holiday update

SHORT TERM: US markets closed for ML King holiday, DM (DOW) +26

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures bounced around overnight between positive/negative. When the futures market closed the ES (SPX) was +4.50, and the NQ (NDX) was +9.25. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing home sales at 10:00.

Over the weekend we analyzed the current bull market, paying particular attention to the price and time wave relations since March 2009. As we have have been noting in the weekend reports we still envision the potential for at least three more uptrends, after this uptrend concludes. With this in mind we attempted to project the rest of the bull market in time and price. Without getting into specifics, since this is just a guesstimate, we can see a potential for SPX 1700 and DOW 16,000 by Q4 2013. After that, should this Cycle wave [1] bull market end there, we see the potential for a 45%+ drop in market value into Q4 of 2014 for Cycle wave [2]. Please keep in mind this is only a rough guesstimate. As the rest of the bull market waves unfold we will get a better idea of the potential high. The bear market to follow, however, is what what we have been expecting for quite some time, should our long term count be correct.

Short term support is at SPX 1471/75 and 1462/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum displays a building negative divergence at friday’s close. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1420 with the swing level now around SPX 1471. Enjoy your holiday.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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147 Responses to holiday update

  1. torehund says:

    Market may look exhausted, but when lots of shares align for a concerted move its more like silent before the storm.

  2. Lee says:

    Its that time again

  3. rc1269 says:

    GOOG to the moon

  4. mokiepon says:

    It’s offical for Demark now. 1492+. I can hardly wait to read Tony’s Update.
    Bot another 1/2 pos. uvxy 10.89.


  5. mokiepon says:

    Just read article saying exit polls in Israel show Netanyahu and his Likud Party the likely winners of elections, though by a smaller margin than last time. Still enough to form coalition govt.


  6. mokiepon says:

    I think spx is running out of oxygen for now. I’ve never seen such complacency or lack of fear. Professionals running out of funds until end of month I’ll betcha.


  7. Lee says:

    GL guys…should I say gals now also ?

  8. CB says:
    maybe the day after tomorrow, or the day after that , and that’s a big maybe 🙄

  9. aktiesnack says:

    Tom DeMark, founder of Market Studies and creator of the DeMark Indicators, told Bloomberg TV’s Adam Johnson yesterday that an S&P exhaustion signal is near. He said if the S&P (which is currently at 1,470) breaks above the September high of 1,474.51 and spikes to 1492-1500, it would generate 13 days of exhaustion and an official sell signal for the market.

  10. rc1269 says:

    some good AAPL earnings could really get this 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 going. (okay, not sure what iteration of 3 we’re on, but feels like that’s about right). hah
    just imagine, if we can rally 10% *wihtout* AAPL what the market can do if it pops $50-100 points the next few weeks

  11. mokiepon says:

    Bot half position uvxy 11.01


  12. torehund says:

    Tweaking ROSGs graph, this weak wave pattern is soon ending, last part of flatlining must be a hidden weak ABC. Frontline eventually starting to deliver…
    Bought some ASTI, mobile solar gadget that may sell, techs not bad either.

  13. Tom Green says:

    One thing that bothers me here is the Ten YR TSY yield is not participating on the upside.


  14. H D says:

    the beauty of ‘twitter traders’ is you can read about VPOC’s that don’t exist as we haven’t traded here in 5 years. JMHO

  15. Lee says:

    R1 ESH @ 1485.50

    Suns getting warmer in my office… Just a matter of time

  16. mokiepon says:

    Buyers coming into VIX futures now.


  17. ourmaninnyc says:

    Hi Tony — thanks for the update. Italy’s starting to look interesting – the new Greece, in the good way, near/at a bottom…

  18. pbnj123 says:

    Good afternoon Tony
    In looking at the SPX weekly – is it right to call that a divergence – or not at this time?
    Please advise
    Thank you

  19. Tony, any projections on how much higher crude oil has to go here before it pulls back? Thanks.

  20. aktiesnack says:

    Tom DeMark, founder of Market Studies and creator of the DeMark Indicators, told Bloomberg TV’s Adam Johnson yesterday that an S&P exhaustion signal is near. He said if the S&P (which is currently at 1,470) breaks above the September high of 1,474.51 and spikes to 1492-1500, it would generate 13 days of exhaustion and an official sell signal for the market.

  21. CB says:

    here we goagain , a brief touch of rsi(14) 70 -last time we did this was, yes when spx was 1474 …
    with that budget mess just starting againm, is there any reason to go above?
    so which stock do we need to follow now for market clues- the hotstuff DDD or the fallen angel AAPL..

  22. No one cares about apple no more…interesting

  23. saf18hornet says:

    Anybody want to try to put a count on DDD? Year-to-Year stock increase of just over 300%. I’m not sure how to quite read their chart right now, but I see a 3 of 3 presently? I think the sky is the limit for this stock….

  24. H D says:

    Wiii’s getting weaker and weaker. 1398-1468 wi and a .5 wiii 1451-1486 seeing -D allready. Not sure we have room for more 1-2’s, or even all the 1-2’s we allready have but it ain’t up to me. 3 down and 3 up today so far IMO.

  25. Lee says:

    Going to feed my Picidae’s
    CL looks frothy but so does beer.
    I’ve been hanging with too many retired people lately and it’s not that bad of a life

  26. Lee says:

    Historically the day after President Obama’s inauguration is a bit bearish..Just a lil bit

    • CB says:

      thanks Lee! that helps, maybe we can get to Tony’s ST support with Bamas’s Halo Effect’ Help..well, sth like that 😉
      Impressive what you said about ur Dad Lee. Good Old School!!

      • Lee says:

        Thanks C B !
        My neck still hurts from watching the Luna and it’s buddies last night 😉

      • CB says:

        haa..sometimes the view is worth freezing ur butt, huh..well la luna is in gemini today, so we want everything ‘RIGHT NOW’ …so we won’t get it (obviously )..I want 1470 right now….so u still playing (basketball) games with ur Dad, Lee ? 🙂

      • Lee says:

        Hey C B
        Well we used to play HORSE then switched to PIG. He had lower spinal surgery last winter so he’s on the bench. He’s doing great and is saving his energy to get on the tractor this spring to mow/plow/bushhog about killed him not to gangsta roll on his John Deere last year. THX !

      • CB says:

        hey now, I had to go to Ehow to fully comprehend ur “games.” But now I know what horse & Pig are., U two are good!
        Hope ur dad recovers nicely, Lee -surgeons can do some amazing things these days. Otherwise, there is a chance he’ll let you drive that tractor, perhaps? (in the driveway only, right?)….so, caution Lee: people may stare.
        if I understand this current ST count, this is w. 4, where w. 2 was simple, so this one is complex, so why am I even bothering with this

  27. Lee says:

    lil bit of resist at Fridays high in ESH

  28. mokiepon says:

    FYI: Bot uvxy 11.50 on Fri., which I don’t like doing. It’s up over 2% this morning… Think i got lucky. BBL.


    • mokiepon says:

      This turned out to be a good bit of luck. Would it be that they all turned out this well. Usually, I drop this next day on amount that pays for buy & sell, but this is yielding nicely.


    • H D says:

      UVXY is the P3 the wavers were looking for. 400-11$ -It’s never rallied. This product has pressure and will go away similar to TVIX IMO.

      • mokiepon says:

        HD, that’s why I don’t like to hold it for long. It could hold up if there’s a sizeable pullback or outright correction in Feb. Other than for overnight protection, I don’t like it.


      • H D says:

        She’s a widowmaker but I know some that use it with good success. Best of luck with it.

      • mokiepon says:

        HD, I don’t think uvxy will go the way of tvix. uvxy splits shares when volatility gets low enough and that accounts for the 481 high and 11 low. tvix didn’t have a habit of splitting, until the one time it did because it issued more shares and didn’t follow proper notification procedures; thus on that day, it just plummeted. Now, big lawsuits pending re: tvix. If uvxy falls under 10, I think it will be split again.


      • mokiepon says:

        HD, that’s what ProShares does, as opposed to Velocity w/tvix. Velocity also splitting tvix now, but not doing a good job of it; it’s at $5, so getting down there. Legally, they can call it and close it and pay out at current price. ProSh can do it w/uvxy too, but I think they make big money with it.


      • mokiepon says:

        Short version: Velocity Tvix went from being closed-end to open-end and they didn’t announce correctly (except maybe the Big Boys).


      • H D says:

        JMHO Melinda but it’s a rigged game. No shorts allowed so it’s a crash test dummy.

      • mokiepon says:

        HD, all I can say is that it’s a trading tool and NOT an investment. I’ve gained as much as I’ve lost; calling it even. I consider it protection against downside panic and it’s worked well for that.


  29. mokiepon says:

    torehund: Do you still like CYCC here? I’m liking it and need a sm cap pharma that hasn’t moved yet. If you still like it, I’ll buy on this pullback.


    • Tom Green says:


      Any pullback from here looks ok with a stop @$4.25


    • torehund says:

      Yes melinda I hold it, and expect it to run in a not to distant future. It has cooled down a bit after a golden crossin when it jumped to 8 usd. I will sell it if it does a multibagger, like 4 x todays price. But dont bet the farm on a single small cap pharma. lol.

      • torehund says:

        CYCC, from Dec 28 to date it looks like a big ABC down, where the last days rise is an upward bend of the end to the large ABC down. Lets see.

      • mokiepon says:

        torehund, I never bet the farm on any one thing of any kind. I just needed a sm cap pharma to complete my ‘collection’.


  30. CB says:
    look up in the sky’s kinda nice :))

  31. pooch77 says:

    Thanks Tony,8:30, -5 Degrees in Greenbay Wi.

  32. pooch77 says:

    Tony,sorry if i missed this but after we top in March do you see a 5-10% correction before the bull resumes towards 1600+

  33. mike7x says:

    Thanks for the Holiday & Weekend Updates Tony! The last time I read a comment of yours concerning gold I think you stated that there was some disagreement within your group about it’s direction. Today Goldman Sachs stated the following:

    “Gold may climb over the next three months as U.S. lawmakers attempt to tackle the country’s debt ceiling and the world’s largest economy slows, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, advising investors to place bets on advances.
    “We see current prices as a good entry point to re- establish fresh longs,” analysts Damien Courvalin and Alec Phillips wrote in a Jan. 18 report. The bank reiterated a three- month target of $1,825 an ounce, as well as a forecast for prices to weaken in the second half as the U.S. economy rebounds.”

    Tony, do you have an opinion on the direction of gold and any price targets for the short-to-medium term? (I did read in the Weekend Update that you stated gold was “trying” to establish an uptrend.)

    • tony caldaro says:

      Heard earlier in the week Goldman was bearish on gold?
      Still mixed views in OEW land.
      With Crude and PLAT uptrending Gold should join.
      After that, and how high – hard to say

      • mike7x says:

        Thanks Tony. It’s never easy. And now the weather’s getting a lot colder. (May be good for nat gas.)

      • tony caldaro says:

        commodity bears are a bear

      • torehund says:

        There is something not right with gold, lazy smooth waves and not more than half of the waves are retraced. i think gold is afraid Obama riding two horses, Qe gold likes, but not the topping out of the debth ceiling. Maybe gold will jump temporarily on debth ceiling extension, but RSI meeting resistance at 50 multiple times is a bad omen.

  34. thoth8 says:

    Thanks Tony! Great work as always : )

  35. Lee says:

    Thanks Tony ! Just think just 2 1/2 months til u have to run ur a/c in the Heartland 😉
    I traveled back north into the artic ….at least it’s sunny

    Hey torehund
    Good stuff Thank You

    • tony caldaro says:

      10 degrees expected overnight.
      It’s just exciting living where the temperature swings 100 degrees in the time it takes the market to create just three waves.

      • CB says:

        thanks Tony.
        brrr…poor guys!!…well, I can understand Tony, ur stuck where you are, but Lee, what on earth keeps you in the artctic these days(?)….that’s cruelty against self……You guys are good though…always looking on the bright side…way to go :-))

    • torehund says:

      Lee thanks, and its great to take part in this blog, I swirled around for some time through many sites with emphasis on EW, frustrated, until I ended up here…
      If Elliot himself was still alive, I bet he would enjoy it too…

  36. wcagle says:

    Doesn’t a bull market only last about 42 months? From March 2009 to September 2013 was 42 months.

  37. mokiepon says:

    Thanks Tony! I’m glad you have the guts to put such a long-range general forecast out here so that we all can follow it. Those of us who trade with any success know that forecasts of this type are never completely accurate to the letter, but it gives us all something to watch and learn from. Promises some exciting trading ahead.

    • tony caldaro says:

      forecasts of this type are never completely accurate … exactly, it’s just a roadmap

      • mokiepon says:

        I thank you for the roadmap. Will have to see what kind of “forks in the road” appear. I think it’s fun, but, I’m easily amused; according to my lady friends who aren’t the least bit interested in stocks/trading. I dare them to try this and call it ‘easy’.

    • Tom Green says:


      Someone just paid off an old debt to me. No kidding, I have in my hand paper money from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe for Ten Trillion Dollars! I’m not planning on retiring. How much is it worth?


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