SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +116
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Current account deficit was reported lower: -$107.5 bln vs -$117.4 bln. The market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 1430 close and started to rally. At 10:00 the NAHB housing index was reported at its highest level in six years: 47 vs 46. The rally continued into the afternoon with small three point pullbacks along the way. At 12:30 the SPX hit 1447, pulled back to 1442 by 2:30, then rallied to 1448 just before closing at 1447.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.50%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude gained 75 cents, Gold dropped $24, and the USD was lower. Medium term support now jumps to the OEW 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30.
The market opened slightly higher today, then entered the OEW 1440 pivot range, (1433-1447), and hit the upper end, and closed there. Since the previous high of this uptrend was SPX 1439, Minute wave iii of Minor 3 certainly appears to be underway. This two day rally from friday’s SPX 1412 low looks like one wave. We would expect it to get a bit higher before any 10+ point pullback occurs. The SPX has now hit the mid-point of the bull/bear inflection range: 1434-1462. The DOW appears to be lagging some.
Short term support is now at the OEW 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought today then backed off. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1420, with the swing level now around 1425. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: market now in bull/bear inflection range