SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -47
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.5%. European markets opened lower and lost 1.9%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 362K vs 341K, and the CPI was reported flat: 0.0% vs 0.0%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1507 and continued to decline. The SPX had closed at 1512 yesterday. At 10:00 the SPX hit 1500, then started to rally. Also at 10:00 Existing home sales were reported lower: 4.92 mln vs 4.94 mln, the Philly FED was reported lower: -12.5 vs -5.8, but Leading indicators were reported positive: +0.2% vs +0.5%. The rally lasted for a half hour, and after the SPX hit 1506 it turned lower again. Around 2:30 the SPX had worked its way down to 1497, was extremely oversold, and then rallied. At 3:30 the SPX hit the opening level at 1507, then pulled back to end the day at 1502.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost $2.30, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: a panel discussion with FED governor Powell at 10:15, then a speech after the close from FED governor Tarullo.
The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since last thursday. After hitting SPX 1500 the market then bounced to 1506. Another push down found support at SPX 1497. Then the market rallied 10 points to SPX 1507 before easing into the close. The 30+ point pullback, (1531-1497), we had been expecting for Minor wave 4 has just occurred. Unfortunately our short term timing was off.
Today’s low found support at the recent cluster of lows from the end of Jan. to early Feb: SPX 1495, 1497, 1498. Today the market also hit a short term oversold level quite similar to the previous Minor wave 4’s in 2012. The decline, thus far from SPX 1531: 1500-1506-1497-1507-1501. While we can not rule out a retest, or slightly lower low, once the SPX rallies strongly through 1506 Minor wave 5, to new uptrend highs, is likely underway.
Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today then ended the day oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now around SPX 1516. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
GM all. DOW makes HH. Amazing consistent calls Tony.
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HD,
BOTs R Us
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I can sense the heat that is ready to pounce on me.. 🙂
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It may just be that once in a lifetime opportunity, just hope that the Euro goes skywards this spring, Germany is stong enough to do just that. And oil will go sufficiently up to make other energy options once again feasible.
In China pollution isnt an academic problem but stealing lives every day. Next for them is to apply a sustainable environment including nuclear and Greens like solar.
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Hi Torehund, I was referring to AXP and JPM. : ) I am sure there are folks think I am a hooligan and want to see me fail. 😦
The TA patterns I found in AXP and JPM have a high probability W/L %. It is not 100% but good enough with the stops. They have not hit the stops yet, so, still good for now.
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Ronin, at some stage hooliganism isnt classical hooliganism, just uninhibited thoughts and spirit. And it is important for the blog that there is freedom to succeede, and freedom to fail. As one Norwegian autor once said ” The one who alwas keeps his fet at the ground is standing still”. Truth about today is made tomorrow or next year !
Folks doubting our descisions is maybe the fuel we need to succede, sometimes lol.
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On Peix a count from top some years ago at 300 usd, down to 1,6 usd (an A), Up to the top some years ago around 10 usd or thereabout. Then a posssible C to where we are today. Its long fetched, but boy what a wave one that would make. Good wekend to all in here.
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All,
Not sure what trend we are in!… do we still have to see a ‘c’? Or, are we on our way up now?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/OHspKXL9/
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Hey C B
That Avatar pic are deer in my front yard in MI a few years back.
Ted Nugent would of slapped me for feeding them and eventually it got way out of hand on my part and the deer and that’s all I got to say about that.
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Wow my Grandmother would of slapped me also for my grammar in that last post.
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will your grandma slap me if I talk like Porter?
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Deer are like cats; once you feed them, they take root. M
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oh, I see, thanks Lee. You can almost see an attitude of gratitude on their “faces(?)”.. gee U like to feed all kinds of creatures..U like to be needed, huh?
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Absolutely C B
My neighbors were ready to call DNR on me but my Chicago charm won at the end of the day.
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Lee, yes that charm is def. your secret weapo : )n..and not to go too much into theory but I could give you a hypothetical U can think about if you want to & if think U do that feeding/giving ‘too much’ cuz U may want 2 know what it tells U. So, again hypothetically, in the human realm: do people like us simply cuz we are who we are, or because of what we can give them? Our true friends like us the way we are, of course. And we’ve prbly all heard the old saying: “I love U cuz I need you, or I need U cause I love U.” That’s two different things..right? ..so if you think along those lines u may learn some interesting things Lee…sorry for overloading the blog with this…
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chicago charm! bwahahaha ohhh my. ha… hoo.. *sniff*
that was good
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R C
You got it also…It’s a gift
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JPM, last 48.63. You can set stop at 49.69 with down side target @45.54. It is almost 2:1.
43 will be the icing on the cake!
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2:1?? my math is not too good..
short James Dimon @ 48.78. 49.70 stop oco 45.54 lmt.
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lower the stop to B/E.
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I was going after a bigger fish, and I didn’t get it..A push.
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Jamie is richer than me..
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Good afternoon Tony
Would this then today be i since we cleared 1506 – to be followed by ii in the move up to V of 3 or too early to tell?
Thank you
Cheers
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PB,
Nice move today off 1497 … yes this would be wave 1
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Tony, Friday is turning into a good market day, as folks anxiously sell of during week and sellers arent much around, even if buyers are few.
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even goldilocks got a bid
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Thank you sir
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hard to believe that the dbl 50% confluence @1512-13 and Tony’s ST MAs are gonna be just a little hiccup, but its still early and we live in a strange world, so maybe the bots have seen this guys chart.. http://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPX
in any case one would have to speculate that pplhave moved their stops to 1510ish ..by now 🙂
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try, try again..this shld work..I hope http://stocktwits.com/message/12210137
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Why go for a burger when you have steak at home?? 🙂
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yeah, we’ve heard that before 🙂 Variety is the spice of life..
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hey I3, was asking u yesterday whether ur flying on SQ – I guess U didn’t see the question..
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I guess I get bored listening to crickets when Lee is not around, so I have to keep my mind occupied scanning the Universe…again, nothing wrong with sharing other ppl’s charts esp. if it makes someone a few extra bucks, is it? opinions make markets..
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CB! Sorry for missing your Q. SQ doesn’t fly out of Chicago. We like to to fly with our hometown airline UAL, but Cathy Pacific can get us there faster with a shorter layover, so we are flying CX.
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No problem I asked Lee abouth that deer in his avatar, he missed that too.. 🙂
cathay is a great choice..I rhought that they (sQ) were gonna start flights out of Chicago…if they ever do, try them -they’ve been winning awards for service for many years.. next time, maybe
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CB, I think SQ used to fly to Chicago years ago. Pretty stewardesses!
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great flying assets…. : ) a big part of which is their attitude, of course. Pretty important when U have 2 spend 17-18 hrs on that plane. So much different than the homegrown, shall we say, ho-hum “service.”…a different world & culture entirely
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you can’t just get a stewardess job over there. The applicants have to go through a process like a beauty pageant.
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didn’t know that, I3 -so nice girls finish first – in Singapore…that’s cool.
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AXP looks toppy on daily. Good R/R. Risking .43 for 3.00~4.00.
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last 62.32
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thos setup is voided.
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This is a messed up move. The TA pattern works well, but poo poo happens sometimes..
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TAN coud start a 3rd of a third, good support around 18 usd.
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