wednesday update

SHORT TERM: decline continues, DOW -24

Overnight the Asian markets that were open gained 1.2%. Most European markets were closed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +4.3% vs +3.0%. The market opened one point higher than monday’s SPX 1427 close. It then moved 1 point higher, to SPX 1429, and began to pullback. Around 11:00 the SPX dropped below late last week’s 1423 low, and hit 1416, short term support, at 11:30. Then it started to rally. The rally carried the SPX to 1424 by 3:00. Then the market pulled back into a SPX 1420.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude rallied $2.45, Gold added $2, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Consumer confidence and New home sales at 10:00.

The market opened slightly higher today, but immediately reversed to take out the recent SPX 1423 low. We can now count a potentially five impulsing waves down from the recent SPX 1448 high: 1433-1444-1423-1433-1416. Should the market continue to decline, it will remain implusive, suggesting lower prices and possibly a downtrend ahead. Should the market rally, then make a slightly lower low, it can then be considered corrective within the current uptrend. SPX 1412 and 1398 remain important levels.

Short term support is at SPX 1413/16 and 1402/03, with resistance at 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum was quite oversold today before bouncing to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the swing level now around SPX 1428. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

LONG TERM: bull/bear inflection point continues

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp