holiday update

SHORT TERM: most markets closed

Overnight the only markets we noticed open were Japan +1.4%, and China +2.5%. Most markets will re-open tomorrow. Bonds, currencies, commodities and the precious metals were not traded. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller will be reported at 9:00.

After reviewing the charts for the SPX we noticed the daily RSI is declining from 1448, with a negative divergence. On the hourly charts there is a positive divergence in place. The decline from SPX 1448, however, will start to look impulsive if the recent 1423 low is exceeded to the downside. It appears the market is reaching an important juncture during this inflection point.

A quick review of the foreign markets displays negative divergences, on the daily charts, for 50% of the indices we track. Despite the holidays, it appears the market will make its decision in the current week, or one that follows.

Short term support SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Happy holidays!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull/bear inflection point 50/50

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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36 Responses to holiday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony.

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    • torehund says:

      Fibro: The bank index looks very much like the nikkei 225 until it bottomed at 8100 a year or so ago. Then banks diverted upwards, while nikkei couldn’t follow. Exquisit chart, thanks a lot for giving a new pice of the puzzle.

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  2. LX says:

    Pop to ESH 1442 next up ?

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  3. CB says:

    Hi everyone.
    Nice call on crude Tony. Some folks think that 2013 is going to be a good for commodities. Do you agree?

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  4. adding shorts at open, including $MDRX and $RBCN. see blog comments for details. http://standardpoor.wordpress.com

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  5. M1 says:

    Tony, we are counting this uptrend as Primary wave V on the NAZ chart. I wonder how could be adjusted if we get a bear market confirmation ?
    Thanks

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  6. M1 says:

    Happy holidays, Tony.
    Thanks for this holiday update.

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  7. tony caldaro says:

    happy holidays MMM

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  8. mmmiiikkkeee says:

    FYI, Tony, Taiwan and Thailand were open as well.
    I left a correcting comment in reply to yenguy in the previous thread in spite of the fact that I think his general thesis has some merit. Mentioning that here to increase the chance he sees my reply to him.
    Thanks and best wishes for happy holidays to Tony and to many others who post here.

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    • torehund says:

      one issue, shanghai and japans in ABC modus both of them, retracing. It isnt motivated moves on indexes thats for sure butt in a larger perspective could not these ABCs be part of a wave 1 or steep part of wave 3 and make for just parts of a larger motivated wave. When good news hits suddenly there isnt usually time for markets to do a tedious motivated move and therefore the ABCs. So it cant be all that bad, that said until now these ABCs up in the Asian Indexes have all been retraced back fully. Maybe it can change ?

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      • torehund says:

        Egle, the spot dry bulk comp has made a perfect ABCDE from all time high, where the E wave is also an ABC, wonder if the E wave will also make a miniature ABC and add a DE taking it down to less than recent ABC bottom at around 1,3 usd ? If the decline from all time top could be considered a motivated 5th wave down it could retrace a chunk of that huge decline, and if its merely a complex ABCDE on should expect motivated up waves to commence pretty soon. Crazy sector and plenty of beta !!!!

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