thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening takes market higher, DOW +37

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.2% as well. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was revised higher: +2.7% vs +2.0%, and weekly Jobless claims were lower: 393K vs 410K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1415 and continued higher until reaching 1420 by 10:00. The market had closed at SPX 1410 yesterday. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +5.2% vs +0.3%. The market then quickly pulled back to SPX 1413, then rallied to 1418 by 11:00. The next pullback took the SPX to 1409 by 11:30. Then the market rebounded again. After a bounce to SPX 1418 by 2:00, the market pulled back to 1413 again by 3:30, then bounced into a 1416 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold added $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in New home prices: $278.9K vs $291.4K. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30, then the Chicago PMI at 9:45. Also tomorrow a speech from FED governor Stein after the close.

The market gapped up at the open today to a new rally high, then continued higher to SPX 1420. After that we had a decent pullback to SPX 1409, and then the market tried to rally again. We can now count five waves up from SPX 1343: 1361-1351-1390-1377-1409. Then a notable decline to SPX 1385. And now, what appears to be another five waves in progress from SPX 1385: 1420-1409-. This looks to be the most obvious count.

Short term support is now at SPX 1413/16 and 1402/03, with resistance at 1422/27 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite overbought early, then vacillated around overbought for the rest of the day. The short term OEW charts remain positive, with the swing level now around SPX 1399. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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33 Responses to thursday update

  1. Jeff (Gundlach) is the latest Guru to believe that the sky is going to fall on our heads….Long live the doomers!..Thank you for making the biggest bull market of our adult lives happen ( was below drinking age in 2000 )


    • CB says:

      thanks, MI -interesting piece on him in Bloomberg 2day… well, the doomers would be right every single time but for the existence of the Fed…that’s why he is advocating certain things…on the other hand he hmiself admits that the BOJ will need to do more printing…so he basically agrees with the philosophy behind the Fed…liked that part about how they found the art crooks cuz of their google search.. : )
      lucky guy he can just sit on his art collection and wait things out…


    • piazzi says:

      a couple of moving averages and a straight ruler added to common sense and simple money management rules have done, time and time again, done much more wonders than the collective lot of all gurus and guru-wannabes

      whenever I find myself being swayed away from facts and numbers by someone’s (myself included) opinion, I pinch myself to remember than only the delusional knows the future


  2. piazzi says:

    Tony says: “Republicans usually appear after a Secular bear cycle is over.”

    any update to your saeculum and turning projections?


  3. today – thursday- CWTR in the low risk folio was up 17.66%. the folio itself was up by 2.20% while its IWM benchmark was up by 1.14% today.


  4. thanks your posts have been helping me and my partner so much.

    not sure what to think right now. I thought the market was about to crash down hard. But the guy from thinks we are setting up for an xmas rally and I love to listen to him as he has had some insanely accurate calls over the last few months!


  5. all folios beat their respective benchmark indices today, yet the new high risk folio has some catching up to do; the fact that it is less diversified with only ten stocks i’m sure has something to do with it.


  6. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.


  7. pooch77 says:

    Hmm is it bullish when futures are down until A.H. markets close.Then they have all night to move back up.Seems to be pattern lately


  8. pooch77 says:

    Tony wave 3 starting at 1409 is biggest wave possibly 1344?


  9. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony.


  10. CB says:

    thanks Tony. Twiiter guys saying that Boehner is holding SPX calls, and Reid is holding puts…j/k


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