SHORT TERM: new marginal uptrend high, DOW +67
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7% – mostly Japan. European markets opened higher, but ended mixed. US index futures were mostly higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1495 – two points above yesterday’s 1493 close. After bouncing around for a few minutes the market pulled back SPX 1490 by 11:00. At 10:00 FHFA housing prices were reported higher: +0.6% vs +0.5%. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 1496 at 3:00, and then dipped to 1495 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude dropped $1.05, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Leading indicators at 10:00.
The market opened higher today, hit SPX 1495, pulled back to 1490, then hit 1496 just before the close. On the pullback we posted a tentative green Minute wave iii label at SPX 1495. Minute wave iii had accomplished the minimum expected: a new uptrend high, hitting the OEW 1499 pivot range, and both with a negative short term divergence. With this afternoon’s rally to SPX 1496 we see two possibilites: 1. Micro 5/Minute iii is extending higher, or 2. this last rally was a B wave of an irregular Minute wave iv pullback. The market has set the parameters: a rally beyond SPX 1496 – an extension; or a drop below SPX 1490 a continuation of the pullback. Either way we should see a 10+ point pullback in the next few days.
Short term support remains at SPX 1471/75 and 1462/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1479. One last note, the SPX has not traded this high since 2007. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1496
LONG TERM: bull market