tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +72

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed and closed flat. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher/lower overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.5% vs +4.3%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1500 close, but then rallied back to the uptrend high at 1503 by 10:00. At 10:00 Consumer confidence, a lagging indicator to consumer sentiment, was reported lower: 58.6 vs 65.1. The market then quickly pulled back to the low of the day at SPX 1498, and then began to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1509, then ended the day at 1508.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold gained $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, Q4 GDP (est. +1.0%) at 8:30, then the FOMC statement at 2:15. Should be quite a volatile day.

The market opened about flat today, rallied to SPX 1503, then pulled back to 1498. Holding the SPX 1496 wave support level, the market was set for a move higher. And it made new bull market highs. The suggested short term count worked out well, but we are in another subdividing wave. After Minute wave iv bottomed at SPX 1491 the market became quite choppy for a couple of days. We counted, however: a Micro wave 1 to SPX 1502, an irregular flat Micro wave 2 to SPX 1496, and a Micro 3 now subdividing into Nano waves: 1503-1498-1509 so far. We should see, in the coming days, five Nano waves up to complete Micro 3, a small pullback for Micro 4, then another rally into the OEW 1523 pivot range to complete Micro 5/Minute v/Minor 3. After that, the largest pullback since the end of December should follow.

Short term support is at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum rallied to quite overbought during today’s rise. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1420, with the swing level now 1494. Best to your trading on potentially volatile FED day!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1509

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp