wednesday update

SHORT TERM: new marginal uptrend high, DOW +67

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7% – mostly Japan. European markets opened higher, but ended mixed. US index futures were mostly higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1495 – two points above yesterday’s 1493 close. After bouncing around for a few minutes the market pulled back SPX 1490 by 11:00. At 10:00 FHFA housing prices were reported higher: +0.6% vs +0.5%. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 1496 at 3:00, and then dipped to 1495 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude dropped $1.05, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Leading indicators at 10:00.

The market opened higher today, hit SPX 1495, pulled back to 1490, then hit 1496 just before the close. On the pullback we posted a tentative green Minute wave iii label at SPX 1495. Minute wave iii had accomplished the minimum expected: a new uptrend high, hitting the OEW 1499 pivot range, and both with a negative short term divergence. With this afternoon’s rally to SPX 1496 we see two possibilites: 1. Micro 5/Minute iii is extending higher, or 2. this last rally was a B wave of an irregular Minute wave iv pullback. The market has set the parameters: a rally beyond SPX 1496 – an extension; or a drop below SPX 1490 a continuation of the pullback. Either way we should see a 10+ point pullback in the next few days.

Short term support remains at SPX 1471/75 and 1462/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1479. One last note, the SPX has not traded this high since 2007. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1496

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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163 Responses to wednesday update

  1. mokiepon says:

    torehund, your CYCC did great today! My congrats to you!


  2. H D says:

    90.50’s .382 back

  3. Lee says:

    S1 @ 1486.25 ESH
    S2 @ 1482 go figure..
    PP @ 1489

    Ur beefs ready TEB

  4. H D says:

    did buyers come in b4 10 point dip, perhaps on TL? This wave is of importance. I could see a 3-3-3-3-3 from 1075. HD rulez would require a complete retrace 1/2 time. Stick to the plan 5 points at a time.

  5. ronini3 says:

    too bad 6E doesn’t cave in easily as those Aussies.

  6. ronini3 says:

    No lyrics, since the gun control is being hotly debated.

    Third Eye Blind – Slow motion [instrumental]

  7. Lee says:

    This is THE best blog ever
    U guys put up with me and so much other stuff and the host is the most interesting man in the world with a great sense of humor.

    Cheers to all of u ..young and not so young

  8. torehund says:

    This rally is all about sector shift and retracement of the ultracheap dogs. Some stocks are even down since the bottom in 2002. Some stocks have been compressed into nothing with rediculous market caps to uphold the confined space of the RUT index. Market is compressed, and not even the leaders (like apples decline) can anylonger confine all companies to be valued below 1558 for much longer. Go dumpster diving and thorns may soon turn out to be the stalk of a rose.

  9. mokiepon says:

    Hey Goldbugs! Take a look at these charts! Hope Tony won’t mind…


  10. Lee says:

    CL cheap swing short against yesterdays high is here..R1 @ 96.66
    it makes u earn it thats fo sho

    • Lee says:

      sorry for the late post in CL . I personally try to never risk more than 50 cents as it makes me much more selective and keeps me from rowing down that river in Egypt.
      I was thinking the move down yesterday looked impulsive then it popped 80% and then it felt repulsive but I sold it

  11. Lee says:

    anybody thinking about hedging their longs yet ?

  12. pbnj123 says:

    Divergence is most pronounced today on DOW 60 minute chart – just saying.

  13. H D says:

    excuse # 4; 1343-1448, 1398-1503 just saying

  14. tommyboys says:

    US on the verge of an “explosion of greatness” – Tepper…

  15. mokiepon says:

    Does anyone see a rotation out of bonds and into stocks? I can’t tell or believe these media folk on CNBC or BB.


    • rc1269 says:

      if so, it’s pretty mild. 10yr treasury rates are still lower over the last month, despite the equity rally. credit doesn’t seem to be exhibitiing any indicators of rotation away. i can’t speak for guys who own MBS or ABS as i don’t traffic in those bonds. if anything maybe we could be seeing some coupon interest be reinvested into stocks rather than back into bonds.
      when you have tens of billions of CB liquidity pumped into the system every month it’s hard to really track the flows, since it’s not a zero-sum game at that point

  16. ronini3 says:

    when gravity grabs the hold of 6E, we will see a minimum of 1.313. 1.2951 is a bit far from here. Last @ 1.3362.
    Void if 6E>1.3413.

  17. Lee says:

    Still pivot time still neg div

    I learned a new word here today Japanification

  18. blubrd67 says:

    so neg. divergence is already out?

  19. rc1269 says:

    AAPL – providing about $60bn of new money that’s going into every other stock. the great AAPL -> industrial rotation

  20. H D says:

    effortless 10 point rally SPX,

  21. rc1269 says:

    intraday pattern seems to have changed today. immediate burst at the open, rather than the usual decline for 30-60 mins. change in pattern = time for wave change? i guess we’ll see how the rest of the day goes

    • tony caldaro says:

      Did we get a buy program at the open?
      Cash was at a discount.
      The open should have been at 1492, but I see a 1489 print.

    • Hi RC,
      Good catch.
      I noticed this patter in the past and today when the initial push during cash trading was higher I was looking for the reversal but I have to admit they extended it so much at the open that I had lost confidence it could happen… I have learned that even when you are right the market is always capable to surprise you.

  22. H D says:

    GM all, ZW HWB w potential cupnhandle pattern.

  23. theyenguy says:

    The Japanification of the Global Economy is underway. The Age of Deflation commenced on the exhaustion of the US Fed’s QE4, the ECB’s LTROs and OMT, and the BoJ’s, Unlimited Easing, as World Shares, VT, traded lower on January 23, 2012.

    Debt deflation, has finally commenced as the Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, turned lower on January 17, 2014, while the US Dollar, $USD, UUP, traded higher beginning December 14, 2012. The Milton Friedman Free to Choose Floating Currency Regime has failed. Competitive Currency Devaluation is underway.

    The World Central Banks’ monetary policies have turned toxic, causing investors to derisk and deleverage out of fiat investments.

    Liberalism’s Banker, Free to Choose Floating Currency, Credit, and National Regime will be replaced by Authoritarianism’s Beast, Diktat, Totalitarian Collectivism, and Regionalism Regime.

    Investment schemes by Asset Managers such as BlackRock, BLK, and State Street, STT, which supported foreign investing, are now part of the bygone era of prosperity, as the dynamos of corporate profitability and global growth are winding down.

    The chart of the S&P, SPY, shows a 0.16% rise for the day, and what may turn out to be an evening star candlestick, denoting a grand finale completion of an Elliott Wave 5 High, which took Large Cap Growth Shares, JKE, up 0.64%, near to its September 14, 2012, high. The currency carry trade Small Cap Pure Value Shares, RZV, traded unchanged, suggesting an end to their rally which began in June 2012, which commenced on the anticipation of the ECB’s OMT.

    Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, traded strongly lower, documenting an end to the six month long World Central Banks’ global debt based currency carry trade rally. Liberalism’s final risk on rally was based upon confidence and trust in the most toxic of debt, specifically the Distressed Investments taken in by the US Fed under QE1, FAGIX, Junk Bonds, JNK, Senior Bank Loans, BKLN, all of which traded lower on January 23, 2012. It was Distressed Investments, FAGIX, that underwrote and leveraged the Vice Stocks, VICEX, to a 35% gain over the last two years.

    The ability of stocks to leverage up over debt is history. The Age of Leverage has ended, and the Age of Deleveraging has commenced, which can be followed in the combined chart of Closed End Stocks, CSQ, trading ever lower, over Closed End Debt, PFL.

    We are no longer in a zero bound investment world. The World Central Banks’ ZIRP Regime is now beginning to fail as the 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, has been steepening since early December 2012, and is now trading at 0.606. A Steepening Yield Curve, seen in the Steepner ETF, STPP, steepening, means an end to risk free investing. Both International Treasury Bonds, BWX, and Inflation Protected Bonds, TIP, have been fallen lower in value since early December, as bond vigilantes have been calling interest rates higher globally.

    An inquiring mind asks, will money market funds, which have traditionally maintained a constant $1.00 dollar value, fail to do so, and start to produce negative returns, oncee interest rates on the 10 Year Interest Rate, ^TNX, rise above 2.0%, and all interest bearing investments, seen in this Finviz Screener, turn lower in value on alarm that the world central banks monetary authority, has not only failed to sustain global growth and corporate profitability, but because of debt deflation, has turned “money good” assets bad.

  24. short term elliott PSTT still on buy signal.
    smart money still at -9., still on cash signal.
    qqq system has ticked down from +7 to +4, still on buy signal.
    long term crash signal at +6, down from +8, no crash in sight.
    2 faced longs +.0.12% profit, 2 faced shorts 0.48% loss today, spy + 0.16%.

    buying tza on thursday at 11.42, a 20% allocation

  25. Tony, what would be argument against considering spx rally starting 10.04.2011 (1074.77) to be completed on 14.09.2012 (Clearly visible 5 waves on weekly chart have ended at 1465.63). If this is technically acceptable spx is then currently going through correction in shape of possibly expanded flat. View from 30000 ft (weekly charts) show current rally (B wave) as a clear zig zag.



    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Goran,

      The SPX five waves from 1075-1475? Acceptable, but all are overlapping.
      But the DOW did seven waves during that period, no overlaps, and is currently in its 9th wave up from that low.
      Since the DOW is the bellwether, it offers the best count.


  26. Tom Green says:

    Time to go and do a little Scuba Diving. Waves iii- iv- v look a little choppy from up here. Will try to get a smoothing perspective by observing them from below . Went short a little about two points below the high. When I come up for a decompression perhaps iv will be done and can get long.

    Lee, Saugatuck has a reputation, be assured my girl friend(my wife) doesn’t look like my boy friend. Perhaps my BOT friend.

    HD, don’t confuse your divots with your pivots. Hopefully someday you will shoot your age. I just missed it by one stroke. Went Havalina hunting many times, not because I needed to eat, but just to keep the poop of the driveway.

    M, don’t know what to say, your young with a responsibility, perhaps after the next M retires from James Bond they will have a spot for you.


    • Lee says:

      Hey T2T

      Pure Michigan my friend..Not that there’s anything wrong with that ,

      I will stay and trade this market like a warrior poet.
      Volatility has awoken

    • tommyboys says:

      LOL wasn’t gonna say anything yesterday about Saugatuck but it was a stop on my honeymoon years ago and I got an interesting awakening! I think I’d prefer to stay in Holland or South Haven as a Michigan native – unless you’re headed further north of course.

    • mokiepon says:

      “M, don’t know what to say, your young with a responsibility, perhaps after the next M retires from James Bond they will have a spot for you.” – T2T

      That works for me! I love all those gadgets, not to mention the cars! Have fun under the sea!


  27. tommyboys says:

    Like the points made here by Santoli referencing market “milestones”…

  28. budfox9450 says:

    AAPL, in my work is now on a Buy signal…Ging to be interesting to see how
    traders work this swing up into there NDX calculations…

  29. mokiepon says:

    Take a look at the short gold ETF’s. Big moves here. dzz & gll


  30. mokiepon says:

    Yikes! Look at NASDAQ futures! Very nasty.

    • Lee says:

      power of the pivot M

      Ok guys thats all I got really no more posts I’ll be late for my Capoeira class.

    • torehund says:

      Hello Melinda, congrats with VLCCF ! Could be a once in a lifetime opportunity.
      For bulk, I own Euroseas, not to much debt leveraged and pays dividend at descent market conditions. Esea has mcap of just 40 mill and has a 14 percent stake in Costamare ( mcap 1 bill usd ). At 1 buck ESEA could or should be a scoop !

    • semievolved says:

      i think that drop in the futures is almost all AAPL’s doing, “disappointing” results.

  31. CB says:

    AAPL is @ its monthly TL if anyone needs moral support here.
    Discolsure: no position

  32. Lee says:

    Carl Icahn is pretty good at times

    • Tom Green says:


      Hope you have a place in that half mile belt around the east side of the lake. Very interesting micro climate. Had a place in Saugatuck for quite some time.


    • CB says:

      Lee, I know curiosity killed the cat…what has carl Icahn done to impress you?

      • Lee says:

        NFLX C B

      • CB says:

        Oh my, I was out and didn’t see that. Thanks Lee! Carl I-coin….he’s good with numbers, isn’t he.

      • torehund says:

        Didnt Carl Ican own lots of Telik, lol.
        My guru is Kirk Kekorian, we both own Delta, now Par Petroleum, lol. Funny story, Kirk was lured to buy, and the one who sold to him knew the firm was rotten to the core.
        Stock went to pink, then OTCbb. Fell to 6 cents, and now trades at 1,15 usd.

      • CB says:

        tore, any sentence that includes Kirk Kerkorian, Carl Ican, and Kim kardashian and the words ” we both” sounds kina cool : ))

      • CB says:

        oops…kinda cool….if a typo appears on the internet…then,yes, it’s real… the latest target I am seeing on appl is now $415, ….that’s a San Fran are, could work

      • torehund says:

        CB- Kirk K started with 5 000 usd that he saved during the war. He went by investing those money up to 16 bill, until the recession hit him in 2008. Big men sometimes do even bigger mistakes…that comforts me as I also do some horrible mistakes….but the biggest mistake is often to sell too early..A well picked smallcap should be held 4-5 X bottom price at a minimum.
        He dropped out of shool at 8 grade, not wasting any valuable time.

      • CB says:

        Thanks for that very interesting introduction, Torehund. It’s always fun to hear how some folks came into prominence. What you said about Kirk” dropping out of shool at 8 grade, and not wasting any valuable time” – is a particularly good observation as many famous business people & inventors dropped out of school, which turned out to be the perfect move for them as they developed a strong interest in something & realized very early on what they were good at & what they should focus their energy & talents on. Also, I see that Kirk is a Gemini, & G’s are famous for being the fastest thinking sun sign & they often become experts in a certain filed because they love to chat & soak up information from lots of people (hello internet, huh? : ) . So they have their unique learning style. Plus they’re great problem solvers. And that’s essentially the recipe for success in life, isn’t it? Kerkorian also made me think of Larry Ellison who once said: that he had the attention span of a hummingbird…intriguing, isn’t it? ’cause it seems that his constant search for new ideas & constant simultaneous exposure to many different things has probably been key to his success. There are many different routes to learning & formal schooling is just one of them. And for some, it’s better to choose a different route. Thanks Tore, great posts & interesting angles on many issues. Thanls 4 sharing ue observations with us &GL with ur small caps and otherwise!

  33. Lee says:

    Thanks RC !

    Hey Scotty
    I asked u how’s it going last week and u didn’t answer. Are you back posting here again or are u going to hit and run ?
    I don’t know if u knew but I’m kind of a big deal…just letting u know
    Cmon Scotty

  34. Lee says:

    I know what it’s like to have the candy store (pit trade) close shop on ya but these AAPL posters are almost suicidal at this point .
    RC did u take the short ? 😉
    It’s pivot time in SPX

    • rc1269 says:

      i didn’t short it Lee! i did think about buying some small puts, just for kicks. nothing i wouldn’t cry over losing entirely. but alas, i’m a wuss. i try to trade what i know, and that ain’t much. cheers!

    • rc1269 says:

      what sites do you visit to monitor the suicidal AAPL posters?

      • mokiepon says:

        Not just aapl, rc; it’s going to take down some of the tech sector with it. Someone on Tues. update said they were short tech… can’t remember who it was but they’ll make some quick bucks.

    • mokiepon says:

      Well rc, I guess we should have had CAJONES! Eh? LOL! (Others, see Tues. Update for cajones reference.) At least I sold half of my aapl between $600-$700. Will have to wait for a big bounce to sell another lot.


      • Lee says:

        Hey RC
        Twitter and StockTwits RE $AAPL
        I feel bad for anyone getting run over..I can relate but I just don’t believe everything I read on these futures/stock streams Bonjour !

      • CB says:

        haha…..what? you guys don’t like that Bonjour guy? why? ..he’s got that, what shall we call it: Old School Swagger?…lol…
        hmm, capoeira that’s totally cool.. that’s bringing sexy back to equities trading : ))

  35. ko68 says:

    Thanks Tony. At which level is it game over for the Apple?

  36. scorp100 says:

    Anyone has NFLX wave count?

  37. robslob64 says:

    Goodbye AAPL…we hardly knew ya…

    Down 4.75% or 25 points AH…Ouch

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