wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market makes new rally high, DOW +48

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened lower, but gained 0.2%. US index futures were flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 410K vs 439K. The market opened unchanged from yesterday’s SPX 1388 close. In the first few minutes the market rallied to SPX 1391, then started to pullback. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 82.7 vs 84.9, but Leading indicators were reported positive again: +0.2% vs +0.6%. By 10:30 the market had pulled back to SPX 1386, and then it started to work its way higher again. For the rest of the day the market stayed within the opening hour range, closing at the SPX 1391 high.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude gained 90 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 53.8% vs 54.4%.  Tomorrow is the Thanksgiving holiday in the States. Markets will reopen on friday.

The market opened flat, then rallied to a higher high at SPX 1391. This should be the fifth wave up from SPX 1343: 1361-1351-1390-1377-1391. The rally off the low looks impulsive and may be the beginning of a new uptrend. When this fifth wave, from SPX 1377, concludes we should get a good idea of the potential pullback level. Currently this looks to be either the OEW 1363 or 1372 pivot range. This generally depends on the length of the fifth wave in relation to the first wave: if longer a smaller pullback, if shorter a larger pullback.

Short term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1396/98 and 1402/03. Short term momentum is currently displaying a negative divergence at today’s high. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now at SPX 1381. Enjoy the Holiday!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably over

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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19 Responses to wednesday update

  1. tommytorquemada says:

    Tony, just a note from a novice who started lurking a few weeks ago. I appreciate the information and knowledge that you and the regulars here share. I suspect that there are many others like me who are benefiting from your posts, but who don’t feel qualified to jump into the discussions ourselves. Thanks for what you all do.

  2. The Homeless Daytrader says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to all, with a special prayer of thanks for you Tony, and all of those who make this blog a most welcoming community.

  3. ibbg7 says:

    Terminology question: Define or explain, please
    “swing point”
    I think I understand “support” and “resistance”.


  4. torehund says:

    MArket is doing what I thought, just ridding itself of overbought through internal rotation, bad for the shorts and good for the longs.

  5. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!

  6. pas1968 says:


    Sorry to bother you with maybe another silly question.

    In relation to shanghai, I might be confused in relation to what you previously said.

    Are you looking for a ‘5’ bottom before ‘medium term’ uptrend?
    If no, what your anticipated labeling for an intermediate term bottom?


  7. valunvstr says:

    Possible IHS forming. If the market falls back to the 1370’s it will form a right shoulder. If it then takes out 1390ish it will take out the neck line and target 1435ish.

  8. pas1968 says:


    Sorry to bother you with what might be a silly question.

    What price action are you now looking for to say in ‘medium term’ downtrend is over or in uptrend?


  9. fionamargaret says:

    Good stuff Tony – but let’s forget about negative divergences.
    RIMM is well on its way to $90, FB is rising , and talking about rising, what happened to lovers of gluten free buns LULU. Time for appreciation.
    GMCR gives results on tuesday, which may require a strong cup of coffee, but I bought it and need to do well.
    (how crazy is it to long TESLA and short GMCR – maybe both are great).

    Be careful all, enjoy, and give some of yourself to somebody who needs the care.

      • fionamargaret says:


        Guys, instead of thinking “the four horseman’, maybe go with ponies.
        Let AAPL and GOOG find the floor. (kind of like the Christmas Party), but that doesn’t mean we can’t have fun and take back our market from the headlines.
        YHOO, QCOM, and CRM look all dressed up and ready to dance. (at least I thought that when I bought them today).

        Ben, don’t just buy bonds, extend your ideas to include ETF’s, Reits and Futures.
        You’ll be glad you did, and we’ll love you for it.

  10. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    It was a quite disapointing day for my bullish case. So, I am still 150% short.
    Happy thanksgiving.
    See you on friday

  11. ronini3 says:

    Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

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