SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -14
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but ended the day mixed. US index futures were mixed overnight as well, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +4.6% vs +0.8%. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1503 and then began to pullback. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -4.3% vs +1.7%. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1496. After that the market rallied back to SPX 1503 by 12:00, pulled back to 1499 by 1:30, and then tried to rally again. At 2:00 the FED: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20130128a.htm. At 3:00 the SPX again hit 1503, then pulled back to close at 1500.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude gained 60 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the OEW 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting, and we have Case-Shiller at 9:00 followed by Consumer confidence at 10:00.
The market opened unchanged today at SPX 1503. It pulled back to SPX 1496 by 10:30, then spent the rest of the day in that trading range. While the action was choppy we do see a potential pattern. From thursday’s SPX 1491 Minute wave iv low, we can count a Micro 1 to 1502 on friday, then an irregular Micro 2 into today’s 1496 low. Micro wave 3 of Minute v should be currently underway from this low. Should the market drop below SPX 1496, then all of the price activity from the orthodox SPX 1495 Minute iii high, could be a Minute iv triangle which should end on a retest around 1490. Tomorrow will likely determine which is the working count.
Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum hovered around neutral for most of the day. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1490. Best to your trading this FED week.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market