit 1511. Then after a pullback to SPX 1505 the market rallied to 1516. Thus far from tuesday’s uptrend high we have had a three wave decline: 1500-1506-1497. Now a series of rallies off that low: 1507-1501-1511-1505-1516. It looks like Minor wave 4 ended yesterday.

Short term support is at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum rose from extremely oversold yesterday to slightly overbought today. The short term OEW charts ended the day slightly positive with the reverse level now at SPX 1515. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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23 Responses to friday update

  1. Tony, why do you still have a green 3 on facebook? What are you looking for to make it a black 3? Btw, amazing calls on this market. Its like you have a crystal ball! HFM

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  2. Compared to a 20 day minor 2

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  3. Tony ….. A two day minor 4 …. would seem to be some kind of record?

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  4. torehund says:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=
    Example of an ABC down from 40 usd where the C=A if one bends down the upturn part from 3,8 until today. This is a price skewed chart, but a new pattern may emerge, a “node” in the wave pattern approaching.

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  5. alexhartley1 says:

    If the 1523 pivot holds Monday I still think we’re back down to the 27-28th. And I think a little lower on gold as well next week but we’ll see. The currency pairs didn’t really back the 4 being over in my opinion. Enjoy the weekend Tony and everyone else. My day just started…..

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  6. CB says:

    Tony, thanks. Is it possible that we’ve had 5 waves down from 1530 to 1497 intraday, so wewould expect to get a second impulse to completean abc?

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  7. rc1269 says:

    Thanks Tony!

    btw, Moody’s just downgraded the UK from Aaa to Aa1. the fun continues

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  8. piotrekfx says:

    Hi Tony. Dont you think that today we had B of 4 now, and will have C within next few days at 1485 pivot? And after that will start 5th wave. What do you think? Thx

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  9. pbnj123 says:

    I just want my ii to get in ;-(

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  10. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    Minor 4 is done. But I doubt Q3 will end soon. Bernankee will stay so Qs.
    same target: DOW 20,000
    GL

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