monday update

SHORT TERM: decline continues in half day trading session, DOW -52

Overnight the Asian markets open, rose 0.2%. European markets opened higher, but lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1427. The SPX had closed at 1430 on friday. By 10:00 the SPX had dipped to 1425. It then bounced to SPX 1428 by 10:30 before heading lower. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 1425 again, then bounced to a 1427 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.25%. Bonds were down 5 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Most of the markets, worldwide, will be closed for the Christmas Holiday tomorrow.

The market opened lower today, hit SPX 1425, bounced to 1428, then headed to 1425 again before ending at 1427. Overall, the range for the entire day was only three SPX points. Not much to go on, as most traders are already on holiday.

Short term support remains at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum ended the day rising off of slightly oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative, from SPX 1431, with the swing level now around 1430. Best to you and yours this Holiday season!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull/bear 50/50 heading into 2013


About tony caldaro

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6 Responses to monday update

  1. theyenguy says:

    You write Medium Term: uptrrend.

    I reply nope, nein, nada, just not the case.

    World Stocks, VT, traded lower on the exhaustion of the world central banks’ monetary authority on Monday December 24, 2012.

    A global bear market, the worst bear market that humanity will ever know, has commenced as the world has entered into Kondratieff Winter with Dow Theory confirmation coming from Transportation Stocks, IYT, and Industrial Stock, IYJ, both turning lower.

    Liberal finance has turned toxic as investors no longer trust the world central banks capability to stimulate global growth and corporate profitability. Seigniorage, that is the moneyness, of the world’s sovereign nations is starting to fail. World stocks, ACWI, are no longer able to leverage higher on Aggregate Credit, AGG, as is seen in their ongoing Yahoo Finance chart.

    The risk on momentum rally that came through a Global Zero Rate Interest Rate Program is history as is seen in the following sectors trading lower on Monday, Solar, TAN, Global Real Estate, DRN, Gaming, BJK, Steel, SLX, Global Water, CGG, and Chinese Real Estate, TAO. Country stocks trading lower included Egypt, EGPT, Russia, RSX, and Israel, EIS.

    Mexico, EWW, Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura SAB de CV, PINFRA.MX, is one of the Emerging Market Carry Trade, EWX, leaders, that has benefited from a North American Infrastructure, PKB, safe haven rally away from the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, EUFN, having risen 50%, on a Mexico Peso, MXN/USD, rising 8% over the last year.

    Total Bonds, BND, traded strongly lower as well as Long Duration Corporate Bonds, BLV, Build America Bonds, BABS, International Corporate Bonds, PICB, Leverage Buyouts, PSP, and Junk Bonds, JNK traded lower. Thirty Year US Government Bonds, EDV, and Ten Year US Government Notes, TLT, have already traded lower, as have Municipal Bonds, MUB, High Yield Municipal Bonds, HYMB, and Mortgage Backed Bonds, MBB, on a steepening 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, as is seen in the Steepner ETF, STPP, rising beginning in early December 2012. The Benchmark Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, closed at 1.77%, up from its recent 1.70%.

    Competitive currency devaluation is underway on debt deflation as the global debt bubble, that is the global debt trade is history. The US Dollar, $USD, UUP, DYX, is trading higher from its December 20, 2012 low. The World Major Currencies, DBV, Japanese Yen, FXY, Australian Dollar, FXA, Indian Rupe, ICN, Canadian Dollar, FXC, Euro, FXE, Swiss Franc, FXF, Brazilian Real, BZF, and the Swedish Krona, FXS, as well as the Emerging Market Currencies CEW, are trading lower.

    The Currency Demand Curve, that is the ratio of the Small Cap Pure Value Shares, RZV, relative to the Small Cap Growth Shares, RZG, RZV:RZG, has turned lower, as is seen in their ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart and in their ongoing MSN Chart, communicates that investors are no longer using carry trade loans to buy revenue shares such as the Small Cap Consumer Discretionary, PSCD, the Discretionary, IYC, and the Small Cap Revenue Shares, RWJ, over the Small Cap Growth Shares, RZG, as is seen in their ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart. Investors are selling the world’s currencies and buying the US Dollar.

    Liberalism is being replaced by Authoritarianism as Inflationism is turning to Destructionism, as the Milton Friedman paradigm of floating currencies, introduced in 1971, is failing. Regionalism and Totalitarian Collectivism is the new paradigm providing diktat as money.

    Clearly the fiat money system is declining and the diktat money system is rising, as leaders meet in summits and announce technocratic regional governance, where diktat serves as money, credit, and weath.

    The iron hegemony of Crony Capitalism and European Socialism, is crumbling, and it its place a Ten Toed Kingdom of Regionalism is rising, as the dynamos of global growth and corporate profit are winding down, and the dynamos of regional security, stability and sustainability are powering up.

    Liberalism featured sovereign nation states. Authoritarianism features regional sovereign bodies, such as the ECB, and regional sovereign leaders such as Mario Draghi.

    There is no human action, nor are there any sovereign individuals, as perceived by Libertarians. There is only fate, that is destiny, operating sovereignly, to replace the Banker Regime of Liberalism, with result that the Beast Regime of Authoritarianism, is rising up out of the profligate Mediterranean PIGS banking and sovereign debt crisis, which will metastasize, with the result that EU leaders will meet in even more summits, to waive national sovereignty and pool sovereignty regionally, to provide a Eurozone Super State, where leaders in Brussels and Berlin, manage the European economy through public private partnerships, consisting of leaders from industry and government.


    • mmmiiikkkeee says:

      Aside from the fact that many of the stocks you mentioned are thinly traded and Christmas Eve day was an early to close session with little volume, a good number of them went ex-dividend prime example BND which was up on the day not strongly lower as you claim when its dividend, short-term capital gain and long-term capital gain distributions are counted. Please see if you doubt me. There were quite a few other ETF’s that had distributions that you missed as well but BND was the most extreme error you made. Didn’t you ask yourself why BND was “strongly lower” on a day the bond futures were barely changed?


    • 7dayyss says:

      This is “”, your confused with “”!!!


  2. torehund says:

    What we can see from SP 500 are to inverted Vs with positive divergences, firstly the one that finished left leg in Sept 30 last year. The juice of this divergence has driven the index into these 2 symmetric ABCs that ended not so long ago and are beeing retraced.
    If one looks right before this inverted V there is a HUGE inverted V that has not yet been involved, and is the one that may propel the indexes skywards in a little while in to larger ABCs of higher order.
    If we then look to Nikkei, the inverted V with pos divergence (from nov 2011 to june 20012) produced a double ABC too, but the first ABC was so weak that it didnt elevate much just made slow sloping zig-zags with pos divergences, the last ABC rose the index recently to 10 000 !.
    If one tweaks Nikkeis graph (at one point in the middle make M to inverted w) from the bottom after the financial crisis until bottom one year ago, it exhibits a huge inverted V with a pos divergence. As with SP 500 this has juice enough to elevate the indexes enormously in two higher order ABCs.
    I dont want to give you my estimates of the magnitude of these ABCs here and now, as you would think of me as a mad hatter ! Enjoy the holy-days !


  3. continuing to work 64.275 as a tna sell target on half of tna holdings, once target is met we will be 75% long, down from 85% long, i’ll be using a higher target on the remaining 10% allocation of tna unless otherwise mentioned in my blog. remember we are currently 20% long tna and 65% various multiple stock folios..

    Merry Christmas , don’t lose your motivation to close out this year with a bang.


  4. timing101 says:

    Thanks Tony. Let’s go wrap some presents. 🙂


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