SHORT TERM: market makes new rally high, DOW +48
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened lower, but gained 0.2%. US index futures were flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 410K vs 439K. The market opened unchanged from yesterday’s SPX 1388 close. In the first few minutes the market rallied to SPX 1391, then started to pullback. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 82.7 vs 84.9, but Leading indicators were reported positive again: +0.2% vs +0.6%. By 10:30 the market had pulled back to SPX 1386, and then it started to work its way higher again. For the rest of the day the market stayed within the opening hour range, closing at the SPX 1391 high.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude gained 90 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 53.8% vs 54.4%. Tomorrow is the Thanksgiving holiday in the States. Markets will reopen on friday.
The market opened flat, then rallied to a higher high at SPX 1391. This should be the fifth wave up from SPX 1343: 1361-1351-1390-1377-1391. The rally off the low looks impulsive and may be the beginning of a new uptrend. When this fifth wave, from SPX 1377, concludes we should get a good idea of the potential pullback level. Currently this looks to be either the OEW 1363 or 1372 pivot range. This generally depends on the length of the fifth wave in relation to the first wave: if longer a smaller pullback, if shorter a larger pullback.
Short term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1396/98 and 1402/03. Short term momentum is currently displaying a negative divergence at today’s high. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now at SPX 1381. Enjoy the Holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably over
LONG TERM: bull market