SHORT TERM: US markets closed for ML King holiday, DM (DOW) +26
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures bounced around overnight between positive/negative. When the futures market closed the ES (SPX) was +4.50, and the NQ (NDX) was +9.25. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing home sales at 10:00.
Over the weekend we analyzed the current bull market, paying particular attention to the price and time wave relations since March 2009. As we have have been noting in the weekend reports we still envision the potential for at least three more uptrends, after this uptrend concludes. With this in mind we attempted to project the rest of the bull market in time and price. Without getting into specifics, since this is just a guesstimate, we can see a potential for SPX 1700 and DOW 16,000 by Q4 2013. After that, should this Cycle wave  bull market end there, we see the potential for a 45%+ drop in market value into Q4 of 2014 for Cycle wave . Please keep in mind this is only a rough guesstimate. As the rest of the bull market waves unfold we will get a better idea of the potential high. The bear market to follow, however, is what what we have been expecting for quite some time, should our long term count be correct.
Short term support is at SPX 1471/75 and 1462/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum displays a building negative divergence at friday’s close. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1420 with the swing level now around SPX 1471. Enjoy your holiday.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market