friday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +4

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower, then higher overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported flat +0.0% vs +0.4%, Personal spending was reported lower: -0.2% vs +0.8%, and PCE prices were reported higher: +0.1% vs +0.1%. The market opened lower at SPX 1414, then tried to rally. The SPX had closed at 1416 yesterday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 50.4 vs 49.9. The bounce ended around 10:00 at SPX 1418, yesterday’s secondary double top high. The market then pulled back to 1412 by 11:30, bounced to 1416 by 2:30, then declined to 1412 again by 3:00. After that there was a sharp rally to SPX 1419 heading into the close, which was somewhat sold and the market closed at 1416. Where it began the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.02%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rose 80 cents, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Last night the FED reported the Monetary base declined: $2.651 tln vs $2.661 tln. Today the WLEI was reported lower again: 53.4% vs 53.8%.

The market opened slightly lower today, after hitting a new rally high at SPX 1420 yesterday. After a couple of attempts to rally, the market basically consolidated while staying within a seven point trading range for the day. While this occurred the short term overbought condition worked itself back to neutral. The recent action from SPX 1385 looks like it could be Minute waves i (1420) and ii (1409) of Minor 3. Or if it persists for a couple of days, Minor 3 (1420) and Minor 4 (1409), with Minor 5 to come.

Short term support remains at SPX 1413/16 and 1402/03, with resistance at SPX 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum spent most of the day around neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the with swing level now around SPX 1401. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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1 Response to friday update

  1. torehund says:

    Looking good macro wise and if beaten down sectors can improve and high flying sectors recoup some losses indexes will respond accordingly. Getting China and Japan back on track is vital and we can at least hope they are on the mend.
    Fed has to rise all sectors to get banks off the enormous paper losses that for example shipping and solar have incurred. Getting banks free of taking losses is FEDs aim and I dont think they will give up until stuff is more or less inflated to pre 2007 levels, then its time to milk through higher taxes and interest rates once more.


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