Valentine’s day update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then recovery, DOW -10

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 341K vs 366K. Also, last night the FED released governor Tarullo’s senate testimony: The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1515, then dipped to 1514 before starting to rally. The SPX had closed at 1520 yesterday. For the rest of the day the market continued to gradually move higher, with only two point pullbacks. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1523, then pulled back to lcose at 1521.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold dropped $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow, options expiration friday: the NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then Consumer sentiment at 10:00.

The market gapped down at the open today, for the first time since a week ago monday, then bounced right back with limited upside resistance. After yesterday’s SPX 1525 high the market pulled back 11 points, and then found support at the previous short term highs: 1514/1515. Did the market just complete a Micro 1-2 from SPX 1498, favoring the alternate DOW count? Or, a Minute A and now B favoring the SPX count? Tough call.

Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum rose above neutral today. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1515. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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170 Responses to Valentine’s day update

  1. Pingback: Communication Technology Update and Fundamentals notice · WWW.MINFOWIZ.COM

  2. Ronin I3 says:

    Toodaloo Page 86 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2013!

  3. Ronin I3 says:

    C’mon, green, green, green, and live up to the up mkt day before the 3 day weekend!

  4. HumbLEEd says:

    .50% back pit and PP @ 1516.50 ESH
    Trade em if ya got em

  5. CJ says:

    I have been banished to my room for the entire holiday weekend. Must re read Dale Carnegies “How to make friends and influence people”
    If I offended anyone yesterday, I truly apologize.
    The south side of Chicago’s demon got a hold of me with too much Valentine cheer


  6. Ronin I3 says:

    if you picked the top today, you have my salute!

  7. rc1269 says:

    pausing at 1514… uh oh – do the 10pt bots gotcha again?!

  8. Ronin I3 says:

    This is nothing..I had sailed with 20+knots in a Laser with the water half way up to my knees.

  9. rc1269 says:

    looks like WMT’s leaked Feb sales email providing the catalyst to get things going.
    Tony – you thinking mid 1490s for 4? seems like that would work alright. the 1500 stops get hit, clear em out down to 1495 or so, then free to go on to 5. sure why not
    that’s my story and i’m stickin to it. at least for a day or two

  10. H D says:

    1 min till impact eyes on 1510.75

  11. mokiepon says:

    I know Tony said gold was going to $1500, but really! Also, someone blogged on yesterday’s thread that he thought gold was ripe for a fall, along with favoring SCO, etc. Congrats to whomever made that call. Haven’t had time to look back at Thursday’s thread yet. M

  12. HumbLEEd says:

    I feel like a past middle aged hipster talking about how vinyl records were the bomb when Im talking here about futures and the past .
    I think I just stared into the abyss and didn’t see anybody looking back. Dam u internet I gave u my best shot. I don’t want to be “that guy”
    I think I’m burnt out again after 1 day back LOL.
    I just post too darned much. I think Ill watch Ben Affleck play and eat animal crackers off Liv Tylers stomach in the fore mentioned classic Armageddon

    • rc1269 says:

      don’t leave us Lee. some of us jokers are still slaves to a day job and just can’t read and post as much as we’d always like. but that doesn’t mean we don’t love a good dose of your snark when we can get it!
      admittedly, for my money it doesn’t get a whole lot better than bruce willis and liv tyler, with a little steven tyler wailing in the background. (and some steve buscemi too of course)

      • Ronin I3 says:

        space cowboys can’t sing..

      • CB says:

        hey, don’t blame me -I said “welcome back” didn’t I – I am too shy to say anything more right now :))

      • CB says:

        gee, eureka! is seems that ‘the abysmal’ syndrome must have sth to do with Merc going retrogr. 23feb-17 march in Pisces, and most planets currently also being in Pisces- – so we’re just gonna drowning in deep emotional waters for a while – so GL everyone looking into the abyss :)… lots of water everywhere… & watch ur alcohol intake guys if you happen to be susceptible.

  13. H D says:

    ya Lee, Tim:paper ended up buying 500 plus contracts with an average price of 1520.20.$

    • HumbLEEd says:

      Thanks H D
      I guess that was UBS who bought and Merrill who sold it to them and Merrill sold 500 more SPHS after that
      The Bots are wondering why they did it in the pit..Is it our breath ?

  14. H D says:

    AZ beer week festival starts manana
    That’s all that is keeping from the edge….

    • HumbLEEd says:

      🙂 Nice H D
      Todays word is sell stops..

      • H D says:

        according to twatter the pits r long 500 bigs. I call bs

      • HumbLEEd says:

        500 bigs ? Thats 20% of the daily volume in the S&P pit.
        Twitter has a bunch of guys who never traded in the pit giving info on the 27 guys in the pit who are they’re because theyre bag men or they hate their wifes. IMHO 😛
        It sounds exciting to people I guess to subscribe and feel they’re getting the edge with a gravely voiced guy who probably used to sell beef jerky on the floor before this gig.
        Guys I know that might sound like what u kids call “hating” hahah but if u met these guys u would totally understand ..They’re not bad guys at all just hanging onto dear life as it used to be.

      • HumbLEEd says:

        Hey H D
        Tim ? He used to work for Merrill back in the day.. Good guy though never traded in the pit

  15. tommyboys says:

    Pretty decent data today net net…

    Feb 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Feb 10.0
    Feb 15 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Dec $64.2B
    Feb 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jan -0.1%
    Feb 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jan 79.1%
    Feb 15 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb 76.3

    • torehund says:

      Yes Tommy, cant see it priced in at these levels.
      One digression, US withdrawing from the middle east could possibly be linked to declining reserves of oil in that region. Just thinking that easy oil is maybe soon history and deep water artic exploration is whats soon left. Then Ethanol and out pasture crops for drought insensitive corn is the new petroleum alternative. I see US fueled by Ethanol, nuclear small plants and some solar7other renewables as the thing to come. And where are the peak-oliers these days..gone and thats bull.

      • torehund says:

        Also look out for PSDV, think potential sellers have all gone fishing, and thats not by incidence, pounded by good news for ages and nothing happened..bull.

      • tommyboys says:

        Energy consumption is down from the peak a few years ago. Many once commuters are now working remotely (me for one) thanks to these neat new communication technologies LOL… Alternatives like solar and nuclear will become a larger portion of energy consumption while new technologies (fracking) in unlocking domestic sources of oil and NG will (are) ramp up additional supply of these commodities likely causing the US to become a net exporter of these in the not too distant future. $100/bbl oil may be near the peak now with lower prices ahead. This thesis – if it plays out – is all bullish for the consumer and macro economy imho.Time will tell.

      • tommyboys says:

        Since you’re into “green” technologies check out this newer IPO GNIN – paper products from bamboo. This thing has been on a tear since its earnings and other announcements last few weeks. It’s doubled in two weeks working on a triple today!

      • torehund says:

        Tommy, commodity quenching of growth is not a problem today as it used to be in the 2001 or so when dollar was record high. As US grows the increasing value of the dollar can put a lid to commodity prices. Its a win win situation from here.

      • tommyboys says:

        Agree. My point is that we’ll see reduced demand for oil due to alternatives and efficiencies yet produce more of it – thus become net exporters. Prices will net drop as a result without even considering a stronger dollar. You are correct on this and it will add to the downward pressure on oil prices imho.

      • torehund says:

        Tommy that bambo thing, gee who would strech the green so far, sellers in that share has to be on fishing permanently or they are at some institutions, they will probably get damn rich too, lol,lol.

      • torehund says:

        Tommy if oil gets overheated the USD uses summer to quench its exuberance..I think..

    • torehund says:

      Tommy maybe you are right, that oil is already a past issue, no wonder uncle Sam left the middle east, sort of..

  16. H D says:

    746.50 POinterest if that was ABC back ZW

  17. Ronin I3 says:

    C’mon little buddy, you can do it!

    • torehund says:

      He is wobbling like the market…
      There is something going on inEthanol market, BIOF goes huge, hope PEIX follows…

  18. HumbLEEd says:

    Its the pivot silly ..till its not
    No way we reach 200 on my posts I’m done 🙂

  19. Ronin I3 says:

    magic 8 ball, will we top 200 posts today?
    the market is up most of the time before a 3 day weekend.

    • pooch77 says:

      Presidents’ Day,
      By Jeffrey A. Hirsch

      Page 86 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2013, points out that Presidents’ Day is the poorest performing holiday of the eight holidays that are tracked. Unlike the others, the trading day before and the trading day after this three-day holiday weekend are both down on average over the past 33 years.

      Depending on how February lays out in a monthly calendar, the Tuesday after Presidents’ Day is either the first trading day of option expiration week or the week after options expiration week. In the table below, the years when Presidents’ Day occurs in the week after option expiration are highlighted. In these years, losses on the day after tend to exceed the average loss for all years. 2013 falls into this category.

      Regardless if the holiday is in the third or fourth week of February, the Friday before has a miserable track record with the least bad performance coming from the Russell 2000 small-cap index. It has managed to advance in 10 of the past 22 years. This modest outperformance could be attributed to the fading January Effect which is the tendency of small-cap stocks to outperform large caps from mid-December through mid-to-late February.

    • CB says:

      gm all..hhaa.I3,so does it mean it realiably goes down after a 3-day h-day?

    • pooch77 says:

      I am long ,i am looking for 1528 then down,maybe ,maybe not

    • pooch77 says:

      Roni,i went long before close yesterday,looking for 1528 and a failure to breakout of 1524 pivot,vix drop to 12 and a very nice potential short signal

    • Ronin I3 says:

      I thought mentioning an up market before 3 day weekend is something you guys like to hear, since you all are long..As I mentioned earlier, I am a team player..

  20. dwr51 says:

    I was curious about your thoughts on Nat Gas

    • tony caldaro says:

      NatGas is trying to establish a bull market.
      But supply is keeping prices suppressed.
      It needs to clear $4.00.

      • Brent Calis says:


        Looking at the downward trajectory of UNG, it looks like the contango has stabilized substantially over the last year. Is it foolish to think that if Natural Gas retests the lows from last year that UNG might be a good option. Not the kinds of risks associated with it when the price of natural gas was soaring 5 years ago?

        Thanks again for all your help!

  21. H D says:

    everything is getting slammed and ES 1521? OK

  22. tommyboys says:

    Here’s maybe the best articulated case I’ve heard for the US residing in the infancy of a multi-year – decade+ “super bull”…

  23. HumbLEEd says:

    That’s why this blog is the best !
    Actionable ideas with daily updates and the host with the most comes by and calls BS on ya every once in a while 🙂

  24. rc1269 says:

    JPM and RBC just both came out with reports saying that there are no signs of the the rally stalling any time soon. so now i’m on high alert…

  25. HumbLEEd says:

    Catching up and reading the posts..very interesting to say the least and I will say the least .
    There’s so many ways to skin a cat in this biz were in. I always liked making money everyday but that must be the hillbilly in me 😉 Trade well guys and gals
    God Bless the USA !

  26. HumbLEEd says:

    I don’t know .382 of what the playas here at Tonys know about playing the mkts and life ect.. but I do know that the “Man” knew that we’d get hit by this meteor .

    • tony caldaro says:

      The fireball reports spread just hours before a 150-foot-wide asteroid was due to make a close flyby, coming within 17,200 miles of Earth. It’s unlikely that there’s any connection between the fireball and the encounter asteroid, known as 2012 DA14. However, a bright flash and explosion in midair would be consistent with the atmospheric entry and breakup of a large meteoroid.

      If 2012 DA14 were to hit Earth, the scenario might play out in a similar way, but with a far more powerful impact.

      • HumbLEEd says:

        Uh Didn’t u ever see the movie Armageddon with Bruce Willis ?
        So it was just a meteoroid running in front of the Asteroid like Burt Reynolds in Smokey and the Bandit ?
        So if DA14 were to have hit it would of been like a Tunguska event u think ?
        Thanks Tony !

        • tony caldaro says:

          Yes, did, Livvvv Tyler was in it.
          That’s a big 10-4.
          Tonguska was not a meteor event, and Columbus did not discover America.

          • tony caldaro says:

            One last note.
            If we were to get hit by a huge meteor, why tell the public and panic them?
            There is nothing they can do about it anyway.
            Sad but True.

          • HumbLEEd says:

            Liv mmmm Asteroid check…

            Columbus was about 2500 years late I agree..
            Was it the ancient Greeks mining for copper up in Wisconsin and the Upper UP Island Royale ect ?

            • tony caldaro says:

              Way before that, by about 50,000 years.
              An island in the South Pacific went through a period of plate tectonic shift between 52,000 and 50,000 years ago.
              The island eventually went under.
              But some of the peoples headed to the Americas, and others west.

      • HumbLEEd says:

        One last note.
        “If we were to get hit by a huge meteor, why tell the public and panic them?
        There is nothing they can do about it anyway.”

        Exactly !

      • HumbLEEd says:

        Gee wiz 50,000 years ago…see I’m just a ST thinker ;(

  27. mokiepon says:

    Mornin’ Everyone. Have dentist most the morning, but hope to get to watch mkts by noon-ish. Best of trading/investing to you today. M

  28. valunvstr says:


    What is you long term count for EAFA? ABC like emerging or bull market wave like s&p 500?

  29. best performer in 2faced longs, weekly, was $CIMT, + 9.9%.

  30. wednesday, after market update, 2013/02/13
    A. short term indicators/systems:

    eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal. the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    qqq indicator: +3, down 2 points, remains on buy signal.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    smart money indicator: -8 , inchanged. remains on sell signal. a -8 is usually a sell.
    feb. monthly 2faced longs 0.97% profit today. holds for an entire month.
    feb. monthly 2faced shorts 0.42% profit today. holds for an entire month.
    weekly 2faced longs, 0.99% profit today. holds longs for 5 days
    weekly 2faced shorts,0.72% profit today. holds shorts for 5 days.

    still working on fine tuning the algo for both the weekly and daily 2faced systems.

    spy +0.09%.

    B. long term indicators or systems:
    crash indicator at +6 on friday, 02/ update will be on 2013/02/15. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.

    C. trades:
    no trades today. still 99% cash except for spy puts. waiting on minor pullback to re-institute 100% long positions.
    long term folio buy signal possibly coming up for next week, buy aapl, a 10% allocation of total portfolio, watch for signal.

    D. stock watch:
    long break outs:kerx, sgmo, isis mcbc, svu, ctcm., adding furx ……………………and bby

    short break outs: lqdt,fbc, bcv,kbalb,mflix, fbc, sanm, fbc, iag, osis. adding lqdt.

    E. actions:
    no trades today.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  31. Ronin I3 says:

    I am just a Holligan from Chicago. I think people here are smart enough not to follow others’ trades. I may sound like snobbish or come across as a jackass, but I am really a nice guy. I I like to go long term when SPX is at 400! 🙂

    • sdsteve says:

      Id like to start at around 800 and average down if I had to…
      I spent 40 years near Chicago before escaping to South Dakota, the SDin my name ;)…
      Too old to be a Hooligan much anymore!!!

      • Ronin I3 says:

        Hello Steve in S. Dakota! What part of Chicago were you. The city is still nice, but people are moving out of the state because the sad financial condition we are in…We are never too old to be a Hooligan! Start from 800 sounds like a plan, and add more as people are freaking out. 😉

      • sdsteve says:

        I used to work in Cicero and Franklin Park, forging steel when the men were men and the women liked it!!!
        I lived all over the suburbs over the years…
        Never was a real Chicago resident or fan…

      • HumbLEEd says:

        Welcome sdsteve !
        I grew up in Little Village just east of Cicero IL in Chicago
        My Grandparents lived in Cicero from the early 50’s till the late 90’s
        My Dad worked and retired from Western Electric in Cicero.
        Cicero … that was a town that was made for real men..It had it all 😉

  32. sdsteve says:

    Hi Tony been lurking here for years now, thank you…
    Im just wondering if there’s and alternate bear count to be found???

    • tony caldaro says:

      Welcome SD,
      No, do not have one at the moment.

      • sdsteve says:

        On your long term chart, any chance that from SC1 we had an A down to 666 followed by the rally from there to here which would be a big B wave with the big bear C coming to complete SC2???
        Yea Im feeling a bit bearish LOL
        I cant see a real SC3 without clearing out the lots of fraud and corruption followed by real reforms…

  33. Tom Green says:

    I shouldn’t even be hanging out here. This is candy for me. OEW is a fascination to me, and a serious endeavor that I’m 100% committed to master. That said, I’ve have been in the public markets for 30+ years, and have had the pleasure of being an entrepreneur starting my own businesses for the last decade, with enduring the same up and downs of the economy, and all the nonsense and regulation that Washington has thrown at the small business owner.

    The point is don’t lose focus on the long term. Yeah, I sound like all the talking heads on the media. But today I cashed a very large check thanks to Uncle Warren in HNZ that I have owned for over 25 yrs. Listen to Horehund, but do your own analysis. I own presently, what used to be a small pharmaceutical company called Shire Pharma. Stock trading 95-100, own it at $4. Got luckily, but knew what I was doing.

    The advice I given to my kids I would give to anyone. They are both involved in DRIP plans with GE, JNJ, and Exxon. Think we got the basis covered for the long term. This s a thirty year plan. Hope the market gets down, they get to buy at lower prices and the dividends buy them more shares.

    Everyone here is focused on the short/intermediate terms, and I love it. Don’t try to make a living out of it. Use it as a hedge against your long term goals. Or in my case, sometimes it’s cheaper than going to Vegas. I still feel it is a way to create some short term wealth. I take it you were fortunate to do some accumulation in 2009. Kudos.

    • Tom Green says:

      Forgot to mention. I am very fortunate to run across Tony. He is one of the most accomplished and unselfish persona I’ve ever run across. A true gift to the world. You should all be so blessed to learn and nourish yourselves from his knowledge and what he freely offers. Hopefully you will all be better at your endeavors.

      • CB says:

        well put TG, Tony is a blessing to all of us + thanks for ur advice!

      • mokiepon says:

        CB says:

        February 14, 2013 at 9:12 pm
        well put TG, Tony is a blessing to all of us + thanks for ur advice!

        Excuse me while I lose my dinner. Good night to All. Melinda

      • CB says:

        Hey girl, chin up, OK? 🙂 You seem to have a lot on your plate & you’re definitely doing a great job! So, thanks for finding time for us here & sharing your ideas/comments with us. I am sure you know how much we all appreciate you. Everyone has his/her unique experiences, so we can all benefit from one another’s advice. I think it’s great to listen to others and be open to all kinds of ideas.

    • mokiepon says:

      Tom, I’ve been collecting stocks for decades myself. Regarding who I blog with here, I make my own decisions and friends, and am always open to ideas of others, yet, will ALWAYS do what’s best for me. Long-term? I’m submerged up to my eyeballs in long term! The one thing I don’t want, or need at almost 60 years of age, is a Daddy! I certainly don’t mind listening to a friend, but the tone of your note is utterly snobbish. “I shouldn’t even be hanging out here. This is candy for me.” Okay, so why are you here? And you needed to begin your note and tell me this because why?

      We all have different situations in life that require attention and priorities have to be set. I wish you 100% mastery of OEW.


      • wcagle says:

        You go girl! Great response to TG!!!

        Try to sell that “buy & hold” argument to those people who were invested from 2000-2002 on it’s elevator ride down to 750+/-, then bungee back up to 1576 at the 2007 top, which took 5 years to regain what they lost in the 2 year swoon from 2000-2002. Then another elevator ride down to 666 in 18 months at the March 2009 bottom! Now here we are almost 4 years later at 1525. If history is any guide, will we have another elevator ride down and how long will it be??? IMHO, buy & hold strategy has died and the bots and HFT run this casino-rigged market for their own benefit. On another note, as the baby boomers are ready to retire and need a conservative place for their investment, they can only get .25 on a CD, thus forcing them into riskier assets at the casino???? The big boys & political lackey’s in DC have really put it to this large class of people and benefited greatly on our backs.

      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle – If you had bought and held good, solid dividend paying stocks and new tech stocks (like aapl at IPO), held them through all the ups and downs to now, you’d be so far ahead; I can’t begin to calculate it right now. I agree with you that there’s many a person who should be in jail, considering what was done with MBS; and I don’t mean the lowly trader sitting in a cubicle. It’s a frightening world out there, which is why it’s important for me to learn as much as I can about investing and the various instruments available. There are no guarantees on/of anything, not even ‘govt backed’ or FDIC. (They give you an IOU.)

        There’s coming a time a later this year when i will be selling all my stocks and holding strictly cash. When you get to a certain age, it’s important to re-arrange the portfolio somewhat. I want to go shopping at the market bottom, again.


    • mokiepon says:

      Forgot to mention, I was 12 years old when I traded my first stock through my parent’s account. Perhaps you’ve noticed that I also have a regular job and am not trying to make a living trading either. M

      • wcagle says:

        M, Didn’t get into Apple…just remember when it was $8 and talking to a friend about it being dead….lol. I was in INTC early and look where it is today….basically sideways from 2002. Is that where Apple is destined to go do? It just upsets me to see market gains wiped out by the up and down swings and see the “Too big to fail Banks” bailed out at our expense! I too intend to buy again at the market bottom….I hope I can recognize it when I see it.

      • mokiepon says:

        wcagle, my personal opinion on aapl is I placed it on death watch with that of Steve Jobs. Tim Cook is a good CEO, but he isn’t the visionary that built aapl.

        Keep in mind that some, not all, but some of the up and down swings are normal for stock markets and learning to read (or re-read) the signs is why I’m here. I want to learn OEW once tax time is over and be ready for whatever comes at us.

        My best to you, wcagle. Perhaps OEW might help you. It helps me everyday; I’m always learning something new here.

        Dentist, gotta go. Back later.


  34. pooch77 says:

    Well,hoping for a gap up tomorrow,want to see one more test of 1524 pivot and reject it to give me a half way decent signal that we are moving down,,with my luck we will have a gap down and i may have Valentines hangover…

    • torehund says:

      Pooch dont hang on to the last 13 years, thats not where we will spend the next 20… Portray yourself in a different future and invest accordingly. Listen all, 1500 is stagnant water for 13 full years, where do we stand as of today compared to the year 2000 ?

    • mokiepon says:

      Hi pooch. Wondered when you’d come out of your doghouse. Might want to see 1525ish tested again several times. JMO. M

      • pooch77 says:

        Spent most of my day shoveling and sno blowing and running errands ,before you know it,its time to call her a day

  35. torehund says:

    M- men are only like Mayflies, not meant to survive for very long but oto conform to natures pattern of reproductivity. its not by intent that men behave as they do its nature…

    • mokiepon says:

      “…its not by intent that men behave as they do its nature…”

      torehund, not buying it. That’s a poetic that’s been used from Nero to Hitler, so be careful how far you take it. Not saying you’re doing that, but those of us who were raised by WW2 parents (in my case, darn near WW1), it doesn’t go over well. M

      • torehund says:

        In a sense I agree, but we all have to conform to the pattern of the waves, whenever we are at the strongest we are actually at the weakest, ready to dacay.. If we dont have a strugggle(big problems ahead ), struggle tells us that we are on our way to something, when its over we are also done with. The greatest civilizations always succumbed to misery, beacuse there wasnt any struggle left.. Wether a correction in ABC or something worse we dont know, our only protection is when we work something out. Same in relationships !

      • torehund says:

        Melinda, nature didnt excist to make something easy for us, and if it did we would not make it to space in the future… Look, the world is like a bacterias on a cake, too easy, to survive as species wee need to conquer space. Thats the soulution.
        When folks look back at what NAS was in 2000 they look in the past, and thats not where we will live in tomorrow.

      • torehund says:

        Melinda and all, changes just happen when things are skewed too far into one certain direction until there anew is a balance of forces, as in stocks as in relationship as in universe itself… Out of nothing things change, and some individuals will by nature be elected by nature to front the reveresals (but never the politicians, because they always mirror current sentiment, otherwise the woulsd not be there).

      • mokiepon says:

        torehund says:
        February 14, 2013 at 5:10 pm

        “In a sense I agree, but we all have to conform to the pattern of the waves, whenever we are at the strongest we are actually at the weakest, ready to dacay.. If we dont have a strugggle(big problems ahead ), struggle tells us that we are on our way to something, when its over we are also done with. The greatest civilizations always succumbed to misery, beacuse there wasnt any struggle left.. Wether a correction in ABC or something worse we dont know, our only protection is when we work something out. Same in relationships !”

        torehund, in the greater sense, I agree. Struggle is needed to build character. M

      • Tom Green says:

        M and Torehund Wow,

        Lets put all the behavioral stuff behind. I’ve found my feminine inter self along time ago, raised two fine gentlemen, and have been with my spouse for 38 yrs, not counting the time we co habitated in some dives in CN’s territory in Tucson. Now, on to the Market.

        Up or Down? Not micro caps, but the big picture. Not short term.

        If you can give me some substance I will share some important insights.

        Happy Valetines to both of you blog lovers, sorry Pouch, M already as a place in her heart for you.


      • mokiepon says:

        T2T, define “substance”. The only thing I can offer is the need to see spx break and stay above (preferably close above) 1525. M P.S. Always room in my heart for All! M

      • mokiepon says:

        T2T, awaiting your insight(s). M

  36. rc1269 says:

    Thanks Tony!

    in other news… Icahn goes for the jugular on HLF. good luck Ackman!

  37. torehund says:

    Solar invertedness !

  38. tjhere says:

    Anybody else notice the strong correlation in the Long Bond & SPX beginning around 1pm EST Wed??? Any comments? Have a good evening! It is V-tines Day! Adult content omitted, Boys & Girls.

    • mokiepon says:

      tj, I wasn’t monitoring it. Give us a recap, please? M

      • tjhere says:

        I have a 13min chart to monitor intraday. TLT gap down open 2/13 had the usual rise in SPX & inverse correlation thru AM, But both moved down in the PM then up today. Might be separate fundamentals or Fed QE but one will win the trend & the other LOOSE!!!

      • mokiepon says:

        Thanks tj ad CB. I’ll watch this more closely. M

    • CB says:

      thnks TJ. What does that tell you?
      the only comment I have is that the jap yen is starting to make moves and we have a
      -d at 1523, fwiw

      Thnks Tony!

  39. torehund says:

    M- was fast enough to serve with you with gratitude, but I will join her as I just need some ground control and stringency that you provide. Maybe I contribute too, hope so !
    Today iIam thinking of the power of giving up. Just think of all those investors that embraced the green enery notion some years ago, it has been a nightmare. From the last fractal, investors in these papers have all given up , just hiding their investemnt from their wives and acquaintances, a glance at the misfortune inflict instant poison to their perceived manlyhood. Exactly, no one wants to be a fiasco, so why bother salting the wounds by looking at a 1000 percent down investment.
    Isnt that an answe to why TAN is surging ?

    • torehund says:

      And no -one notice TAN as the winner every day, its invisible…. Tony explain !

      • budfox9450 says:

        We all have our own investment choices – But – TAN ???
        Think you’d be better off with Tony’s DSX. $ fo $, prefer DSX.
        But, but it on the next pullback, maybe to 8.25….

    • mokiepon says:

      torehund, I always find contributions from you here, every day. Small caps are difficult. One can deal with them when they’re young and recover, but after a certain age, esp. the more speculative ones,… no way. If you’re wise enough to pick up TAN at the bottom, I salute you! Be sure to sell before it drops again, as I know I’ll have to part with some of my favorites before they drop again, and not looking forward to it. M

      • torehund says:

        Meilinda I hold a Norwegian solar play, bu t see how it fares over here. Melinda its just like with shares, as with boyfrinds, those you hate you really crave… I like to play with opposite,s and they attract, world is crazy.

      • mokiepon says:

        torehund, deary, I hate to tell you this, but I got over “Bad Boy Syndrome” years ago! Only took one experience and I was cured!

        However, opposites do attract; as long as they don’t make each other a nervous wreck or kill each other first. M

  40. gary61b says:

    Tony thanks for the update, I am still in the boat sailing the 5th wave of minor 3, I have outboard motor, so not to fatigue myself being alone in the boat rowing with oars.

  41. CygnetNoir says:

    1552 or Bust … USA!

  42. mokiepon says:

    Thanks Tony. Happy Valentine’s Day! M

    • andysingal says:

      looking for 154-155 tomorrow, thoughts Tony and M

      • mokiepon says:

        andy, Friday is the absolute worst day for me to try and call. Usually, I don’t even trade on a Friday before a Holiday; which T2T so kindly reminded me of the one upcoming earlier today. Tony’s your man on this. The trend is up, so, if you’ve got the patience, go for it. M

  43. Thank you, Tony. Hard to call, but very clear two options for the market to take side soon.

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