weekend update


After the FED increased QE 3 from $40 bln/month to $85 bln/month on wednesday the SPX made a new uptrend high at 1439. After that the market pulled back for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Foreign markets performed better, with Asian markets gaining 1.8%, European markets gaining 1.1%, and the DJ World index rising 0.6%. Economic reports for the week again displayed positive reports outpacing negative reports. On the uptick: business/wholesale inventories, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, the monetary base, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: the budget/trade deficits worsened, export/import prices declined, and the CPI/PPI declined as well. Next week we get reports on Housing, PCE prices, and Q3 GDP, all during Options expiration week. Best to your holidays!

LONG TERM: bull/bear market inflection range still in play

Our preferred long term bullish count remains on track. We have been counting this bull market as a five Primary wave structure from March 2009. The first two Primary waves ended in 2011 at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway from that low. Primary I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary wave III appears to be following the same path. The exception being a subdividing Major wave 3. Currently the market should be rising in an Intermediate wave iii of Major wave 3. Thus far, this uptrend has yet to display the strength normally associated with a third wave. Over the past few weeks we have been also tracking a viable alternate bearish count. This is the reason for the inflection point.


As we have noted over the past several weeks. The initial downtrend during the past five bear markets, (going back to 1981), produced a market loss between 6.9% and 13.8%. After the decline, the counter-trend uptrend that followed retraced between 69% and 90% of the previous decline. At the recent downtrend low the SPX lost 8.9%, and the DOW lost 8.7%, of its value. This suggested, even in a bear market counter-trend rally, the SPX should reach between 1434 and 1462, (DOW 13,293 and 13,543), before resuming the bear market.


This week both the SPX and DOW moved into the lower end of that range for just two trading days. Then they turned lower even after the FED increased QE 3 from $40bln/mth to $85bln/mth. In recent years these kinds of increases in quantitative easing had fueled fairly substantial rallies. QE 3, however, has produced very small positive market responses. When initially introduced on September 13th, the SPX rallied that day, made an uptrend price high the next, went sideways for a month, and then corrected the 8.9% off the price high. This week’s increase in QE 3 has produced, thus far, even less of a rally. As a result of the market’s non-response to the FED’s doubling down on quantitative easing, we are raising the probability of this alternate count to 40%. We are still bullish, but the probabilities are now only 60% – 40%.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The recent downtrend bottomed in mid-November at SPX 1343. This was within a few points of our worse case support zone: SPX 1345/46. Since that low our 96% accurate WROC indicator generated a buy signal. Suggesting an uptrend confirmation was upcoming. That uptrend confirmation arrived this week.


Our 60% probability bullish count suggests this uptrend is Intermediate wave iii of Major wave 3. For the market to continue in this bullish mode, this uptrend will need to make new bull markets highs before it ends. This suggests an ongoing uptrend, lasting at least three months, and rising much above the recent SPX 1475 high. In fact, since Intermediate wave i was 208 SPX points, the minimum we would expect is around SPX 1550. This would allow for a small correction during Int. iv, which is normal for this bull market. Then new highs for Int. wave v and the conclusion of Major wave 3.


Our 40% probability bearish count suggests this uptrend is Major wave 2. Major wave 1 having completed at the recent SPX 1343 low. For the market to turn bearish this uptrend will need to end within the SPX 1434-1462 inflection range. What would likely follow, since the first downtrend was 132 SPX points, would be a drop near SPX 1267. Then after another counter-trend uptrend, a decline to near SPX 1159 would end Primary A of a new ABC bear market.

Until the SPX/DOW clear the inflection range some hedging is probably a good idea. Medium term support is at the OEW 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots.


Short term support is at SPX 1413/16 and 1402/03, with resistance at 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a slight positive divergence. The short term OEW charts are now negative with the swing level around SPX 1419.


From the SPX 1343 low we have counted five waves up to SPX 1424: (1409-1385-1420-1409-1424). This rally can be either a bullish Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave iii, or a bearish Intermediate wave A of Major wave 2. Next we had a decline to SPX 1398. The bullish count suggests it was Minor wave 2, the bearish count Intermediate wave B.

After the SPX 1398 low the market again rallied in five waves to SPX 1439: (1416-1406-1434-1424-1439). Since this was quite short in comparison to Minor wave 1, and has already overlapped it, we have labeled it Minute wave i of Minor wave 3. Minor wave 1 also had five small waves up to SPX 1409: (1361-1351-1390-1377-1409) which we had labeled Minute wave i of Minor 1. So they look similar from that perspective.


Under the bearish scenario it is not quite as clear. The five wave rally from SPX 1343-1424 was 81 SPX points. After the pullback to SPX 1398, the market has rallied another five waves to 1439, or 41 points. And, it hit within the range of a normal bear market rally. This rally now has a 50% relationship to the first rally. This is an acceptable 5-3-5 zigzag count for the potential Major wave 2. If SPX 1398 is retested, during the current pullback, and then fails to hold support the bearish case increases in probability. However, if SPX 1398 or higher, holds support then we could see a rally back into the inflection range to complete waves 3-4-5 from SPX 1398. It certainly is an important time for the markets as we head into the Holidays!


The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 1.8%. All but Indonesia are uptrending.

The European markets were also mostly higher gaining 1.1%. All indices uptrending.

The Commodity equity group were all higher on the week gaining 1.7%. All but Canada are uptrending.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 0.6% on the week.


Bonds sold off this week as QE 3 was increased, losing 0.9% on the week, and possibly entering another downtrend.

Crude remains in a downtrend but gained 0.9% on the week.

Gold also remains in a downtrend and lost 0.5% on the week.

The USD downtrend continues as the DXY lost 1.0%. The uptrending EURUSD gained 1.8%, and the downtrending JPYUSD lost 1.2%.


A busy week ahead of the Holidays. Monday: the NY FED at 8:30. Tuesday: the NAHB housing index. Wednesday: Housing starts and Building permits. Thursday: Q3 GDP, (est. +2.7%), Existing home sales, the Philly FED, Leading indicators, the FHFA housing index, and weekly Jobless claims. Friday: Personal income/spending, PCE prices, Durable goods orders, Consumer sentiment, and Options expiration. As for the FED, there is one speech scheduled for monday at 11:00 from FED governor Stein on USD funding and Global banks. Best to your weekend, week and Holidays!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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94 Responses to weekend update

  1. Pingback: Risk-Reward Report 12.18.12 | The Risk-Reward Report

  2. rc1269 says:

    it’s a mad chase into the close wityh -div on 60-min and the daily. hmm… would feel better about the rally if we could have closed the gap at least before moving higher. vol collapsed.
    perhaps the market knows something it doesn’t

  3. fibretrace1618 says:

    Resistance to the upside @ 61.8% of 12/12 (1438.59) High and 12/14 (1411.58) Low = “1428.57” Confluence fair with 200% of 4/26/2010 (1219.80) High and 6/28/2010 (1010.91) Low = “1428.69” The 1411 support makes sense with the (20) & (50) on the 60 minute, daily, weekly, and monthly EMA’S @1411

  4. LX says:


    Obvious X wave up from Friday …it science

    The Bears have the same record as the Giants…

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Market up on fiscal cliff deal hopes as Obama & Boehner met today for :45

    Boehner increased tax offering from $800b to $1T over 10yrs, including raising tax rates on the top 2%, but they want $1t in spending cuts in return – a 1:1 ratio, which sucks but it is what it is.

    The sticking point will be the cuts, the republicans have agreed to tax increases, now will the dems agree to medicare eligibility raised from 65 to 67, cuts in medcaid and changes in inflation calcs in SSI? Just on Friday, Pelosi said house dems will not pass any bill that makes cuts or raises the eligibility age on medciare – we shall see….

  6. tommyboys says:

    David Tepper on CNBC. Call volatility down (premium) as everyone is hedging. This results in very little downside potential. Good interviews here – (part one & two)…



  7. nagan says:

    So Bullish or Bearish ?

    • rc1269 says:

      i think we’re still in limbo here. at least, that’s my take. won’t learn anything new about the mkt as long as we’re still in this 1413-1424 pivot range

  8. rc1269 says:

    Morning Tony and team

    Interesting start to the week. AAPL continues to look ugly – I got stopped out at $505 so live to fight another day. if some folks P&F projections on AAPL get filled ($445 is a range that comes to mind) I feel like this rally could really struggle to stay above water. we shall see. best of luck trading this week!

  9. fibretrace1618 says:

    Hey T, I’m sure you have a similar site you use for comprehensive market data, but this site is the best I’ve found in my 10 years, and figured I throw it out there for you or any on this board who might want to use it. The site is very simple and clean (no ads), with all relevant market data and the automated analysis and conclusions of that data. Make sure to look at the drag down menu for whatever market data you want to access. The attached link is the short term, medium term, and long term summary and opinion for the S&P based on the comprehensive technicals illustrated.


  10. glacialspeed says:

    Tony, thanks again for the insight this blog provides. It’s a great help. Quick question: If the S&P falls below 1398, is the bullish count itself likely to change? I see in a previous reply you suggested the bull/bear probabilities would change to about 50/50 below 1398. Much obliged

  11. torehund says:

    Uranium spot has descended from a top 2 or so years ago in two large ABCs. Last ABC was a reversed 5th wave that ended in a steep minor wave 1.Since that wave one plunge, price has started climbing from 43 a pound to 45,5 today.
    After the Japanese election and possible restart of reactors in Japan, spot Uranium could go wild. Additionally Russia will stop dismantlement of any more nukes !
    For some beta get hold of URRE, or any other junior miner. URRE has the most Uranium in the ground, but arent mining die to depressed prices. Other than that there are some issues with the tribal population that a clean up will fix, its all about the Uranium spot price to get some momentum in the comp. To play it safe Camceo a blue chip is an option.

  12. CB says:

    some thoughts on gold, fwiw not sure whether this adds anything new to what you guys already know http://www.e-wavecharts.com/elliott_wave_gold_silver_dec12.htm

  13. timing101 says:

    Thanks Mr. 3000. Gap and go? Futures looking good.
    Am I reading the waves correctly? If minute ii ended at 1411.88, then we are in Minute iii, of Minor 3, of Intermediate iii, of Major 3, of Primary III, of Supercycle 3?

    • torehund says:

      Something I do sense is the rampant pessimism among market participants, even though they have really nothing to go sour about…Irrational thought schemes, give up, this cant work attitude prevails.
      And still many shares are still at all time low or pretty close with pretty descent fundamentals (going into the FUTURE). I tell you one thing, pessimism is as grave as it gets, and especially considering rising GDP, clames descending e.t.c.
      Its time for the market to cheer up, not bite nails and think the world is ending anytime soon.
      Timing: Yes minute iii seems to be subdividing and we are done with the first one, maybe correction of that one ended Friday in an ABC plus some funny stuff(eeeh waves) at the end ! Tony is better at this, lol.

      • torehund says:

        RUT shows a clean ABC decline with a mostly level opposite V with positive divergence, while SP 500 exhibits an ABCDE. That tells me small caps are more ready to run as the end complex has lesser of a decline compared to the distinct DE wave on the SP 500. And small caps has already a pos divergence !
        I use the forex pros future charts.

      • timing101 says:

        I agree, RUT looks stronger than S&P.
        Lots of buyers in RUT at 822-823? It tagged that level 4 times on Thursday & Friday.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Primary III of Cycle [1] of Supercycle 3 …correct

  14. mjtplayer says:


    With the Shanghai and Nikkei indicies looking good, but the USD and Treasuries teetering on large technical breakdowns, it certainly looks as though money is outright leaving the US. With the fiscal cliff 2 weeks away and the debt ceiling debate approaching in Feb, if I were an int’l investor watching the disfunction in our political system, I’d be bringing my money home too. What’s your line-in-the-sand for the S&P before you start favoring the bearish count? Thanks!

  15. torehund says:

    To all you out there that may think Santa is coming with the micro cap goods, and wants some voluptuous insanity to mix with Christmas preparation. PSDV or pSIVIDA an ocular insert device company with approval in most of Europe had a shelf and fell quickly from around 2,9 USD to 1,2 USD in a funny ABC with a very odd and small B wave. Then recouped up to 1,4 and started a reversed 5t wave down to retest 1,2 or there around. Friday the parent comp Alimera had a key reversal up 29 percent (seller of pSIVIDAS device). The revered 5t wave should end in a wave 1 descent but got “bended upwards” on Friday, a sign of strength is lit. I think the bottom is in.

  16. fionamargaret says:

    Very informative weekend analysis – thank you Tony.


  17. torehund says:

    Nikkei has 4 nice divergences to lean on until this straight up move. Lots of resistance areas from 10 000 and to below 12000. If it pans out the way I think it will, and election goes to Conservatives 14 000 is next natural resting place and a descent retrace from 18 000. The zig zag bottoming for AGES has finally come to an end and the bear flag didnt pan out, fortunately. The spike up is just too large for that ugly scenario to play out as it seems. I am happy, as Japan will lift shipping, and nuclear, there are good correlation between shipping/nuclear and the nikkei on a comparative chart, a geared play. Even with BDI going lower Dryship is firming up thanks to Asias ascent.
    BDI made an M formation months ago and thats bull as a shift-sign, with at least some probability, and if BDI soon turns up there will be divergence and probability of a limited recovery. For the small shippers thats like throwing out a life jacket avoiding BK, and some crazy plays may pay big if caught at the right instant. Good weekend to all in here, excellent blog !

  18. budfox9450 says:

    Tony, the Shanghai Index chart, is precise, and a very clear chart – thank you….Have
    a Merry Christmas, and New Year….

  19. conannca says:

    Hi Tony
    I’m trying to understand your new Apple chart update, wonder if you can clarify please. We were in C of P4. But now I’m not sure. My understanding is we are in Wave P4 down at 3 of C. With a 5 wave C down target range of $495 to $464 range soon (Since the $506 looks to fail on Monday). Then a large upside from there to new highs in early 2013. Can you please clarify for me.
    Thanks and have a great weekend.

  20. Pingback: Risk-Reward Weekend Report | The Risk-Reward Report

  21. torehund says:

    I like the Shanghai breakout, run looks pretty decisive…and lifted itself in a run at 4 percent. I like that all these asian countries are lifting themselves together with the US. Optimism is even dragging Europe along. And Japan could retest of lows be over with and shall we call the 3 rd wave in Japan too ? Such a reluctant and drawn out second wave should make for a helluva forceful 3rd if it is just that ! Think of all that multiyear reluctant pessimism unfolding in rampant optimism. Thats fire !!!!!!!!

    • budfox9450 says:

      Torehund – what you have said, could be corret. I tend
      to see the Shanghai index, as making a major low. The
      cover is the CCP leadership change with Mr. Xi, in charge.
      But, thats only my veiw….

      • torehund says:

        Budfox: Seems like japan also will change leadership, a tougher tone is developing like “yes we can “. Lets fire those nuclear-reactors, I am exposed to Uranium, LOL.

  22. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. The DOW Transports are doing well. And with emerging markets doing much better and a weaker dollar the bull could continue if we get past this “fiscal cliff” nonsense.
    Speaking of bull. I wonder when it will all end in D.C.? If some of these clowns in Congress want a Christmas break they better finish up playing games. Real soon. Deal. Or. No deal?

    • CB says:

      Hey Mike, Re: “the clowns” – they need a collective slap on the wrist, don’t they – if ur right there,…just do it , on our behalf 🙂

      • mike7x says:

        Hi CB! I think “they” should lead…or leave. So, I would give them that “slap” except I think they all did leave. At least for the weekend. I guess they do need their rest. They should be back on Monday (some anyway) but there’s no way they finish by next Friday (or Tony’s next Weekend Update). It will be interesting/fun to see if they come back right after Christmas (Dec. 26!) or just punt into the new year. 😉

      • CB says:

        oh, my!!!…what a terrible waste of jet fuel, every weekend in DC is…they should all be sequestered until their job is done 😉

      • mjtplayer says:

        Waste of jet fuel? The President plans to leave for Hawaii for 3 weeks on Monday, if he does that would signal a deal is further off. Round trip to HI on air force 1, now that’s a waste of jet fuel!! Get something done!

      • CB says:

        mjt, that Hawaiian trip is a pretty important hint, it seems & I think Lee mentioned that also a while back…it’s good to know the exact date…thanks both! let’s put Obama on a jetovator, shall we? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xie8TeJJa6s&feature=youtube_gdata
        that’ll save us some big $$.. : )

      • mjtplayer says:

        The latest is that Obama declined the most recent offer by Bohner, which was increased tax rates on income, but not cap gains or dividends, in exchange for entitlement changes: increasing medicare eligibility age to 67 from 65 and changing SSI inflation metrix. So, it doesn’t look like we’re any closer to a deal than we were 2 or 3 weeks ago. If Obama leaves for HI tomorrow as planned, that would signal that serious negotiations have all but stopped.

      • CB says:

        he cannot leave for HI withot a deal…would look so selfish…can’t do stuff like that at the presidential level..public perception is so importand to those guys…so, they get this thing done, and then he leaves… : )

      • CB says:

        and the existense of all those “leaks” which are being quted today is really proof that the negotiations are on-going , behind the scenes..

  23. the monday roadmap with folio details/spread sheets. chart to be added later:

  24. torehund says:

    The uptrend from recent bottom is as the market participants, ambivalent, symmetric length but not a clean ABC, or more likely start of a small 3 rd wave. Market knows how to keep us tiptoeing thats for sure. But even as bluechips like Apple dissapoints, all these small cap breaking out creates breath that has been lacking and these are signs that fundamentals are improving in struggeling sectors. if these breakouts are merely retracements of hughe declines remains to be seen. If they start impulsing after an initial retracement and spiky breakout, that will be as good as it gets, and secure the vitality of this bullmarket.

  25. Cornelius Peterson says:

    Why did the probability of a bear market go from 30% to 40%

    Cornelius “Pete” Peterson
    Retired and Busy
    25 Old Village Rd
    Acton, MA 01720

    978 263 3544

    • The Homeless Daytrader says:

      Hi there Cornelius, Tony answers your question in the same paragraph where he revised the probability: “In recent years these kinds of increases in quantitative easing had fueled fairly substantial rallies. QE 3, however, has produced very small positive market responses. When initially introduced on September 13th, the SPX rallied that day, made an uptrend price high the next, went sideways for a month, and then corrected the 8.9% off the price high. This week’s increase in QE 3 has produced, thus far, even less of a rally. As a result of the market’s non-response to the FED’s doubling down on quantitative easing, we are raising the probability of this alternate count to 40%.”

      • torehund says:

        Could it be that market, after so many Qes starts to doubt that the FEDs interventions will bite yet again in stopping a new deflationary cycle from happening ? Do the cumulative players thought of whats nescessary (austerity) take hold ? Its like jumping to one cliff to another, full speed may not be enough to jump from one cliff to the other, and in facing the doubt one diminishes the speed in order to have the option to stop and not make the jump at all ! if one does the latter and then jump one is sure to end in the canyon.
        FEDs chance in this is to Bazooka all doubts, and prove it works by producing the macro numbers…..and they arent that bad with clames descending. Still market participants think that numbers are artificially created, which makes drag on markets.

      • tony caldaro says:

        It could be the market wants the FED to try something new.
        QE 1 and 2 worked, Operation Twist worked, why another QE?

      • CB says:

        Great update Tony. Thanks!
        When you say :It could be the market wants the FED to try something new.” what kind of new instruments do you mean?

        The rally, so far, perhaps not impressive…but smart money is buying…from “the public,” of course, on all the nonsensical fear …

      • M1 says:

        Buy another $85 bln/month in stocks ? That would be great. =)
        It is only paper after all. At abt 0 cost.

      • The Homeless Daytrader says:

        Hey CB, given the low volume rally, it is more likely that the smart money has been selling to the public, rather than vice versa.

        As to what the market wants, it wants to hear two sweet little words from Uncle Ben: “Strategic default.”

      • CB says:

        Hey THD, I wasn’t just pulling it out of thin air 🙂 …there are some indicators for that ..OBV is one..
        Good point about low volume -it’s been an issue with this managed bull market for quite a while, hasn’t it?…blame this tough market for that…. when the going gets tough…everybody leaves, righ ? 😉

      • CB says:

        that’s interesting Tony (freeing up the reserves)..it involves the toughest aspects of the crisis, though -banks & their willingness to lend, cretitworthiness of borrowers, willingness to borrow based on expected ROI on new projects, all of the things that have been a stumbling block so far-in other words a strong economy would trigger this mechanism on its own, but in a weak economy the money could just end up in another ST speculative run…commodities, gold… that would be inflationary but not necessarily create new employment…which is what we need…we need new profit opportunities where people will want to invest…so, perhaps technology will save us… but what’s the next big thing?…alternative energy? The problem is, it will only succeed when energy prices go up significantly & stay high..and the government is working hard not to let it happen….maybe medicine, biotech?

        • tony caldaro says:

          CB, by next decade we will be exporting energy.
          We are the Saudia Arabia of Natural Gas.
          In order for this Secular to end the last downturn has to come sometime.
          Y2K started it, Mayan 2012 could end it.

      • CB says:

        Hmm.. So, nat gas is a big deal….well, we’ve heard it here first -thanks Tony! And who is the new Prince Al Waleed? =) ) please step forward, your royal highness….
        Tony, good thing this mayan thing is gonna be over in a few days -the end of the world (as we know it =) , out with the old, in with the new..it’s already started in the last 10 years.. there is no going back to the old ways…new exciting future… I like it =)

      • CB says:

        =) Oh TBP, ur so money…and now you want to privatize our water too, huh?

      • CB says:

        Tony, if you live in the countryside, a private well must be a nice status symbol… get it! =) your water will be free after the whole thing has been amortized..obviously I know nothing about countryside living…

      • CB says:

        good 1, Tony..

  26. rolandu11 says:

    Thanks Tony, very interesting update.

    My long-term volume Indi is near, but still over the 0-line. A break would not be badly as long as we get no negativ divergence.

    Apple broke a important uptrend this week, very negativ. But I have something to ponder on for the bears (The bulls have to be cautious). This Indicator displays very good divergences on a weekly basis. It´s just a divergence (Apple can more fall).


  27. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony. Thanks for this very impressive weekend update !!
    Honestly, I see quite difficult for a bear market to unfold at this time with the Fed pumping $85 Bln/month. Only something bigger/stronger than the Fed could derail the markets. That looks unlikely.
    Have a great weekend

    • mjtplayer says:

      How about a loss of faith in the USD or US Treasuries? Watch the long end of the curve, if rates begin moving-up quickly on inflation expectations, then QE3/4 is backfiring and the Fed will have to choose either: 1) stop printing money to bring rates/inflation expectations back down or 2) live with higher rates which significantly increases the interest payments on US debt – making the budget deficit even worse.

      Look at a 1yr chart of the USD, certanily looks like a big “head and shoulders” pattern, with a test of the 2008 lows if the neckline is broken around 78-ish.

  28. alexhartley1 says:

    Thank you for the report Tony. You really couldn’t make it any clearer and I appreciate that immensely. Cheers, Alex

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