wednesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +7

Overnight Asian markets gained 1.4%; again mostly Japan. Europe opened higher but lost 0.8%; we have a few confirmed downtrends there now. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened lower at SPX 1507. The SPX had closed at 1511 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 1505, then rallied to 1513 by 1:00 before heading lower again. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1506, then rallied into a 1512 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, a speech from FED governor Stein at 9:30, then Consumer credit at 3:00.

The market opened lower today, dropped down to SPX 1505, rallied to 1513, then stayed within that range for the rest of the day. This ongoing choppy activity continues to suggest either an ongoing completion of Minor wave 3, before a Minor wave 4 pullback, or a complex Minor wave 4. Either way, as this market sorts itself out, Minor 5 will eventually be underway to complete the uptrend. We still feel friday’s high at SPX 1514 was the end of Minor wave 3, and everything since then has been Minor wave 4. We currently have a Minute wave A at SPX 1495, and Minute B at 1515.

Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum declined from yesterday’s negative divergence, dipped below neutral, then bounced back in the afternoon. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1504. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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106 Responses to wednesday update

  1. HumbLEEd says:

    U would think some smart guys were long AAPL or sumthin

  2. HumbLEEd says:

    PP hit ..again 1505.50 He never sleeps He never eats and when he finds you…………………..He’ll just stop u out.. nothing too terrible 😉

    • HumbLEEd says:

      I haven’t been this in tune since I picked the Mets to beat the Red Sox back in the day.

    • CB says:

      thanks a bunch Lee ! I still dont have any clue what the answer to ur question was/is however when you asked it and how you asked it made me some $ , so I really appreciate your question 🙂

      • HumbLEEd says:

        Hey C B
        If I got paid by the question in this biz I’d be a billionaire. 🙂
        I’m sure I come off as white noise here and with me ur only as good as ur last trade so ur doing well !
        I’m going to sit back and listen for a while here.

      • CB says:

        haha..good 1 Lee! maybe you can change ur billing system b’cuz ur questions are excellent plus U know we love ur talking book… I think I sometimes get you & sometimes don’t get you…doesn’t keep me from trying cuz it’s always fun to try to get you. “I’m going to sit back and listen for a while here.” -oh my, ur gonna leave us alone with the crickets now? Well, I kind of get you there with liking to do the opposite a lot…I wonder , though, do U get U, Lee? 🙂 Maybe we can talk about it sometime.

  3. rc1269 says:

    well timed AAPL headline just as stocks were rolling over into the close. it’s almost like… magic

  4. HumbLEEd says:

    Thx guys
    Have a general idea what’s going on …I’ll be around …trade smart

  5. HumbLEEd says:

    Could this by chance be a C wave down here at the 1499 pivot and 89 DMA in a complex word to ur mother ABCDE move in a rising triangle ?

    • HumbLEEd says:

      It’s a question guys …anyone ?

      • HumbLEEd says:

        “Shut up and go eat Lee”

      • CB says:

        dont get ticket off Lee. it’s a question & and an answer…and a good one ..thanks..

      • Tom Green says:


        For now would think we are in an irregular correction. Somewhere in 5 wave sequence of the final C leg down.



      • CB says:

        gee, it just hit me , nothing ticks us off more than someone telling us:don’t get ticked off… Shouldn’t have said that Lee. Mea culpa. “It’s like telling someone to freeze and get down on the floor,” ;P Thnks 4 ur thoughts Lee. Great timing! OK time to “buzz away” again.

        I3, nice it looks like everything is under control since Deniro is watching stuff, right? …and the big eye in the sky is watching us all ….oops, that’s from another movie..isnt it

  6. Tom Green says:

    Lee and Red

    Just a bunch of alter boys here.
    ” in nomine patris et fili et spiritus sancti”

    Father T2T

  7. pw says:

    Thanks Tony. Question. As the s&p climbs higher, will your traditional pivot range of +/-7 pts change (get wider)? Thinking in terms of it as a % of the index.

  8. mokiepon says:

    Could take all day today and tomorrow in attempts to break below 1500. M

  9. HumbLEEd says:

    when it comes down to it there’s only 3 people that should be responsible for u pulling the trigger on trades

  10. H D says:

    testing ES channel support

    • H D says:


      • H D says:

        catching 1 good 1 almost makes the last 4 weeks of misery worth it. MA 89 & pivot. Let em bounce and reload. I think I was goin $300+ per tick for some of that. It’s 9:13 am think I’ll pour a PBR. Cheers till next week.

  11. rc1269 says:

    Lee spoke, the bots listened. must be a level playing field. 😉

  12. ronini3 says:

    Put this on your watch list or trash bin…I don’t care..

  13. HumbLEEd says:

    The scalping ES folks looking for buy stops above 1511 got their sell stops found just now at the pp IMHO Mr Top Step has call the 4 of the actual 0 stop runs theyre due
    PP 1505.50 S1 1500
    R1 1512 S2 1494
    R2 1516.50

    • HumbLEEd says:

      * has called for 4 of the last 0 stp runs.
      All I’m saying is ..there’s not much insightful info to be had from a pit that trades less than 1% of the electronic trade.
      We all have the same charts it’s a level playing field………for humans bwahhahahahahahaha.

  14. HumbLEEd says:

    gratias Tony
    Im ‘questus aetas ad hoc cacas

  15. rc1269 says:

    ES looks like it wants to go up up and away. Lee, any thoughts? Other than how much milk you’d like to put in your coffee this am. 😉

  16. “Bernanke’s willingness to target an unrealistic 3% level for GDP growth is statistically a microscopic error, a picayune mistake. Unfortunately, though, in the hands of probably the most influential man in the global economic world, it is an extremely dangerous one. I like the analogy of the Fed beating a donkey (the 1% growing economy) for not being a horse (his 3% growing economy). I assume he keeps beating it until it either turns into a horse or drops dead from too much beating!”

  17. andysingal says:

    Any chance we test 1525 before down 1470-1480, thnx

  18. rc1269 says:

    Hey TG

    I think the expectations around the ECB tomorrow are for generally a non-event actually. In the eyes of the ECB things have gotten materially better over there, all things considered. So not sure if they feel as concerned as you or the equity markets are, at least maybe not yet. The banks over there just paid off hundreds of billions in liquidity from the ECB, which they have been boasting as a sign of improvement. That said, I’d air on the dovish side if I was making a bet. I think they’re a ways from pulling back the easing, that’s for sure.

  19. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! If I have been reading you correctly you expect this Uptrend to end by the end of February at around 1550 (SPX) followed by a correction of about 5%.

      • mike7x says:

        Thanks again Tony! This market is trying to confuse everyone in the very short-term. But for me the important points are when this Uptrend ends and the next one (and last before the big bear attacks) begins. Glad you’re on top of it! 😉

      • mokiepon says:

        mike7x says: “This market is trying to confuse everyone in the very short-term.”

        And they’re doing a damned fine job of it too. LOL! M

      • mike7x says:

        Hahaha mokiepon! Based on these current waves the SPX doesn’t know whether it’s hi or low tide. I’ll just wait for SPX 1550 by the end of Feb. and hope the clowns in Congress don’t screw things up (again) with these mandatory (sequester) budget cuts scheduled for March 1.

  20. Thanks Tony, does this seem correct to you?
    AAPL seems to be starting the uptrend and in the middle of minute iii… seems that 480-503ish could be the next stop (after minute V is done)?

  21. M1 says:

    Thanks Tony.

  22. mokiepon says:

    Thanks Tony. Heaven knows you are incredibly patient with us all, esp. me. I have somewhat the same very elementary question as the others. With the 4b high at 1515, I’m assuming you expect 4c to still hit your target area of 1471-75? Please advise me if I’m incorrect, otherwise, I’ll assume your previous comments (as CB said) still stand. M

  23. Tom Green says:


    What is your outlook on the ECB doing anything tomorrow, given the weakness in the European markets.


  24. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony,
    Assuming that we are in Minor 4 with Minute a and b complete, are we more likely to end Minor 4 with Minute c or do you also expect Minute d and e? The pattern looks like an expanded flat and I would expect to see waves d and e.

  25. ruudboy99 says:

    Hello, so if that count is correct, are you able to say how far down below 1495 you’d expect Minute C to go?
    many thanks.

  26. CB says:

    Tony, thanks! Ur so patient with this market (na d with us). You could have just said: see my previous comments, folks :))

Comments are closed.