friday update

SHORT TERM: marginal new high, DOW +71

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%: mostly Japan. Europe opened lower but gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1499. The SPX had closed at 1495 yesterday. After a brief rally to SPX 1502, the uptrend high, by 10:00, the market started to pullback. Also at 10:00 New home sales were reported lower: 369K vs 377K. The pullback continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 1496. Then it tried to rally again. Around 2:30 the SPX hit a new uptrend high at 1503. Then a pullback to SPX 1499 in the final hour of trading was followed with a bounce to the uptrend here, where the market closed.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 25 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold lost $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support jumps to the OEW 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Last night the FED reported a new high in the Monetary base: $2.762 tln vs $2.711 tln. Today the WLEI was reported higher as well: 57.1% vs 56.1%.

The market opened higher today, continuing yesterday’s late afternoon rally. After retouching the uptrend high at SPX 1502 it then pulled back to 1496. We then labeled a ‘tentative’ green Minute wave iv low at yesterday’s SPX 1491 low. For the rest of the day the market worked its way higher to a new uptrend high. At that point we updated that label to its appropriate dark green. Yesterday’s 11 point pullback, SPX 1502-1491, was over 10 points and apparently enough to satisfy a Minute wave iv low. Currently it looks like Minute wave v is underway with: Micro 1 ending SPX 1502, Micro 2 ending at SPX 1496, and Micro 3 underway. When Minute wave v concludes, probably within the OEW 1523 range, it will also conclude Minor wave 3. Then a more substantial Minor wave 4 pullback should follow.

Short term support jumps to the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum is rising again, and slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1487. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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33 Responses to friday update

  1. Click Here for Intraday Tips on Indian Stock Market

  2. capi25 says:

    Tony I’m just a beginner technnicien and I’M really loss in all these turnover could you explain me the reason about this mess and what’s y does it mean

    • tony caldaro says:

      Welcome Capi,
      Not exactly sure what you mean by turnover.
      The market has been quite choppy for weeks, many gap up/down openings.
      Since the uptrend is now five months old, Nov12-Apr13, it might be best to just let it finish.
      Then wait for the correction which will follow.

  3. mokiepon says:

    torehund, scroll down to see my post re: surfing and Ken Bradshaw!


    • torehund says:

      M-Texas is known for tanker surfing, amazing(look u-tube)..and has lots of wind for kite and windsurf. And one doesnt need huge waves to surf, plus getting paddeling fit takes a long time. And its good exercise, plus skills attained can benefit in other areas as well.
      But like in investing one have to chew lots of pebbles and tin-foil before any results emerge…but without adversity, no new growth, lol.
      PS- Ken is an expert, amazing what the best surfers can endure.
      Good weekend to all !

      • mokiepon says:

        True, there is good surf just south of here, Pt. Isabel. Otherwise, the hurricanes and tropical storms ‘rearranged’ things. Have a great weekend.


  4. mokiepon says:

    Tony, thanks once again for your great Update. More so for your patience with me. I’m learning something new every day here and will try to consolidate my posts so others don’t have to scroll so much. It’s difficult because they might contain several different subjects, but I’ll give it a whirl. Thanks very much again.


  5. tfinavia says:

    For a “more substantial Minor wave 4 pullback” any range of spx points associated with?

  6. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony; I’d great apprecaite a more detailed update on gold, oil, and commodities – especially gold. I find the OEW charts currently tough to project foward possibilities – thanks, Greg

    • CB says:

      nice chart, thanks i3 & thanks Tony.

    • torehund says:

      Cant complain nowadays !

    • CB says:

      haha. Tore U mean Peru is doing better now than Ecuador, Bolivia & Venezuela?

      • torehund says:

        CB: Peru has great surf, but the ETF should do fine too, a boom in Peru is a possibility due to rare eart metal abundance and cheap labor.. Also some softs like rice and corn. Dont know much about Bolivia and Ecuador. Planning for Oxaca Mexico, just for surfing.

      • CB says:

        Interesting, thanks Tore. I’ve heard that the Peruvian boom is really something – many young Bohemian types from both Europe & the US have moved down here to a large degree ’cause of high real estate costs & are now enjoying a very nice lifestyle with ocean-front properties, world-class cuisine etc. and getting the biggest bang for their buck. Just the place to be now for the more adventurous people, it seems. So lucky you, ur in the middle of it! I visited Peru well before the boom,..great views & we went to the Gold Museum & got us some really good music records (Andean music). .. Really cool music! GL to you. Tore!

      • CB says:

        moved down there..that is..

      • mokiepon says:

        torehund, OMG, you surf?! Does the name Ken Bradshaw ring a bell? He lived very near me here on TX coast years ago and learned to surf on these puny sorry excuses for wave we have here.


  7. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony !
    Low j-clames and rising WLEI, perfect. Look at rut !

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