SHORT TERM: US markets closed, DOW (YM) +34
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were traded while the foreign markets were open. At the end of the session the SPX (ES) was +3.25, and the NDX (NQ) was +4.00. Bonds rose 1 tick, Crude lost 30 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. US cash markets reopen on friday for an abbreviated session.
Perusing the charts. The SPX has declined from 1475/71 to 1343 during Sept/Oct to Nov. At the recent low the correction was 8.9%, retraced 61.8% of the previous uptrend, and Minor C was 2.618 Minor A. During the entire decline the maximum rallies were 40 points, (Minor B), and 38 points, (Minute B), respectively. This fits within the parameters for the typical wave 2 corrections during this bull market.
Since that 1343 low the SPX has rallied 48 points, the biggest rally since Sept, in what appears to be a five wave structure. Also, this initial rally may not be over yet, since the SPX closed at the high of the 1343-1391 rally on wednesday. These positive developments suggest we should now be in a new uptrend. Should this indeed be the situation the most important upcoming resistance levels are the OEW 1440 pivot range and SPX 1463/64. An uptrend failure within this range would suggest we are in a bear market. An uptrend to new highs would suggest the bull market, as projected, continues. The bull/bear inflection point continues. Happy Thanksgiving!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed
LONG TERM: bull market