SHORT TERM: new downtrend low then a rally, DOW +46
At yesterday’s close the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121115a.htm. Asian markets gained 0.5% overnight. Europe opened lower and lost 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.4% vs +0.4%. The market opened slightly higher, hitting SPX 1355 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1353 yesterday. Soon after, the market started to pullback. At 10:00 the SPX hit 1345, bounced to 1351 by 10:30, then hit 1343 at 11:30. The market then started to rally. At 12:30 the SPX had rallied 18 points to 1361. The market then pulled back to SPX 1351 by 2:30, before rallying to 1362 by 3:30. A pullback into the close ended the week at SPX 1360.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rallied $1.20, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.4% vs 55.1%. Medium term support remains at the OEW 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots.
The market continued to decline today until about 11:30. At the SPX 1343 low the market had reached our worse case correction level, our fibonacci/retracement levels, and an 8.9% correction. After that low the market rallied to a higher-high, after a lower-low, for the first time this month. This could be an important low. More on this, and other views, in the weekend update.
Short term support remains at SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum finally rose off that positive divergence, ending the day above neutral. The short term OEW charts are still negative with the swing level at SPX 1375. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend new low at SPX 1343
LONG TERM: bull market