wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower low – then rally, DOW +83

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, then were about flat heading into the open. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 118K vs 158K, Productivity was reported higher : +2.9% vs +1.9% at 8:30. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1407, bounced to 1411 in the first few minutes, then headed lower. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported positive: +0.8% vs +4.8%, and ISM services were reported higher: 54.7 vs 54.2. At 11:00 the pullback hit a new low at SPX 1398, was nearly extremely oversold short term, and then started to rally. At 12:30 the SPX hit resistance at 1416, pulled back to 1411 by 2:00, then tried to rally again. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1415, and then pulled back to close at 1409.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude lost 60 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets before the open, then weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

The market rallied overnight, but only bounced after the open before heading to a new pullback low at SPX 1398. After that the market had its best rally since the recent SPX 1424 high. Rising to resistance at SPX 1416 before pulling back into the close. This morning we labeled the SPX 1398 low as a tentative Minute wave A, and this afternoon we labeled the 1416 high as a tentative Minute wave B. We would expect the last wave down of this pullback, Minute wave C, to be underway now. Should the market rally above 1416, SPX 1398 may have been the Minor wave 2 low. If not, and the market continues its pullback, we should see Minor wave 2 bottom within the OEW 1386 pivot range.

Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and 1422/27. Short term momentum rose from quite oversold to nearly overbought, before ending the day at neutral. The short term OEW charts dipped negative then turned positive again with the swing level still at SPX 1407. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market approaching inflection point


About tony caldaro

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47 Responses to wednesday update

  1. rc1269 says:

    i’m a little concerned that everybody is looking at the same bullish ascending triangle pattern forming and yet we still can’t/don’t break out. hope today’s close isn’t a total pump fake, false breakout indicator.

  2. H D says:

    argue a 4 drives pattern.????. they got me today.

    • CB says:

      😆 yeah that’s the right approach HD!! and don’t get dicouraged!!..ever since Lee popped that Dom Perignon, the force has been with you. 🙂

  3. rc1269 says:

    starting to feel like this market desperately wants a santa clause rally

  4. gary61b says:

    Tony, spx 60 above 1416 and new move up, correction complete at 1398, or below 1405 and c wave still in tact.

  5. H D says:

    U could argue 3 drives pattern DOW 60 min.

  6. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, you mentioned expecting SLV around 32 if I understood correctly. Yesterday it hit around 31.5. Do you think SLV will not go much further down, even if gold is expected to hit 1631-1650 before resuming uptrend?

  7. rc1269 says:

    hmm… treasuries are up, gold is down, crude is down, copper is down, nat gas is down, stocks are… up? interesting

  8. tony caldaro says:

    SPX parameters tighten: 1406 – 1416
    higher uptrend resumes
    lower pullback continues

  9. Tony, do you think this AAPL action goes well with the intermediate iii thesis?

  10. Long case in crude and SPX still alive but critically injured..Silver charts looking interesting in backdrop of the gold chart

  11. robslob64 says:

    Hey Tony,
    I noticed you mentioned AAPL low around 550 and we got that and then some.

    Is AAPL still “downtrending” or “bottoming” ?

  12. mjtplayer says:

    Hi Tony,

    Are you technicals in the gold market leaning towards an A wave instead of int ii yet? Looking more like A down to 1,672, B up to 1,755 (.618 retrace of A) and now in the C wave down to 1,625ish where A=C, also the highs of the summer consolidation.


  13. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    I see the same pattern than three weeks ago. The blue chips hitting my stop level and my short positions in the tech sector doing well. We know what happened then.
    I am ready to reload my 75% short position in the blue chip as soon as tomorow at the open.
    We may have something different unfolding.

  14. CB says:

    thanks Tony. If you can, how do you break down those a and b waves on 60 min into smaller waves (structure) …or ma I asking too much. TIA?

  15. deltastrikejj says:

    not sure how much this matters in the short term but just thought it was interesting that the recent SPX highs had a higher RSI reading than the 1470 highs back in early Oct.

  16. budfox9450 says:

    U.S. stock market, is acting like my Garmin – takes me all over the place to get
    from an A point, to B. Take it 1386 +/- 7 is stil your target ?

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