SHORT TERM: market rediscovers pullbacks, DOW -36
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported positive: +0.1% vs +0.5%, Export prices were higher: +0.5% vs -0.2%, as were Import prices: +0.2% vs -0.1%. The market opened higher, two points above yesterday’s SPX 1519 close. It bounced around a bit before moving higher still. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported positive +0.1% vs +0.3%. Around 10:30 the SPX made a new uptrend higher 1525, displayed a small negative divergence, and then began to pullback. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1518, bounced to 1521 by 2:00, and then pulled back even further. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1516, then bounced into a 1520 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then senate testimony from FED governor Tarullo at 10:30.
The market opened higher today, made a new uptrend high, then had its largest pullback in nearly the past week of trading. With a negative divergence on the hourly/daily charts, and today’s 9 point pullback, Minor wave 4 should be underway. Support for Minor 4 would be at the lower end of the 1499 pivot range. Any rally above 1525, before reaching that low, would suggest Minor 3 is still unfolding. Friday is options expiration, but the recent price action has been on thursdays.
Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a slight negative divergence at today’s high then dropped below neutral. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1513. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1525
LONG TERM: bull market