thursday update

SHORT TERM: decline continues in bungee session, DOW -18

Overnight Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 350K vs 361K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1420, bounced to 1423 in the first few minutes, and then started to pullback. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 65.1 vs 73.7, while New home sales were reported higher: 377K vs 368K. The market then broke through SPX 1413/16 short term support and continued lower. Around 12:30 the SPX found support at the next short term level 1402/03, and then tried to rally. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1409, pulled back to 1403 by 2:30, then moved higher still. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 1421, then pulled back into a 1418 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude rose 20 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Pending home sales at 10:00.

The market opened flat today, bounced a bit, then headed lower, taking out support at SPX 1413/16, 1412, and then finding support at 1402/03. The first important level, SPX 1412, has now been breached to the downside. The next important level, SPX 1398, is still holding firm. The bounce from yesterday’s SPX 1416 low was not sufficient to suggest a completed wave from 1433. So, in effect, we are looking at five waves down from SPX 1448 to today’s 1402 low. The rally that followed today’s low suggests those five waves completed. This decline, however, is by far the largest since the downtrend low at SPX 1343. The bearish DOW count is beginning to edge a bit higher in probability.

Short term support is at SPX 1413/16 and the 1402/03, with resistance at 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at the noon lows, then rebounded to above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative, with the swing level now at SPX 1424. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull/bear inflection point


About tony caldaro

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54 Responses to thursday update

  1. Submitted on 2012/11/19 at 12:15 pm:
    “long tna from 51.42 this morning, a 20% allocation.”

    just closed out 10% allocation (half allocation) of tna at 61.33 for a 19.27% profit. the remaining half will be sold above 63.00.


  2. LX says:

    New lows in ESH..Nice call Tony !


  3. fionamargaret says:
    I think we call this the bull/bear inflection point.

    Thanks Tony.


  4. rc1269 says:

    Officially checking out now for the year – Happy New Year everyone!
    Thanks Tony for another year of your tireless contributions. Cheers!


  5. aquafam says:

    Happy New Year to all!

    I feel more like I do now, than I did before.



  6. budfox9450 says:

    Bulls appear to have the basing out of AAPL foing for it, of late. Yet, there is one
    point, not being mentioned – the Low made in the FXE last July, has now completed
    an A-B-C corrective up pattern. Resistance, in the FXE at 132, appears to be rather
    strong. Thus – the USD might be the Bear, ace. That is yet, to be played out.
    For now, AAPL rules…


  7. rc1269 says:

    at ES 1400 this am, it had retraced 76.4% of yesterday’s 1396-1416 move


  8. scatman12 says:

    Fib …u know what I mean now! 🙂


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