monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -14

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but ended the day mixed. US index futures were mixed overnight as well, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +4.6% vs +0.8%. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1503 and then began to pullback. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -4.3% vs +1.7%. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1496. After that the market rallied back to SPX 1503 by 12:00, pulled back to 1499 by 1:30, and then tried to rally again. At 2:00 the FED: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20130128a.htm. At 3:00 the SPX again hit 1503, then pulled back to close at 1500.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude gained 60 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the OEW 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting, and we have Case-Shiller at 9:00 followed by Consumer confidence at 10:00.

The market opened unchanged today at SPX 1503. It pulled back to SPX 1496 by 10:30, then spent the rest of the day in that trading range. While the action was choppy we do see a potential pattern. From thursday’s SPX 1491 Minute wave iv low, we can count a Micro 1 to 1502 on friday, then an irregular Micro 2 into today’s 1496 low. Micro wave 3 of Minute v should be currently underway from this low. Should the market drop below SPX 1496, then all of the price activity from the orthodox SPX 1495 Minute iii high, could be a Minute iv triangle which should end on a retest around 1490. Tomorrow will likely determine which is the working count.

Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum hovered around neutral for most of the day. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1490. Best to your trading this FED week.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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108 Responses to monday update

  1. torehund says:

    TAN-Solar ETF, completed 2 waves from bottom ? Big 3rd on its way ?

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  2. torehund says:

    M-are you ready for a retest of 74 sugar high !

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    • mokiepon says:

      No, I don’t have a position on sugar. Not going to India for it.

      M

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      • torehund says:

        M- still only exposed indirectly through bulk/ tank and ethanol. But If something pops (like CYCC) and sugar is still cheap, I may have to get access to the Bombay market.

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      • mokiepon says:

        I have CYCC and it’s popped a lot lately. How are you playing ethanol? PEIX not for sale, so what are you doing?

        Best to you in your quest for the great sugar high!

        M

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    • mokiepon says:

      Hope your sugar high is a great trip and lasts a long time, torehund. Wish I could take it with you, but can’t do it this round. Ah well, there will be others.
      M

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      • jamhas26 says:

        Hi, I don’t understand why you both don’t trade the sugar futures directly?

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      • mokiepon says:

        Jam, you got the address, I’ll surely go take a look at it. Much thanks!
        M

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      • jamhas26 says:

        Hi mokie,
        Well I reside in Australia and trade through a CFD provider called IG Markets. On this platform you can trade futures any of the metals, energies or commodities. However on just about every other platform I’ve used (GFT, Plus500, HYMarkets, etc) this is the case too. Are you not able to do this in the US?

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      • torehund says:

        M-I have learned that the less I do the better it gets, running for short patterns on small-caps, one is oftenmost whipped out by the boots. So I will mostly just sit on my shares until May. If I get 4-5 baggers inbetween, I will grab them.

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  3. conannca says:

    Hi Tony
    Just checking in and noticed you slapped a green 4 and -38% on Apple chart. I assume you are calling a high probability of bottom of C of 4 after gap close at $425 area? If so, then wave 5 has started and according to your chart we would be heading to all time new highs at end of 2013 ie: your fib targets of $700/710, $815/825, $890/900?
    Thanks Tony for your reply

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  4. bolderbob says:

    Hi Tony,
    Thanks again for your wonderful blog!
    AMZN still looks like it has upside work to do to me. It has been selling off before earnings. Where are we in the pattern from your perspective?

    Thanks!

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  5. rc1269 says:

    9.92pts LOD->HOD. good enough for governbot work

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  6. leelee64 says:

    See ya’s at the pivot. I’m going surfing on Lake Michigan !

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  7. H D says:

    is that a 10 point rally in SPX? some dumb $ hitting 1503’s

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