monday update

SHORT TERM: market opens higher and holds, DOW unchanged

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher, but lost 0.1%. US undex futures were higher overnight and the market opened at SPX 1382. The SPX had closed at 1380 on friday. In the opening minutes the SPX bounced to 1385 and then began to pullback. The pullback lasted until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1378, and then started to rally. Around 1:30 the SPX hit 1385 again, pulled back this time to 1379, and then just bounced around in a three point range to close at SPX 1380.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds were flat, Crude slipped 45 cents, Gold slid $4, and the USD was slightly higher. Medium term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Tomorrow: the Budget deficit at 2:00, then FED vice chair Yellen gives a speech at 3:30.

The market opened higher today, ran into resistance at the OEW 1386 pivot, (1385), then pulled back to the OEW 1372 pivot, (1377), before rallying back to the 1386 pivot again (1385). Today’s action was somewhat similar to friday’s, which remained within the 1372 to 1386 pivots as well. But friday opened lower, at SPX 1372 then rallied to 1391, and today was an inside day. Also it looked like volume was quite light on this Veterans Day holiday. SPX 1372 and SPX 1391 now appear to be the market parameters for the next short term move: above – higher, below – lower.

Short term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1396/98. Short term momentum spent most of the day around neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the swing level now around SPX 1399. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM  TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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48 Responses to monday update

  1. H D says:

    99% retrace! “Live action” in my best turtleman voice.

  2. aktiesnack says:

    SELL OF >> what about this? “@BergenCapital hearing rest of AIG gets done tonight by govt. Reason for sell off.” or Greece Postpones Planned Transit Fare Increase: Kathimerini.

  3. pbnj123 says:

    I know as soon as I sell – it will rip since it fell apart right after I got long….

  4. fibretrace1618 says:

    T-Man, I have some very disturbing news to report. Reuters 3:34EST….Kvilia finds Grossman publication an easy read and devours it in (wait for it) 15 minutes. I’ll have to give a stunned and well deserved Boooyah to the mighty Kvillia!!

  5. M1 says:

    Hi Tony, the market looks like it knows something that we don’t. And for sure it is not the fiscal cliff.
    Any rumor on the street ?

  6. 1345 pivot needs to hold or all hell breaks down…. watching MACD signal, which has NOT yet confirmed a low

  7. pbnj123 says:

    Tony – 1386 pivot cleared but we are not out of the woods yet – correct?
    What do see up next?
    Thank you

  8. torehund says:

    Some of the stocks I am looking at have either had a key reversal like DNDN or are seemingly bottoming at ridiculous valuations like ARWR. These are small cap pharmas and are trading dirt cheap by any means. Fiscal cliff can only be vindicated by asset inflation, and not by inducing heavy taxation and quenching the real estate market. FED knows that, China, japan knows that, its the only solution, the other is an economic depression of unknown consequences
    So at this time there arent any lemons to squeeze, so FED better get it right inflating or we will all end in the dumpsters, one way or the other. Being an inflection point FED has the means to pump market by their liquidity infusions, so lets see what happens..

    • tommyboys says:

      Concur 1000%.

    • torehund says:

      In many stocks I see a double 5 wave decline (after a completed 4th wave) after a larger 5th wave decline of more than a years duration. This just have to retrace in abc fashion at least. Of cours ABC retracements in many stocks at the sime time will spike indexes and isnt necessarily good long term as ABCs has a tendency to retrace or on the positive note make even larger ABCs, lol. But something is bound to happen… guess.
      Example is URRE after 80 cent spike a few months ago(wave 4 of a longer decline) I see a double five decline, and expect a rise.

    • fibretrace1618 says:

      At this point, I believe whatever the Fed does has already been priced in. The market is essentially immune to the printing presses at this point, and has already given asset prices all the air they are going to get. In the long run, the sooner this forest burns down the better. All the Fed is accomplishing at this point, is creating a bigger fire to put out when the proverbial sh^t hits the fan. As it stands today it’s already an Armageddon, if they keep this bubble floating much longer, it will be something I don’t think many could survive. It is the inevitable outcome, there is no scenario where this roughly $200 Trillion marker doesn’t have to be paid and we all know there is no way it can be paid.

  9. ronini3 says:

    Bob Janjuah, “A combo of ECB QE and fiscal/debt ceiling fudges in the US – perhaps also complimented by a short-lived centrally planned but debt fuelled and ultimately wasteful China uptick – could even cause a parabolic spike powerful enough to take S&P – briefly – into the 1500s, before resuming the longer-term march over the rest of 2013 and 2014 to the 800s.”

  10. budfox9450 says:

    Good Morning: The SP500 pattern, alone. Looking very positive, with the new internal
    low in place. We are now moving into the resistance of 1386 pivot. Would like to see
    the NDX/QQQ (either) begin to see similar strength. But, the 60min SP500 RSI5
    pattern is one that portends a positive outcome….The FAGIX fund, is one of my
    market timer tools, The BoYu indicator, on a sell signal as of last evening. I’am waiting
    for a reversal, and Buy, before I go long…..Off Topic. Tony, Bearish for 6 years? what
    was that? Maybe a point of humor?…Bud

  11. fibretrace1618 says:

    Support at the May 2, 2011 High (1370.58) and 50% retrace (1370.63) of 6/2012 low & 9/2012 High?

  12. pbnj123 says:

    Good morning Tony
    It will be interesting to see if the divergences hold up this morning – I hope anyway.

  13. fibretrace1618 says:

    By the way, I almost went into a permanent catatonic state trying to comprehend that Grossman publication. Lasted 6 hours and deleted it from my hard drive for my own sanity and self preservation.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Have known Tony C. for about six years.
      Has been bearish the entire time: EWI camp style bearish.

      • fibretrace1618 says:

        See experienced, highly intelligent traders rendered worthless because of the all powerful bias/emotions and their inability to accept the price the market gives you, as opposed to where your bias tells you where it should be.

  14. mjtplayer says:


    Confirmed H&S pattern on the S&P? Downside projection is 1,330

  15. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    My vote is: “I don’t know”. =)
    Yes, I am still 150% short and watching that trendline support on the dow chart

  16. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! I’m gonna vote “above –> higher”. I think the semis (SOX/SMH) may be getting ready to break out of a long-forming triangle/wedge, to the upside. If so, the semis should lead the techs, NAZ and the market to those new highs. (At least that’s my story, for now.) Gold looks good also.

  17. CB says:

    thanks Tony
    if $vix touches 16, that would be something…

    • fibretrace1618 says:

      Astro, I’m just wondering why you’re posting material dated 10 plus months ago. I find your work interesting and you can definitely learn from data in the past, I’m just curious what it is I’m supposed to be deriving from this particular information, as I’m not familiar with this type of analysis.


      • astrofibo says:

        I am trying to show the correlation with the Sp500…
        Longitude Speed and Declination Speed of 0 Neptune were a good indicator in the past for a reversal…

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