wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market rallies, DOW +62

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were flat to higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1460. The SPX had closed at 1457 yesterday. In the first hour of trading the SPX hit 1465, within three points of the uptrend high, then began to pullback. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1458, then bounced into a 1461 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds gainedย 4 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets before market hours, at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims, then at 10:00 Wholesale inventories.

The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 1465, pulled back to 1458, then ended the day at 1461. The recent rally, from yesterday’s SPX 1452 low, has moved 13 points to the upside nearly retracing the entireย pullback. With short term momentum rising above overbought early it does appear Minute wave iii is underway.

Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1462/64 and 1471/75. Short term momentum hit overbought, then pulled back to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now SPX 1450. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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62 Responses to wednesday update

  1. mokiepon says:

    Almost! Just waiting on spx to get there, but nooooo. Has to take it to the edge and STOP! LOL! WFC reports tomorrow. Whatever happens with that report could likely influence all of next week.


  2. pbnj123 says:

    Nice move today but was wondering (even though minor) are we getting -DIV on both the 60 minute and daily SPX WRT RSI?
    Thank you

  3. mokiepon says:

    Looking good!…Except for DJI. I am concerned about that. DJI ~100 pts under confirmation and SPX almost at last high. I’ll just party while I got it going on. All I know to do.


  4. alexh110 says:

    Not sure about your new Gold count Patrick. What’s the thinking behind it?
    Doesn’t affect my short-term strategy anyway (unless your Int a extends). I was planning to stay long only for the next few weeks (which would be Int b). I expect to see $1780-1790 in mid-late February, followed by a substantial correction.

  5. rc1269 says:

    AAPL looks like it’s about to crack for the day

    • rc1269 says:

      bots must have heard that. time to flip it around. amazing how strong the market can rally when AAPL is going the same direction

  6. torehund says:

    ABC done on sp 500 ? Frontline (FRO) looks ripe…

    • torehund says:

      …and USU(USEC:INC), uranium refiner(enriching business) too looks like…
      My Peix, the Pacific ethanol, heck there is such a lack of ethanol in the US they have got to ship it all the way from Brazil, so clean tankers go big….PEIX is producing 200 mll gallons a year and ethanol was over 4 usd a gallon pre fin crisis, now below 3 usd. Looks good for this commodity near term.

  7. H D says:

    upgraded our R HW point here to HDPOC 1469 data points 1999, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013

  8. Tom Green says:


    A tighter stop just appeared on AAPL @ $512


  9. H D says:

    ES -9 gap n crap bots

    • rc1269 says:

      closed, then rallly. sometime i’d like to see the bots do something not so obvious. but then, i guess they wouldn’t be bots if they did

  10. rc1269 says:

    meaningful looking intraday reversal on the DAX

  11. H D says:

    Lee, Was it my jokes? cya amigo at 1440 or 1499 though and sound the pivot alarm! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  12. rc1269 says:

    Tony, if this am was the Minute i high, and Minute ii retraced 61.8% to 1425 (a near-perfect gap closing), would that be too much for your Minor 3 count, or would that move still leave everything intact?

  13. rc1269 says:

    Man, AAPL just cannot hold gains.

  14. mjtplayer says:

    Making lows at/around the full moon 2 weeks ago, highs on the new moon tomorrow?

  15. LX says:

    Going to be away for a while but wanted to say …Nice call in GC Alex ! ๐Ÿ™‚
    Be nice to each other here..Im not saying sugary fake nice but civil.
    I’m going to let stuff marinate and take care of some biz.
    LOL I know I say that and I’m back in 2 minutes usually but we’ll see.
    Listen to what Tony doesnt say as much as he does say !

    • pbnj123 says:

      When the cat away – you know what comes next ๐Ÿ˜‰
      Don’t stay gone too long

    • CB says:

      Enjoy ur time off, Lee! Hey,you know we’ll miss you, right? (well, unless you’re back in 2 mins – so please give us a chance) ๐Ÿ™‚ thanks 4 the advice, Lee!
      So Tony, like Lee says…what aren’t you saying right now, please ? lol..

      • CB says:

        Lee, it’s been more than 2 mins now, so we’re really missing you now…c’mon don’t let this market break out without you, cuz it could fail ๐Ÿ™‚

    • rc1269 says:

      peace out. don’t be gone long. not sure how long my fiest can remain contained without the civility police battoning me in the back of the head. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    • tony caldaro says:

      Listen to what Tony doesnt say as much as he does say !

      Have fun Lee

  16. rc1269 says:

    Bots close the gap then we’re free to rally on?

  17. rc1269 says:

    TRAN only about 65pts away from breaking to new highs

  18. mokiepon says:

    DJI will have to really climb to get into confirmation territory…

    Tony, is there a ‘time limit’ to DJI making it into the confirmation area (13,543)? Maybe nothing set in stone, but what’s most beneficial; one week, 2 wks, one month, etc.?


  19. LX says:

    Bot o rific
    GC R2 1671
    ES R2 1464
    CL R3* 95.13

  20. torehund says:

    3-3-3 and soon another 3, thats 3s in 4 densities, lol.

    many new heroic feats are under way to improve my little blog’s offerings, such as a new stock picking system that picks super hero momo stocks to hold for one month and another system that finds 90 pound weakling stocks to short during that same month. i will be testing these two new systems here live prior to doling out actual cash.

    the list of 10 new longs would have made 1.61% today while the spy was up only 0.25%.

    the list of 10 new shorts would have made +0.63% today.

    the goal is to always hold equal number of longs and shorts, with a fresh list every month. no complicated timing will be necessary with this combination of stock picking systems; the only timing is a rarely occurring signal that is used for predicting severe market down turns, i.e. crashes.
    under a crash scenerio no longs will be suggested for that month or a percentage stop loss for total long folio will be given . currently there is no crash foreseen within the coming month.

    again, this system is only an experiment.
    see my blog’s comments section for a list of both current longs and shorts.

    • CB says:

      “crash-predicting”, that sounds exciting.. Can you tell us a little bit about it, without giving awaystoo many of ur trading secrets, SandP? thanks.

  22. torehund says:

    Looked a little on the ETF called UNG (Nat gas), it misses an abc down to complete a double abc. Could be a bet at low 15 usd. Maybe for a multi-decade bullmarket in this commodity. Contracts rollover makes it geared which will aid its ascent, once the bull starts roaring.

    • torehund says:

      My thesis is, as I pointed out earlier that the edabc pattern from top of wave major 2 is a “bent” wave that just could not descend but was tilted upwards as conditions were to bullish for it to descend. Remove the straight descent from summer 2001 and then attach the edabc with a 45 degree tilt.
      So in my terms we are entering the real 3 rd wave NOW. AND thats why the market conditions haven’t acted/felt like a major 3rd wave until NOW. Bend it down and see for yourself…

      • torehund says:

        …and its all because the FED over-did it. Otherwise the major 3rd would have started lower like Japan that almost tested the all time low last year ending at 8100.
        But it isnt a big problem now; whenever the commodities gets too expensive US will concurrently also be stronger and counteract commodity rise by an increasing the dollar.

  23. torehund says:

    You see todays graph in Rosg is all a copy of the decent from May 2012-until yesterday in miniature. Symmery made by the boots, heck they are part of nature too….long stretched though.

  24. scorp100 says:

    Tony, although FB has moved up quite a bit in last few weeks, do you like it long term?

  25. mokiepon says:

    Thanks Tony!


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