holiday update

SHORT TERM: US markets closed, DOW (YM) +6

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%: mostly Japan. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US markets were closed for Presidents day. At the close of futures trading the SPX (ES) was +1.25, and the NDX (NQ) was +3.50. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold lost $3, and the USD was higher. Tomorrow: the NAHB housing index will be reported at 10:00. Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance still at the 1523 and 1552 pivots.

USD

Over the weekend we upgraded the USD/DXY charts to a more bullish count. Several factors involving the CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY and Gold/commodities contributed to the upgrade. We are no longer expecting a retest of the 2011 lows. The recent retest of the 2012 lows looks sufficient. The seven year USD bull market continues.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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84 Responses to holiday update

  1. FRIDAY, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/02/22

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal. a thursday’S, 2013/02/21, close below 1511 spx triggered a SELLl signal AND IS STILL ON A SELL, the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    qqq indicator: -8, down 1 point, has now triggered a sell short signal on thursday.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    smart money indicator: -6 , up 3 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
    feb. monthly 2faced longs 1.11% profit today. holds for an entire month.
    feb. monthly 2faced shorts 0.59% profit today. holds for an entire month. monthly combined longs and shorts net about a 2.84% profit to day this month vs +0.43% for spy.
    weekly 2faced longs, 2.41% profit today. holds longs for a full week.
    weekly 2faced shorts, 0.32% loss today. holds shorts for a full week.
    a net 4.71% profit for combo longs and shorts this week or 2.35% on entire 20 stock position – positions closed at friday’s close.
    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    $SPY+0.98% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +4 versus last friday’s +2.next update will be on 2013/02/29. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    23% invested, 10% short, 13% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. waiting on minor pullback to possibly re-institute more long positions.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:$GUID, $RPRX, $RDEN $ELLI broke down on thursday.
    LONG break out watch: $OESX broke out last monday,, $CZR broke out thursday, $RSOL, $NFLX, $ANGI.

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a SELL short signal has finally been triggered by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator. locked in some decent short term profits, awaiting a short term pop to short more tna . i will probably add some non-tna shorts as well.
    see blog for today’s trades. i will soon be trading the weekly 2faced system in my account, a conservative profit goal will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

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  2. Ronin I3 says:

    I am glad today’s snooze fest is over.

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  3. scorp100 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Do you have any targets for GOOG?

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  4. wcagle says:

    Fear to put on a short position = market top???

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