SHORT TERM: market reverses with gap up opening, DOW +99
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were much higher overnight. At 8:30 FED govenor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/0B9C77F2D3A64FEEBFDB8055E691E451.htm. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1502 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1496 yesterday. At 10:00 ISM services was reported lower: 55.2 vs 56.1. The rally continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit 1510. After a small two point pullback to SPX 1508 by noon, the rally resumed. Around 3:00 the SPX hit a new uptrend high at 1515, then pulled back to 1510, before closing at 1511.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.35%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude gained 55 cents, Gold closed flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support jumps back to the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow nothing scheduled on the economic/FED front.
The market opened today with a gap up, following monday’s gap down and friday’s gap up. A developing increasing volatility pattern underway? If we view the recent activity using the 1499 pivot as guide we observe the following. Last wednesday the SPX hits 1510, thursday it loses the pivot hitting 1497, friday it regains the pivot hitting 1514, monday it loses the pivot again hitting 1495, and today it regains the pivot hitting 1515. This may be some sort of Minor wave 4 expanding triangle underway, especially if the market heads right back down again tomorrow. Either a triangle, or Minor 3 is extending, or a B wave. Obviously a tricky short term juncture in this uptrend. For now we’ll keep the charts as posted and see how the market deals with this recent activity.
Short term support rises back up to the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum rebounded from yesterday’s oversold condition to overbought today. The short term OEW charts turned positive again at the open with the reversal level now around 1503. Choppy market, best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1515
LONG TERM: bull market
sold my SDS at $48, for a small 10cent/share loss. not liking the market which is not giving any clear signals on which way it wants to go (probably up!?), so i follow the old saying “when in doubt stay out!” minimized my loss, and not gambling when Draghi is on stage tomorrow morning…
Bambino! : )
sold UPRo for 3.50 profit
Tony, could last Wednesday, and Thursday have been a of minute 4, then Friday b of minute 4 and Monday c of minute 4 (making it an irregular flat; though the Fib’s are not perfect)? Then yesterday would have been 1 of minute 5, today 2 and possible 1 and 2 of 3 of minute 5?
This is my thesis but ya never know until ya know…
I hope both you guys are right, because if this is wave v and it tops out (this week); I’ll make some nice profits on the downside afterward. M
Soulsurf,
It is times like these that teach us how to read waves.
All possibilities are open, except a Minor 4 low.
i agree. choppy markets like these separates the men from the boys.
Hi Tony,
Do you expect S&P daily RSI to go below 30 during this minor 4 wave? TIA
indeed CTFP, even lower
there’s some heavy negative divergence now on the daily and hourly RSI (5), with the daily FSTO and MACD neither looking very strong. This would imply further downside…., but can the FED’s daily dose of newly printed money -as well as Draghi tomorrow- over come this? I mean negative divergence is negative divergence till it ain’t….
watch the 1502’s and add em back if we stay below
Thx H D
I dont trade 1000’s lots like HDT but if we go I’ll do 1/2 way decent
2 of C completed at 1508.75 ..its my story Im sticking to it til it sticks me back
78.6 % todays low yesterdays high = 1508.50 Pit trade aka cash session
we just retraced 78.6% from days high/low pit @ 1502.
I try to let my runners run and take scales along the way to lock in some profits I just did that on a few so hopefully that means some more downside
What lee said !
Thanks Lee. M
Thank you Olympia ;)
See what happens.. I’m a hack scalper
Lee, was wondering when someone would recognize the luggage reference. M.
M
I knew I had heard that but I had to Google it..
Keep em honest here I have to catch a free lunch..no mkt terminology Im talking an actual free lunch ;)
Lee: Good Gastronomy to you! M
Lee
Where do you think 5 of C completes?
T2T
T2T
Tom
I’m not sure right now..I’m not even sure I’m correct with todays action yet..
If by some miracle we take out the weeks low I’ll be sure to give my guess.
thanks Lee
torehund, are you out there? Haven’t heard from you today. Hope you’re well. M
Thanks M, i am fine.
HD
How about a little golf and fishing in Cabo and forget this mess?
Or at least a little Sonoran food on south 4th ave?
TG
Tony- when’s the last time equities rose during a recession?
In the US … 1953-54
cool, thanks. just entered my mind, since it’s my belief that if we do get sequestration we could post another quarter of negative GDP, which in turn would mean we are currently sitting in the midst of a recession. time will tell. thanks!
Many will be keeping an eye on GDP revisions going forward
Thanks Tony.
Given your tentative labeling, is the count 7 (subwaves) for a and 3 for b? Bill C
guess one could count it that way
Pciked up on that play action fake. No worries safety was in position. 10 point dip and 2-5 point rallies. I got u bots!
That’s a bunch of cryptic lingo for 3 waves back JIC u were wondering….
Tony, thank you for all you do on this site, very helpful. Q. Is there an EW rule for minimum % of retracement of previous impulse wave to validate the correction ?
Hi Gary,
In percentage terms no, in momentum generally.
Usually a market gets oversold during important pullbacks/corrections.
Sometimes option trades that are so large it appears someone has inside knowledge.
Maybe there is some market event around the corner. Last week a put spread appeared in the Vix, using the April 20 and 25 puts. 150,000 contracts were purchased for a net $75 per contract.
That’s is $11,250,000 bet that the VIX will move over 20 in the next 60 days.
You would have to be VERY confident in your outlook to risk $11 million on a directional position with the Vix at 5 yr lows and markets trying to breakout to new highs.
A lot of political deadlines approaching within that time frame.
TG
Thank you, T2T! That’s extremely valuable information. Holy Cow, that’s a big position on VIX! M
there was huge call buying as well in vix 100k or more contracts right before the spike down. That customers seems to be selling some off this week but still has at least 75k worth. A good spot to see this info – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIj9jX3ZwNs
allsquat, thank you! Very helpful video. M
T2T, I meant to add, I’m watching one of a couple of different scenarios presently in which VIX has another collapse, more like a ‘mini-collapse’ back to 11 or 12 before the hard downturn starts. This sort of collapse could occur with this constant sideways consolidation and would slam all the shorts. Unless one is very grounded, as you’ve said, they will suffer badly during the markets fall. M
Could also be some hedgies hedging…will be interesting to see.
VIX had pretty good decline yesterday and staying steady today. I’m watching it and related trade instruments like a hawk. M
Thanks TG. That’s interesting, isn’t it. Well, there is only one party that could be that confident and able to do it.
CB, I would watch that TL from last April. If it goes below and fails the retest (the throw over), you know you have got something!
thanks I3. I see both U and HD are now wearing dark clothes in ur avatars -so we’re ….alert :) have to run some errands..and today seems like a good day for it…would be nice to get some clarity eod ..later guys.
lol…I3, gee one change of avatar & U invalidated my entire sentence..hey, now I am not so alert anymore..in fact, .I am looking away… have to say triangles are good for running errands…this kind of market makes U work so hard for every penny..
just don’t be like me trying to pick up a nickle in front of the bulldozer.
I3,NO, seriously don’t even try to lean forward now!! …hey 3 points :) 1. that Borat guy is a (+:{“$%# &*+&^, OK? 2. the company policy says: no nudity & 3. can we get Roberto back, pls? : )
Wake me up when spx breaks below 1490… M
Or above 1523, either way works :)
Yep.
I am with 1523
that will make the wkly exciting.
Morn,
It’s ok it’s just a choppy market. I never talk about profits because they’re so shy.
How bout CL ?
Guess they’re making more today ;)
U dont have to be good at math to see ESH is @.50 on the week currently.
Guys I’ll be around and I’ll hollar if I see something
Same place I sold em yesterday 1505’s there’s ur fade
from monday after close comments, 2013/02/04, short term indicators/systems:
eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal, a red close on spx tuesday below 1495 will flip the signal into a SELL signal.
qqq indicator: +7, unchanged, remains on buy signal.
smart money indicator:ticked down to -10 from -9, remains on sell signal.
feb. monthly 2faced longs 0.62% loss today.
feb. monthly 2faced shorts 1.35% profit today.
daily longs posted a .50% gain today with ALIM posting 2.98%.
monthly and weekly models need more fine tuning and will be updated prior to posting new stocks.
spy -1.13%.
long term crash indicator remains at +4. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.
have eliminated inverse etfs from shorts to be truly short, faz, russ and tza eliminated from 2 faced shorts for february.
On Tuesday, February 5, 2013, the Philippines, EPHE, rose parabolically higher, in a three white flag candlestick pattern, confirming an end to Liberalism’s Age of Nation Investing.
The S&P 500, SPY, bounced 1.0% , largely on Transportation Shares, XTN; this after Monday’s sell off that gave the S&P 500 its biggest percentage decline since mid-November. The benchmark of large cap stocks now stands 3% up this month, and 6% up since the start of the year.
A bounce from strong resistance in the Apparel Retailers, MW, PLCE, RUE, ANN, GPS, ZUMZ, ARO, caused Retail, XRT, to 1.8% rise, presenting a great opportunity to go short the Retail ETF, as well as short Direxion’s 300% Retail ETF, RETL. A bounce higher in Oil, USO, took Natural Gas, UNG, higher, making for a good short selling opportunity, not only in this ETF, but also in Direxion’s 300% Natural Gas ETF, GASL, as in a bear market one sells in rallies, just as in a bull market one buys into dip. Short sell covering caused Eaton, ETN, Texas Instruments, TXN, Estee Lauder, EL, International Paper, IP, Automatic Data Processing, ADP, to rise strongly.
The Yen, FXY, continued lower, which caused Hedged Japan, DXJ, to continue to rally. How much further the Yen, FXY, will continue to go lower is anybody’s guess. The chart of Euro Yen Carry Trade, $XEU:$XJY, that is EUR/JPY, rose rose parabolically higher, as did the 200% short Yen ETF, YCS.
AP reports Ally returns to profit in 4Q as auto loans grow.
Tony, you are totally incorrect in believing that the S&P is in a bull market.
Peak Monetary and National Sovereignty has been achieved.
Liberalism’s sovereignty was based upon the national sovereignty of democratic states and the monetary authority of the world central banks. The bankers’ sovereignty, through credit, AGG, begat the seigniorage, that is the moneyness, of choice, producing fiat asset inflation, and prosperity for those with jobs as well as for those on government assistance, such as Social Security Disability.
Jean Pisani-Ferry, Director of Bruegel, the Brussels based economic policy think tank asks in Project Syndicate article Is the Euro crisis over? Reason to worry is that there is limited consensus in Europe on what, exactly, is needed to make the monetary union resilient and prosperous again. Banking union is a positive development, but there is no agreement on additional reforms, such as the creation of a common fiscal capacity or a common treasury. I comment that through the ECB’s LTRO1 and LTRO2, as well as the ECB’s OMT, were stopgap measures to prevent a dissolution of the EU, and provided shrew investors a carry trade bonanza. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis has been held in abeyance, but cannot be avoided. Insolvent sovereigns, and insolvent banks cannot provide seigniorage, that is moneyness.
A new sovereignty and a new seigniorage is coming, as the age of fiat asset inflation, pivots to the age of fiat asset deflation.
Authoritarianism’s sovereignty will be based upon regional framework agreements, which renounce national sovereignty, and appoint both regional monetary and fiscal popes to work in public private partnerships, to oversee regional economic production. These regional nannycrats, will impose the seigniorage of diktat, mandating debt servitude and austerity.
Jesus Christ is at the helm of the Economy of God, Ephesians, 1:10, pivoting the world from Liberalism’s Banker, Floating Currency, Free To Choose Investment, Democratic, Nation State, Regime … to Authoritarianism’s Beast, Competitive Currency Devaluation, Diktat, Totalitarian Collectivist, and Regional Governance Regime.
The great pivotal economic and political shift from Liberalism to Authoritarianism occurred on Monday January 4, 2013, as World Stocks, VT, traded lower as Sarah Jones of Bloomberg reports European Stocks Retreat Amid Political Turmoil in Spain, Italy.
Now the Beast Regime will rule in all of the world’s ten regions, and in all of mankind’s seven regions. Liberalism’s fiat money system will be replaced by Authoritarianism’s diktat money system, where diktat serves as currency, credit and power.
Ah, why did I feel that theyenguy will insert somewhere Jesus as authority. :)
How else would you justify these grandiose statements, than that God is on your side. Way to go! Too bad fake prophets are sometimes doing damage to true Christians of this world.
On the second thought, Tony this might be good indicator Minor 3 is actually extending here :)
Blubrd,
So far the orthodox high appeared on friday.
There could be a macro shift going on in commodities, helped by the fact that no one anylonger sees that it might be profitable to go hunting or refine these products. Its rocky and shaking right now, but that oftenmost signals a turn or another plunge.
Here’s an exercise for everyone:
1. Is your allocation to equities greater, the same as, or less than your historical average or norm?
2. Among the following asset classes, which do you expect to post the best return in 2013:
a. US equities
b. Foreign equities
c. Treasuries
d. Corporates
e. High Yield
f. Bank loans
g. Mortgages/CMBS
Once a quarter everyone at my shop (large mutli-asset manager) is asked these questions. Over the last many quarters, the answer to #1 has uninimously been “less than” or at the best “same as.” The bulk of people answer to #2 with either A or B. Now, the question is, if everyone here – investors in all different asset types – all think that equities will be the best performer this year (and last year), then why do we systematically maintain a below average equity allocation?
Most of the bearish commentators out there might also concede that objectively they believe that the forces in the market(s) will cause equities to be the best performer in 2013. They might also still be bearish, because for one reason or another they do not like (or trust) the *reasons* why equities will be the best performers.
As for the folks at my shop, we have called it pretty well the last few years and at the same time we are generally all OK with not totally maximizing our return. What does it mean when you feel quite confident what the best performing asset will be and yet don’t care to own it? I’ll let each of you come to your own conclusions from this phenomena, but I do think it’s an important concept to consider for the market we’re in.
rc- market going up here is too good to be true…and we dont trust it checking the status frequently, yes we are neurotic on top of some overwhelming depression..
if we have reaached max of this ambivalence through the years of market slaughter and stand-still, heck then its bullish like never before.
Just look how cheap commodities are for China to buy, has it been any cheaper..isnt it somewhat the bottom of deflation..
RC
You propose the ultimate conundrum. You are involved in an entity that is responsible for other people’s money. Had done that for many years, and one take away that always disturbed me, when reporting returns it was always relative to something. I learned the hard way when someone loses money or under performs the market, and the manager retorts something along the line, “well relative” to something you are all right. Most people on the other side get very upset and say its my money and its only relative to me.
That’s why I felt the model is broken, and went out on my own. The real goal is to create absolute returns, no matter what. I finally figured out there is enough intuition and skill set within oneself that the necessity to surround yourself with professionals was costly and unnecessary. Why have the best minds in hedge funds charge a management fee plus 20% and return only nominal returns. My question to your group within the questions you outlied, is simply, how can we as a group produce positive returns under any market circumstances, charge a fair fee, and focus on absolute returns. The power of compounding will reward you over time and more than offset incentive fees. The secret is how do I balance alpha with beta.
TG
good post
If you dont have balls to loose your own money, let someone else do the dirty work…LOL.
T2T: “…The real goal is to create absolute returns, no matter what. I finally figured out there is enough intuition and skill set within oneself that the necessity to surround yourself with professionals was costly and unnecessary. ”
YEAH BABY! Respect Yourself!
M
Good points made by all. I should have clarified something in my comments – the question about “what is your equity allocation” – it is actually what is each employees *personal* equity allocation. Not what is our allocation in equities for the client. This survey has nothing to do with what we do and are mandated to do with others’ money as a firm. I, for instance, help manage the corporate bond portfolio – even if I loved equities, in my professional capacity I would have an allocation of 0%. That’s not my job.
My comment was meant more as an assessment of collective psyche, rather than any commentary on the money management industry.
I happen to agree with most of the general criticisms of money managers. Most do not add the value that they charge you for. I don’t use one! My clients are just a few large corporations, so there is no mystery about what they want from us and what we’re able to provide.
Also, TG, I uunderstand your comments around absolute return, etc… though admittedly that philosophy doesn’t generically apply to all situations. For most individual investors I think that’s true. For institutional clients, the approach can be much different. Investment portfolios, especially for insurance companies (the largest investors on the planet), are not merely investments – they are a core part of operations. And so we must consider the impact throughout the client organization from the investments.
Everyone would like to be able to focus just on absolute returns. But with a $110 billion portfolio you can’t always be so nimble as to tactically trade every market whim. And, not only that, often you will be wrong.
Knowing that we have numerous limitations, coupled with our humble understanding that we won’t always be right, necessitates a different approach than just being able to seek positive absolute returns every day of the week. AIG is a perfect example of a firm using your approach, when they should not have.
While a trader myself .. I have deep respect for buy and hold dollar cost averaging S&P ETF as a strategy…especially if you are 35 or below ….and if you can build some simple rules to measure panics and increase allocation during those times you will really grow rich with peace of mind….the greatest risk mitigator is “time”…for someone with a 30 year view like an insurance company even 2008 will look like a blip 30 years from now..
while absolute returns have been the buzzword popularized by hedge funds to garner assets…. relative return is more important variable in long term equity investing….if someone nets me 1% more than the S&P every year for the next 30 years irrespective of medium term absolute return then he is providing me with an extremely valuable service for which I am willing to pay fat management fees…..on the other hand someone makes me positive absolute returns every year but at the end of 30 years i realise that he has underperformed a buy and hold strategy by 1% every year leaving me that much poorer i do not think i will be very happy….
good point … all is indeed relative
Hi TMI ! You’re right; at 35ish years old, buy and hold works. Good to see you. M
rc, I sort of agree with T2T; when you’re charged with handling money for others…Oye!
torehund, interesting that you mention deflation; China just might see some of that down the line in the form of ‘reduced growth'; notice I didn’t say recession or negative growth.
rc, through some unfortunate circumstances at the time, I was in cash when 2008-09 occurred. When Feb./March 09 came around, people were so bearish and so broken that I just shoved all the cash I had left into stocks; 100%, all in. Rode it up for a while and have jumped out and in ever since. I realize this isn’t typical of most people, but neither am I.
M
one only have to do bad dispositions at the right time. Thats timing.
Great points,s guys – as financial pros you can offer us a very unique and top-notch perspective, so thank you all for that!
RC, more specifically to your question:” What does it mean when you feel quite confident what the best performing asset will be and yet don’t care to own it?” Well seriously, could it be that we always have this “the grass is always greener on the other side..” feeling meaning that we will always overvalue things & situations that are not ours, and tend to undervalue what we already have/own. For instance, how many people like to talk about owning (or now, shorting) Apple & how many try to imagine how much money they could be making from Apple without even having any position in it. It’s almost like a national pastime. It’s amazing how many other stocks beat Apple as a money-making oppty. and yet there seems to be some sort of a fascination with it…why? Many people like to dream, and few people act on their ideas and only the latter get an accurate assessment of what kind or real potential those ideas have.
typo, sorry: “what kind of real potential those ideas have”…rather
Philosophers All tonight! Good for the soul to talk it out sometimes. M
secular bear cycle
Most money managers are all heroes in a bull market. They never know what a bear market looks like. Only hide behind phrases that mimic things look cheap and keep buying you will be rewarded. What happens if you run out of money?
TG
T2T, are you saying that Mgrs. don’t know that this is a Secular Bear, or that they don’t care and just continue to encourage people to put their money into markets? If a working schlep like me can figure out that this is a Sec. Bear, then, I guess it makes Mgrs. crooks? M
Okay, nevermind. I wasn’t pointing my finger at anyone. Just trying to get clarification. G’nite Folks! M
Michael Gayed calling for a correction now. His intermarket analysis is prescient. Hedging likely advised short term…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/copper-miners-to-nouveaux-bulls-risk-off-2013-02-04
On that copper graph I see a large ABC down(from top) where the last part of the C is bent upwards, hence a large motivated wave should soon commence.
The C could not finish as a complete descending wave.
So the universal plan was maybe to make a large ABC, then we humans ( the matrix) found out that ditching copper that far would make it excessively costly in the future, as production/ramp up of lesser productive mines would be shut/canceled.
Little like with ethanol, its getting so cheap that it doesnt make sense to produce a lot of it, just make some and sweat it out. lol, just thoughts..
“Well, which is it young feller? You want I should freeze or get down on the ground? I mean to say, Iffen I freeze I can’t rightly drop and iffen I drop I’m gonna be in motion. You see….”
Ambivalence expanding makes volatility expand until a resolution..Thats also what chart tells us for teh last couple of days.
Lee, you’re such a mess, son! You know I love ya more than my luggage…
torehund, I’m hoping you’re right about the expanding volatility.
M
Abigail Doolittle beat Gayed to the punch over a month ago. Go Abby! M
Then she missed a huge month of gains in equities.
When was that? She was bullish as hell on Jan. It’s Feb. that she’s wary of. M
If she beat Gayed “to the punch” in calling a correction over a month ago then she missed the January rally expecting a correction…
tboys, whatever you say. M
http://peterlbrandt.com/the-e-u-transaction-tax-if-brought-to-the-u-s-would-mean-the-end-of-futures-trading-as-we-know-it/
Thanks Lee. That’s ugly. I wonder how likely it is that the Dems will have the votes for that & and how much it would cost for stock/etf transactions.
Agree, CB. Truly ugly. I don’t think there will be enough Dems to go for it. M
Tony, I would love to know what you think about AAPL… I am thinking of going long (options)… I know you think it could be wave 4 down…
Any posts, links?
Thanks!
tough call Sirrobbie
We always have to reach the point of mentaly giving up, before nature wants us, otherwise we are too uptightly trying, and not ready for the big leap…Just like in 2000, going into the next century and expecting things to be even better.
Its the same pattern in our individual lives, we learn in downturns and reap in upturns.
And thats whats so great about surfing its a microcosmos of all tehse processes.
Its when you write yourself off as a surfer you get your first wave, adversity makes you think, if I CAN NEVER SURF, then I will just let the wave take me…. And it does ! All the struggle you put in getting demoralises and washed in whitewater was the learning, and when you give up its a sign you are ready !
Difficult struggle where bears are getting more numerous whilst market is reluctant to sell off any shares. Like the nodes on the wood difficult to tell where the next branch will sprout…
torehund, the rise in bearishness, which is slight, could have an effect, but I think our politicians will cause a lot of volatility in this market re: Sequestration on March 1. Short version: It’s going to be a mess. M
M- think we have discounted in that already. I feel market is very, very bearish, sure could feel even worse but..Also in here I feel its bearish right now. And we are all conservative in a sense that we resist change, even if it is for the better. Thats why we often fight, even a rising market. But this is another threshold to pass.
M-no one is dancing even at bull time highs, thats telling.
torehund, I respect your opinion, but in this case, I see the opposite end of the spectrum. I think bullishness is still very high. People might preface their statement with something such as, “We are cautious”, but when they complete the statement, it’s clear they’re still bullish. It’s always possible these sorts are fully invested and looking for others to help push up prices. M
Also, I do not believe this market has discounted Sequestration at all. No way, no how! M
Also remember we need bulls in a bull market. Just because net bullish sentiment had once caused selling doesn’t mean we’ll see the same reaction now. Toward the top of the bull we may see sentiment at 90% bullish.
tboys, I agree. We need Bulls! M
Melinda just a thought here,looking for 1524-31 to top out this week, 7 & 8 are very bullish astro days + new moon high on the 10th.Next week has bearish astro implications so i am looking for that 3-4% correction.After that happens i believe we go to 1550-76 around end of month then we should see a 7-10% correction
pooch, I leave the planets to you. I think we have 5, maybe 8 more SPX points up to go before 1471-75ish. M
looks like we are only 3-4 points away on the low side
Pooch, could be. M
Thanks Tony. Just holding positions I have. M
M-I just tell what I feel now, not what I think. But it could be different since i sit in stocks that has gone down a lot for no obvious reasons, lol. It would be different if my stocks had been everyones darling year after year.
torehund, I fully understand. What you said that I find very interesting is that you sense members here on the blog to be bearish. I can tell you that in the immediate term, given Tony’s charting, we’re all expecting somewhat of a downtrend, however, temporary. Personally, am looking forward to wave v up to increase my longs and am not ‘bearish’ in the greatest sense. Also looking forward to Q3 & Q4 which will be another upward wave (if Tony’s timeframe holds), to start selling into the last of the big waves up.
I think lots of people went short today (including me) and are getting squeezed and are very uncomfortable. I’m not uncomfortable, yet, but another day like today could do it for me. M
If you scan the blogs and non ‘professional’ sites you find them almost universally bearish. “bearish” in the sense that nobody is really believing we can have a big bull right here…”bearish” in the sense that we may head a bit higher but ultimately we’re going DOWN -WAY down over the longer term. 2008-09 is WELL ingrained in everybody’s memory and will not be shaken easily or over just a few year period. In the heart of hearts of these sites, they ( we) “know” we have to go much lower and that stocks are way overvalued here…
tboys, the bearish future you speak of will be broken up with bullish pops. Money on the downside and upside. As for the consensus of the various blogs you visit, I say, okay, if you say so. I’m bearish or bullish, according to whichever side will make me money. I try to keep my emotions in check on days like this (unexpected pop when I’m short) My intentions and expectations are in a post below:
“I can tell you that in the immediate term, given Tony’s charting, we’re all expecting somewhat of a downtrend, however, temporary. Personally, I’m looking forward to wave v up to increase my longs and am not ‘bearish’ in the greatest sense. Also looking forward to Q3 & Q4 which will be another upward wave (if Tony’s timeframe holds), to start selling into the last of the big waves up.”
M
No, not only that Melinda, I feel bearish myself too…and then the bearishness i feel in there amplifies it.
torehund, I accept you as you are and the way that you say you feel. M
Thanks Tony. Whats the chance this is minor 5 starting?
Thanks Tony. To make things more exciting -tomorrow looks like a day lacking any econ, data … Is anything expected tomorriw from our politicians, anyone? thanks. have agreat evening everyone!
Bye CB. You already know what to expect from our politicians. LOL! M
a box of chocolates, maybe? :)
CB, if it’s dark chocolate, IT’S MINE! M
yeah, dark chocolate is great…Hey M, how about sharing it a little bit, though? :)
Sure thing. Share. 1 for you, and 2 for me, and 1 for you, and 3 for me… What’s the count now? M
LOL..Oh, I see, M. I think it’s called “give-and-take.” Funny how it actually works w/people who are opposites. I think it’s fun to give people what they need as long as they don’t take anything for granted so let’s say the count is: negotiable :)
CB, Life = Negotiation
M
Melinda, a part of it is. One key thing that’s so unique about Tony’s approach is : we’ve all been learning from him & from one another that givers just basically have more fun in life (with spirituality & knowledge being important areas where we can practice that ).
Certainly, if/when giving &taking somehow gets out of balance, then there is a need to strictly negotiate our personal boundaries b’cuz folks who tend to just give, give, give, shouldn’t feel used, right? Fortunately, it doesn’t happen too often b’cuz most of the time people will treat one another as equals. And while “extreme givers & takers” do exist, they too will sometimes find balance & get along nicely with their opposites. So it’s a matter of really knowing ourselves that helps us prevent ‘accidents.’
Tony’s place is unlike the rest of the world & we need to always remember that it represents a whole new way of thinking; focusing on giving, instead of focusing on the rat-race & constant negotiations (to keep up with the Kardashians, presumably). It’s important to think about that.
Thanks CB,
The purpose of the corporate world is to keep us entertained and distracted.
To instill fear and promote a me first attitude, which keeps us in the red-orange-yellow chakra triangle.
When one casts that all aside, and starts thinking in terms of self and other selves as family.
As one species, as one collective mind, (which is what we track with OEW), they open the green ray chakra.
This leads to the blue-indigo-violet ray triangle: where one can connect with their Higher Self.
This is where we are all heading, as a species, as a planet.
namaste
CB, I agree… Except when it’s about dark chocolate. MINE! LOL! M
thanks for your thoughts Tony. Very interesting. It’s good to pause from time to time & get our priorities straight.
M, LOL..I’ve juts checked…we’re all still (chocolate) equals. No exceptions ;)
Tony, I sure hope you’re right. Mankind has, what seems, a hard-wired capacity for destruction. In the centuries gone by, the destruction was mostly confined to particular areas of the globe; not so now, all the world is ripe for “The Madmen to come again” (from song by Peter, Paul & Mary). M
Animal instincts … survival of the fittest
We are evolving beyond that now
nada
thanks Tony! Looks . Seems like there are always some dealines I have no idea about. That stuff( you know Greece, Portugal, Merkel, and now the U.S,..) just comes out of the blue and it’s so hard to keep up with.
CB, I think there will always be Swans that will do fly-overs and drop poop on foreheads. Use baby wipes. M
large POMO
thanks Perceval. I guess it’s already showing up in the futures now :)