tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new highs, DOW +54

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. European markets opened lower but gained 1.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above friday’s SPX 1520 close. As trading began the market started moving even higher. At 10:00 the NAHB was reported slightly lower: 46 vs 47. The rally continued into the afternoon with nothing more than 1 to 2 point pullbacks. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1531. It then pulled back to SPX 1528 before closing at 1531.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.65%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support moves up to the 1523 (for the first time) and 1499 pivots, with resistance now at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts, Building permits, and the PPI at 8:30. Then the FOMC minutes at 2:00.

The market opened higher today and continued to rally until breaking through the OEW 1523 pivot range in the last two hours of trading. As a result of clearing SPX 1525, and then the 1523 pivot range, it would appear Minor wave 4 bottomed at 1498. This count was carried on the DOW charts, and we are upgraded the SPX charts to the same count. It is a bit surprising Minor wave 4 pulled back less than 20 points, while the steepest part of Minor 2 was 50 points. Nevertheless, we can count a third wave underway from SPX 1498: 1525-1514-1531 thus far.

Short term support rises to the 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance now at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1519. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1531

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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180 Responses to tuesday update

  1. tony caldaro says:

    Tuesday’s comments, the wednesday selloff, was the 4th highest ever on the blog.
    Usually an indication of being close to a low.

  2. Ronin I3 says:

    “A funny thing happened on the way to the pivot …”

    What so funny about it?? I don’t like funny talks..

  3. pooch77 says:

    Well we the pivot and 1514 which was resistance so dont think bodes well for bulls.

  4. wcagle says:

    What Happened?

    • mokiepon says:

      Hi wcagle. Wait for Tony’s Update. He will tell you what’s happening. Personally, I think it was trader’s perception from FOMC Minutes that The Fed was seriously thinking about dialing back QE. IMO. M

      • Brent Calis says:

        Exactly that. This shows how much is based on QE.

      • 7dayyss says:

        Isn’t it to early to say something like that, after all we were expecting this pull back according to the waves/pp. Now we have to wait and see if it’s within the expected range!

      • mokiepon says:

        Well Brent, I hear ya and Tony’s been saying it, re: QE ends, so does the bull run in stocks. I’m not saying that’s happening yet, but someday soon. M

      • mokiepon says:

        7day, I was trying to answer wcagle’s question as to what might have triggered the sudden drop, not that the run was over. However, I do agree with Brent (and Tony). QE is the key. M

  5. CygnetNoir says:

    So, a funny thing happened on the way to the pivot …

    well, I did say 1552 or BUST! That is a binary proposition folks … I can’t be wrong. Either spoos goes to 1552 or I go bust. Like I said, either way I win … er … sort of …

    • Lee says:

      Then u should be front running against last weeks low huge here !!!

    • Ronin I3 says:

      CN, At least you could give us a heads up when you were pounding thepanic button..

      I wish I am TheOne with 99.99% winning ratio, but I am not.

      • CB says:

        I3, some days are more amosome than others..all I can say not being as awesome as I should be, I guess, is that on the second hit of 1521 there was + d on 5 min and then…. this happened.. http://www.hilariousgifs.com/ugly-surprise/
        stuff happens.. that’s all

      • CygnetNoir says:

        I hope I did not give the impression that I am a 99.99% winner … I had a great day today on my day trades, where I went -1, +2, -1, -1, +2,+2: in otherds, my win rate was an even fittyfitty, but my wins were a good bit better than my losses.

        For future reference, any time the Dow makes a new high and then takes out the prior day’s low after a lengthy rally, you can bet my finger is quick to go flat, or at least get real small.

  6. Lee says:

    60 minute SPX Dragon count slayed by Lee
    60 Minute DJIA still alive and snorting

  7. mokiepon says:

    Waiting to see bounce at 1514 or before… At least, today. Can’t tell about tomorrow.

    I’m on Lunch break at work. What the heck happened with The Fed? They must be talking about winding down QE…


  8. Lee says:

    Bravo Bots ! take out yesterdays low then a” Hows ur father” up tick
    They have assumed control They have assumed control.
    Have fun guys and enjoy the fed minutes reactions and re reactions

  9. H D says:

    What’s up all? Play suspended at WGC. Total white out desert blizzard. Spectatular to be here. 10 point dip….. not so spectular. Cy’as next week. Save some meat for me.

  10. Ronin I3 says:

    NDX looks awful on the weekly.

  11. Lee says:

    Good luck this afternoon guys !

    Hey C B !

  12. Ronin I3 says:

    Lee, It looks like CL had some curry from Samy’s Curry..
    That is what litterboy says.. http://www.tripadvisor.ie/ShowUserReviews-g294265-d793095-r134399213-Samy_s_Curry-Singapore.html

  13. Lee says:

    Pivot time ..if anyones interested
    +10 handleish from Globex high
    cock a dodoodle do

  14. torehund says:

    sp 500 complex abc down today could be finished now…

  15. blubrd67 says:

    Any opinions on this?

    The 7-year chart for gold shown below is very interesting and useful as it reveals that gold can drop back down as far as its lower supporting trendline and crucial strong support at and above $1500, without it even putting a dent in its long-term bullmarket. It is a strong buy as it approaches this support, and a stop can be placed just below it. A breach of this crucial strong support, which has generated 3 reversals to the upside over the past 18 months, would be a seriously negative technical development, which we would expect to be associated with a deflationary scare.

    • Lee says:

      hey blubrd67
      Tony mentioned $1500 here the other day when I asked about GC.
      I’ve got my GC “guy” who sez if we close under 1477 on a weekly basis were headed to 1430

      • Lee says:

        Thats 1577 todays low …* GC

      • Ryan Parker says:

        Weekly close under $1477 would project to $1400 IMO. Simple C=A. $1924-$1524=400 as A. Then B up to $1798. $1798 less $400 is ~$1400. Near term this seems way overdone and at least a short term bounce seems due but I still think there is more downside to come. $1515 seems like a logical target. Also watch $1575 on a weekly closing basis. While gold has dipped down to $1525ish several times it has always closed those weeks strong up near $1565-$1575.

      • blubrd67 says:

        Thanks for clarification. The bottom line seems to be here, even if other metals were in uptrend, it may not last long if gold is confirmed in a long term downtrend?

        • tony caldaro says:

          Gold has been in along term downtrend since 2011.
          The key level, for the bulls, is the 2012 lows.
          Copper got hit yesterday was uptrending.
          Plat today was uptrending too.

    • tony caldaro says:

      The 33 year chart suggests Gold is tracking its previous bear market.
      Gold has been downtrending since October.
      While the other metals all went into uptrends Gold refused to join.

      • alexh110 says:

        Have you liquidated your core position in Gold now Tony?
        I must admit I’ve no idea where it’s going next: the bullish consolidation pattern I thought was in place has now totally broken down.

        I see Morgan M has a bullish count in place on Platinum. Do you agree with this count, or are you now bearish on all the precious metals?

        • tony caldaro says:

          Have been out of Gold since last year.
          Actually just lightened up on a short position.
          Quite oversold daily/weekly … and +div on hourly.
          PLAT is displaying a similar triple secondary top Gold did before it broke.
          Would be careful on all commodities/metals at this point.

      • Lee says:

        Nice job Tony !
        GC just put in a what we called on the floor a D$#k in the Dirt @1575.76
        CL and perhaps ES going fishing this afternoon

      • Lee says:

        It’s exactly like that . haha

  16. rc1269 says:

    on another note, BAE Systems looks to be one of the first majors to strike on the sequester layoff front. they sent conditional WARN act notices to 3,500 of their ship repair employees. we should expect more of these as we head toward march 1.

  17. pooch77 says:

    Tony got our backfil,now lets see if we close at new high 1532-35

  18. rc1269 says:

    morning folks. there’s a rumor out there that a decent sized HF is blowing up and liquidating commodity p0sitions.

  19. Lee says:


    I hope u guys use stops

  20. mokiepon says:

    Oh Geez, Lookout anyone holding JPM!!! Board wants to throw Jamie out! (Karen F. will be crushed…)



  21. ctfp999 says:

    Hi Tony,

    What is the probability of Int. 5 of Major 3 will be truncated like Int. 5 of Major 1? TIA


  22. Ronin I3 says:

    I will be gone for 2 weeks in March, and I hope I won’t miss this.

  23. torehund says:

    TAN, either a 3rd wave or a C, next stop could be 30 usd

  24. Lee says:

    Lets say someone was short GC..where would u cover ?

  25. manunidhi21 says:

    Hi tony,
    the update on USD vis a vis to other currencies has inverse relation to markets.
    So is that the clue that market is topping up or is it consolidating which probably ends with qe3 or q4 this year

    second any larger view on usd/cad and usd/inr


  26. Lee says:

    RE Bond futures/ZN

    Buy, Sell or hold ?

    Global buyers are snatching it up @ these prices ..they say

  27. theyenguy says:

    You write LONG TERM: bull market .

    Tony, I reply, NO NO NO, please warn your readers that a market top is in, less they suffer financial loss by holding a long position.

    Today, World Banks And Value Stocks Top Out Taking World Stocks To A Grand Finale Finish … As China Stocks Led By Chinese Financials, Trade Lower … http://tinyurl.com/at47a6p ….

    The US Dollar, $USD, traded unchanged at $80.50, portending a breakout higher, after having risen from 79.00 at the beginning of February 2013.
    The currency demand curve, RZV:RZG, shows a rise up to 200 day moving average on the weekly chart suggesting that the demand for currencies has peaked.
    The chart of Major World Currencies, DBV, +0.26, shows it to be topping out.
    The chart of Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, -0.05, shows it to be turning lower.
    The Yen, FXY, is bottoming out, for now, at 104.75.
    Action Forex reports, the EUR/JPY, is trading at 125.185 at the middle of a broadening top pattern; it is as Street Authority relates, When you see the broadening top, the market will eventually drop. The Mario Draghi, OMT, Euro Yen Currency Trade, has peaked.

    The world central banks’, that is the US Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, and the POBC, monetary policies, have in effect printed trillions dollars of dollars to lend to the Major World Banks, IXG, that created and used the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Scheme to flood world markets with bogus speculative trading, based upon the most toxic of debt, such as the Distressed Investments, FAGIX, held by the US Fed, upon which QE1 was based, backed mainly by AIG insured derivative swap contracts, Senior Bank Loans, BKLN, and Junk Bonds, JNK. Now these banks, will be trading lower on competitive currency devaluation, causing investors to derisk out of World Stocks, VT, and delever out of Commodities, DBC.

    The risk off ETN, OFF, has been rising since February 1, 2013, and the Risk On ETN, ONN, has been trading lower since then as well, as investors are derisking out of Emerging Markets EEE, since January 1, 2013, and Nation Investment, EFA, since February 1, 2013.

    Liberalism’s Milton Friedman Free To Choose Floating Currency Regime, has failed, as the US Dollar is no longer sinking. Look for other currencies to stop rising and fall lower, just as the Yen, FXY, fell lower. There is no longer any International Reserve Currency. All currencies, will be following the South African Rand, the British Pound Sterling, and the Japanese Yen lower in Competitive Currency Devaluation.

    The chart of Leveraged buyouts PSP, shows a grand finale climax, most likely an evening star pattern. It will no longer pay to create debt to buy out companies. Companies that have done this, such as the Carlisle Companies, CSL, are climaxing out in value, or turning lower in value such as Apache Oil, APA.

    The Guardian reports The OECD economies shrank at end of 2012: GDP across 34 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development members fell 0.2% in final quarter of last year. And EuroNews reports OECD economies contract for first time since 2009.

    • Lee says:

      the yen guy
      Could u just post the part how Tony is wrong and then post the link to ur own site please.
      I post incredible/actionable trade ideas here in real time with ground breaking videos along side.
      Try this for example:
      You write LONG TERM: bull market .
      Tony, I reply, NO NO NO, please warn your readers that a market top is in, less they suffer financial loss by holding a long position. http://tinyurl.com/at47a6p

  28. mokiepon says:

    Hey CN, is that you?! I’m watching you on Squawk Box right now: The Homeless Billionaire!


  29. Lee says:

    SPX looks like a short here for a trade Just my opinion

  30. budfox9450 says:

    Tony…great stock on CG….Thank you…..

  31. piotrekfx says:

    Tony. What if we correct a bit to below 1530 and stay there (so within 1523 pivot)? Back to the previous count? more bearish one? thx

  32. best performers today were $DGIT a short ,in the weekly 2faced shorts, profitable by 28% today, and $PBM in the monthly 2faced shorts, profitable by 15% today.

  33. friday, after market update, 2013/02/15
    A. short term indicators/systems:

    eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal. the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    qqq indicator: +4, down 1 point, remains on buy signal.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    smart money indicator: -8 , unchanged. remains on sell signal. a -8 is usually a sell.
    feb. monthly 2faced longs 0.88% loss today. holds for an entire month.
    feb. monthly 2faced shorts 2.03% profit today. holds for an entire month.
    weekly 2faced longs, 025% profit today. holds longs for 5 days
    1.65% profit for enire week
    weekly 2faced shorts,0.24% profit today. holds shorts for 5 days.
    1.14% profit for the week.

    weekly 2faced trades closed at 4pm closing bell for 2.79% combo profit.
    spy made a 0.31% profit for the week.
    new weekly trades at closing bell will be presented later.
    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    still working on fine tuning the algo for both the weekly and daily 2faced systems.

    spy -0.12% today.

    B. long term indicators or systems:
    crash indicator at +2 down for +6 last friday, 02/15.next update will be on 2013/02/22. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.

    C. trades:
    33% long, 1% long in spy puts. see blog for today’s trade details.. waiting on minor pullback to re-institute more long positions.
    long term folio buy signal possibly coming up for next week, buy aapl, a 10% allocation of total portfolio, watch for signal.

    D. stock watch:
    long break outs:$HPTS,$ENMD,$OCCUR..

    short break outs: $BLOV, $ELLI, $PERRI, $LQDI.

    E. actions:
    see blog for today’s trades.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  34. mokiepon says:

    To: moo, asked about uvxy earlier today

    I think Sequester volatility MIGHT start to affect stocks beginning next week. If you’re seeking a way to drop your position with as little blood as possible, Sequester or wave 4 down might be your out. Just start watching it and you’ll see it react pretty much as i described. When traders start buying runs, you’ll be able to see it.

    Other than that, a $50M diamond heist might be worth considering. (Kidding… well, maybe not; if I were younger and could afford to do time…)


  35. Hi Tony, just want to make sure that I understood the SPX count. So we are in the process of finishing intermediate wave 3, which should end in the 1550’s. After that intermediate wave 4 should occur, which I assume can’t pull back beyond 1474 (start of intermediate wave 1). After that, intermediate wave 5 should then go somewhere past the top of intermediate wave 3 (but could truncate). Then we are set for Major wave 4, which shouldn’t pull back beyond 1422 (top of major wave 1). And then a final push of major wave 5 to potentially the 1700 range. Is that an accurate assessment of the waves to come over the next several months?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Correct except for the last part.
      Doubt Major 5 will reach 1700, but Primary V may.

    • timing101 says:

      From the weekend update:
      Major waves 1 and 2 completed at SPX 1422 and SPX 1267 in 2012, and Major wave 3 has been underway since that low. Currently the market is rising in Intermediate wave iii. Having completed Int. waves i and ii at SPX 1475 and SPX 1343. When this uptrend ends, Int. wave iii, an Int. wave iv correction should follow. Then another uptrend will complete Int. v and Major wave 3. Then after a Major wave 4 correction, a Major wave 5 uptrend should complete Primary III. Finally after a Primary IV correction, a minimum of another uptrend will be required to complete Primary wave V. This should all occur by the end of 2013

  36. valunvstr says:

    MACD has wiped out the negative divergence on the weekly charts and while TRIX and RSI8 all have negative divergences still, they are very overbought levels. That would suggest an impending pullback but not the END of the bull market. The chart and oscillators look suspiciously similar to the 2006 run into mid 2007. MACD wiped out the divergence. There was a top at 1540 and a pullback to 1480. It then led to a slightly higher high and a negative divergence where the market fell to 1350ish. Then the rally to 1576 and collapse in momentum led to the market top. It would not surprise me if something similar occurred. Minus the collapse of that magnitude of course. Just a more normal bear market this time around. If there is such a thing.

  37. llerias7 says:

    Fill me in here: 1550´s isn´t the top of Minor 3 of a Major (Intermediate) 3 ?

  38. M1 says:

    It looks like minor 3 is still underway. 1498 could be only the second wave of minor 3.

  39. pooch77 says:

    Tony,backfill/test 1524 then up to 1552 Friday/Monday ??? Just a thought here guys/gals Nov low was 1347,low to high has been a minium of 200 SnP points and 3 months time,we are getting very close.

  40. mokiepon says:

    Tony, great job keeping track of al these waves! Someday, I’ll be able to do it, but not today.

    Question: I know that time frames are likely secondary to index levels, but would like ot know if you still think Minor 5 will be done by end of February? Thanks again! M

    • pooch77 says:

      M ,get your gunpowder ready for top and ride down!!!

    • tony caldaro says:

      you will, and yes … february ends next week

    • wcagle says:

      It could have ended today….3 months from the November 16 low, Also looks like a head & shouders pattern on the monthly chart. It will be interesting to see if the FED starts hinting at taking away the punch bowl and what the market reaction will be. My guess is that Tony’s former comment about the market selling off in the March-May timeframe will come to pass, with the final push in the summer. Also, won’t the “big boys” need to buy the indexes at a lower level so they can sell into the March End of Month/Quarter window dressing? lol

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