SHORT TERM: volatile session, DOW +4
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were substantially lower overnight, then rebounded when the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121109a.htm. At 8:30 Export (+0.2% vs +0.7%) and Import prices (+0.3% vs +0.2%) were reported higher. The market opened lower at SPX 1374, dipped to 1373, and then started to rally. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported at a five year high: 84.9 vs 82.6, and Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +1.1% vs +0.5%. At 10:30 FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20121109a.htm. Then at 12:00 the FED made this release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121109b.htm. The market continued to rally until about 12:30 when the SPX hit 1391. At 1:00 President Obama spoke about the pending Fiscal Cliff. By 1:30 the SPX was trading at 1379. It then tried to rally again. By 2:30 the SPX had rallied to 1388, but headed lower again. At 3:30 the SPX retested 1379, bounced to 1385, then ended the week at 1380.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.00, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 55.1% vs 55.9%.
The market opened lower today, made a new downtrend low at SPX 1373, (the 1372 pivot range), then rallied to 1391, (the 1386 pivot range). The market then pulled back to SPX 1379, rallied to 1388, and retested of 1379, (all within the 1386 pivot range). The most noticable technical on the day was that we can now count five waves down from the early November SPX 1434 high. More on this in the weekend report.
Short term support remains at the OEW 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1396/98. Short term momentum bounced to neutral today, after being extremely oversold, then ended the day near oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the swing level now SPX 1404. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend makes new low
LONG TERM: bull market