thursday update

SHORT TERM: oversold rally, DOW +60

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. European markets opened lower, but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +3.1% vs +2.7%, and weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 361K vs 343K. The market again opened one point higher, than yesterday’s SPX 1436 close. It then nudged up to SPX 1438 and pulled back to 1433 by 10:00. At 10:00 Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.04 mln vs 4.79 mln, Leading indicators were reported lower: -0.2% vs +0.2%, the Philly FED was reported higher: +8.1 vs -10.7, and FHFA housing prices were reported higher: +0.5% vs +0.2%. The market rallied to SPX 1439 by 10:30, pulled back to 1435 by 11:30, and then rallied again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1444 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold dropped $20, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX shifts back to the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending, PCE prices and Durable goods orders both at 8:30. Then Consumer sentiment at 10:00 on this Options expiration friday.

The market opened about flat today, pulled back to make a lower low at SPX 1433, then reversed and rallied into the close. If the Minute wave iii of Minor 3 is subdividing, we are likely to see new uptrend highs soon. On the alternate bearish count, we may be forming a rising diagonal triangle, for Intermediate wave C of Major 2, with the touchpoints: 1439-1412-1448-1433-….

Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and 1471/75. Short term momentum rose from quite oversold today to near overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around 1431. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull/bear inflection range continues


About tony caldaro

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83 Responses to thursday update

  1. ronini3 says:

    want to see a vertical stick at the end of this cliff fiasco.

  2. CB says:

    Tony you’ve pointed out to us that nat gas is going to be important in the next few years. Thanks very much for that. Here’s an interesting article with several specific plays in that area if anyone is interested

  3. bdoalex says:

    I am a CPA.
    Forgotten in the Fiscal Cliff negotiations or non-negotiating is the fact that the Alternative Minimum Tax “Patch” also expires this year. WIthout confusing most of you this Patch has been put in place to avert most middle income families from paying AMT. Without the patch most families earning in excess of 100k will be have to pay roughly 5-8k in additional Federal Tax. that in itself will drive the economy down when instead of getting a refund a lot of families will have to pay a few thousand dollars to the IRS.

  4. kvilia says:

    I know it is too earliy but if 1406 won’t hold, will it mean a good probability of a new bear market or just a knee jerk reaction to the fiscal cliff ? Markets are always considered from the phsyshological point of view, could it be just the case now?

  5. LX says:

    I picked a hell of a week to stop sniffing glue

  6. aquafam says:

    My dog is acting very normal today. In fact he’s quite happy. Going for an airplane ride shortly.

    Lee are the birds at the feeder?

    If so, all is normal.


  7. tony caldaro says:

    Welcome to fourth density

    • LX says:

      Thank You
      I feel more dense today 😉

    • torehund says:

      Boots or no boots, dont think the machines are very emotional, shouldnt be affected by Mayan semi-nonsense. However blaming a ” hidden worldwide financial catastrophy” on destiny, the Mayans, had to happen e.t.c, could be a way for politicians to eschew harassment/real stocks, and whats worse… if something is just unsolvable. Where is the paintrade ???

  8. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    Are you still 60 % bullish, 40% bearish ?

  9. LX says:

    Pivots and fibs
    We get the Government we vote for

    • CB says:

      Lee, please tell us you had orders to cover ur shorts where those stops were -then we’ll have something to celebrate, otherwise this is just too depressing 😯
      although the futures/ 60 min/ actually have a +div on 60 min now for the first time..

    • LX says:

      Hey C B
      We were limit down at the low tonight traded 1391.25 ESH
      I did ok

      • LX says:

        Watch GC 1636.50 ** also

      • CB says:

        nice Lee,wow, we’re proud of you! -you were in it while a lot of people can only yap about it, so the audience is very impressed with you : ) …looks like they did a lot of volume taking out those1393ish stops…so I’d like to think they’re done with that level, but it’s probably just wishful thinking(?) I’m sure you’ll have fun trading this market overnight. GL Lee!

      • LX says:

        Hey C B
        I’d say the guys who are in cash or hedged (as tony suggested a few days ago in his update )are the one’s we should be proud of 🙂
        This is silly time

      • CB says:

        agree, good advice Tony & I am sure lots of folks are grateful for it! Lee, both you and Tony have seen it all in the markets, so you guys are ready for any, you’ve got our undivided attention, always 🙂 …Lesson learned here is, I guess: always have orders at some deep never know, sometimes the market gives you a nice gift.

  10. pas1968 says:

    These politicians are just hopeless!!!!!!!
    but they continue to get their paychecks!

  11. The Homeless Daytrader says:

    I’ll be short, for Christmas, and not just in my dreams ….

  12. timing101 says:

    Thanks Tony. Majority Leader Cantor says no vote on Plan “B” this week. Futures down 13 just a minute ago.

  13. pooch77 says:

    Tony,what are chances we hit 1490 -1500 last week of year with any positive rehtoric on F.C. and Santa Rally

  14. Tony, do you think this rally has been impulsive? Apart from financials there is not much that is rallying. Thanks for the blog and Happy holidays.

  15. alexh110 says:

    Tony are you looking to nibble on Gold again soon?
    Should be fun trying to catch the bottom.
    Logically it ought to happen on the last trading day of the year, once the Fiscal Cliff deal is settled. Unless traders try to position themselves ahead of that. (I imagine there’ll be a deal at the very last moment.)

    Weekly MACD is still 9.9 on your chart, and I’m expecting it to fall to zero to balance the left shoulder. Do you think that’s a good method of identifying the bottom?

  16. torehund says:

    I agree that the Mayan calender count IS nonsense, but why from 2009 bottom is there ABCDE in two dimensions. First on grand scale, then from Sept last year. In fact the only flaw in the first grand scale ABC is due to the 5 th wave failure at en of July 2011. This symmetry strikes me as not happening by incident whichever way the market turns. Is it the boots that are preprogrammed for this date ?

  17. vorfahrt says:

    Thanks Tony for your persistently awesome blog throughout the year and actually many years. Your help and teachings are just incredible. Here’s to many more years!!!

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