SHORT TERM: market rallies on election day, DOW +133
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1420. The SPX had closed at 1417 yesterday. As the election polls continued to open across the US the SPX rallied to 1424 by 10:00, pulled back to 1420 by 10:30, then resumed its rally. Around noon the SPX hit 1433, and then began to pullback. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1427, then ended the day at 1428.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude gained $2.70, Gold rallied $31, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the Election results, then Consumer credit at 3:00.
The market opened higher today and continued to rally. Around noon the SPX challenged friday’s 1434 high, when reaching 1433, then pulled back. Again, just like thursday/friday of last week, the market appears to be signalling it wants to go higher. Yet, we still see the potential for one more sizeable pullback to align the major indices for the next uptrend.
Should the SPX break through the recent highs, reaching the OEW 1440 pivot, the pullback is not likely to occur. Should the market roll over from today’s high, or a bit higher tomorrow, then the downtrend is likely to bottom in the next few days. Either way, the next uptrend should be underway soon.
Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, witth resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today, then tailed off some. The short term OEW charts turned positive right after the open, with the swing level now around SPX 1422. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bull market
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Volume profile ESZ2 1407.50, *1404 HDIVOT, round numbers (1400) game the floor plays. Check out the close. I have 2 o clock feeling….. have a great eve all.
u 2 HD
Tony – sorry for all the question – I promise I will make this the last – today anyway ;-)
With the pull back today are the three indices aligned now as needed in your previous posts for potential completion of down trend and able to now move higher?
Thank you
Cheers
Certainly looks that way.
Think you’ll enjoy the update
http://scharts.co/PAPVI5
NAZ and DOW brokedown its trend line support. MID still holding.
“scharts” :lol: hey M1 FYI I can’t see any count or TL’s on ur charts?
Do you still have the same numbers than those suggested in your weekend update, Tony ?
” First at the OEW 1386 pivot range, (1379-1393), wave C = 1.618 wave A and represents a 38.2% retracement of Intermediate wave i. Next is the OEW 1363 pivot range, (1356-1370), which represents a 50% retracement. Then SPX 1345/46 which represents a 61.8% retracement, and where wave C = 2.618 wave A.”
Exactamente … nothing has changed except we hit 1386
Quick question for Tony regarding OEW. I am quite familiar with ending diagonals but not as much with leading diagonals. Are there leading diagonals in OEW and would it be possible to count wave 1 as 1267-1363. Then 2 as (A-E) 1309. 1375, 1325, 1380, and then 2 ending at 1329? Then wave 3 up to 1475 and the current action as wave 4? Just wondering about the potential for leading diagonals in OEW. Muchas gracias.
I guess that would be awfully steep for a wave 4 retracement but still curious as to your thoughts on leading diagonals in OEW.
That would be quite an odd diagonal
Appreciate your input Tony!
Did anyone else notice that the low of the day for the Dow (12876) was the high from 5/2/11 as well as the gap close from early-August? Darn close to a 50% retracement of the entire move up from June low as well. SPX holding up a bit better than the Dow as the same levels there are 1365-1371.
NIce observation…
Thank you Ryan – interesting.
Nice RP! HWB on the DOW and some +D. guess the pros r watching the 1403 low for overlap or 4-5 left in the C wave. GL and great blog today TONY!
HD,
Monday was so quiet.
Should have known …
Ryan
Good observations
Tony – regarding divergences on the daily charts – does there need to be more than one days trading in order for it to to be marked and represented?
Thank you
PB
Normally, unless there is a quick reversal
Tony, any new downside target for aapl? breached 567
TD
APPL has a +div on the hourly and daily at today’s low.
If it doesn’t hold $544 looks to be next, then $518.
just had a somewhat weak treasury auction; timing coincided with the little pop in stox
That’s all I got
ES got it’s 10 handle from the low.
CL well its CL ..great job homeless day trader on the trend.
Life has caught up to my family like it does to everybody’s eventually.
We had a great run ! I’ll see u guys soon !
Get well TC !
Take care Lee
Take care
Take care Lee. Hope all is well with you & ur family. Hey, stop by whenever you want us to cheer you up or when you need someone real bad – cuz we’re real bad, as you know :P & thanks for the heads up on the markets + all the fun+ for ur kind words re:TC. TC’s middle name seems to be ‘brain’s electrical circuit’s that are sensitive to some planetary heavyweights, so he’s doing fine until he suddenly isn’t, so I am bracing myself for a couple of total eclipses this month. Breathe, just breathe, is all one can do sometimes.
Tony hit the pivot at 1388,up 10 points,think we bottomed?
depends on what is next
Gold intermediate cycle low window
Aug-27-Nov 5
S&P intermediate cycle low window
Oct 22-Dec 3
thx Piazzi
EMA 34 weekly SPX on Tonys chart @ 1387 ish
1386 is a support pivot
yes sir
Nice call on the VIX picking up last month.. It has come to pass fo sho
7.4 earthquake reported just offshore of #Guatemala
I just trade em and trail em..sometimes I make money sometimes I don’t
But I have to know where my outs are for a loss at all times.
I am truly a hack trader
let’s test 1400
This is HD and I approve this meesage. The greatest trades often fly in the face of recent market activity! Mind the 10-12 handle bots, 1388-1398
ASTRO Update Venus 180 Uranus
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/11/astro-venus-180-uranus-2010-11-12.html
U nailed it astrofibo
Thanks…
Its that time again
Q infinity and beyond !
X mass in November
Lee you’re not bullish are you ?
Yes
Isn’t everybody now ? :)
Tony
Does Dow at 12933 satisfy your requirement for a lower low that you had mentioned some time back was needed to start the next wave up.
Best to all
Dave
Dave,
Wait for the SPX to rally at least 10 points
Clients want to know their tax exposure, especially at the state level. So basically want to know scenarios, if they realize 1 or 2 million in gains. Same goes for property.
My clients are retail investors, and they are not selling in droves just yet. especially not today.
thx BD … good info
Well that wasn’t that bad .. U guys have been waiting for this
expect some pops now
Thanks R C
Hey C B
Hey Lee, great to have U back!
Just in time for 1386 pivot time !
Thx
and some apple sauce :))
financials getting obliterated today
RC guess who will be on the Senate Banking committee soon?
The Banksters best friend: Liz Warren ;)
ESZ 1496/97 is open to a test
1396/97 that is..
Tony – looks like we might be getting those divergences you were mentioning the other day.
The DOW on the daily and 60 minute look close – SPX not there yet
agree, we noted that in the forum
Forum?
I take it there is a place other than here on this board that you communicate with your prior (and current) OEW students in the “forum”?
Just asking as I have been curious about that for some time now.
Thank you
Cheers
PB,
Correct. Private forum, students only.
there’s ur *1404, 90 points ES 3 days of massive swings.
VOL is just letting you know it’s back
There’s the 567 level in AAPL you mentioned Tony. Got long here.
GL
aapl 567 *
Cramer sez sell now
Why?? Can u elaborate on what he said?
http://macdailynews.com/2012/11/04/jim-cramer-recommends-apple-aapl-a-strong-buy/
cutting his virtual/charitable losses
CL .618 yes high weeks globex low
@86.19
S1 86.13
Circus Maximus ES
Lee,
Looks like last thursday/friday all over again
Hey amigo- long time. :mrgreen:
gentleman !
Hey H D !
cramer says sell might be about time to buy then
welcome back Lee.
Investors determined this morning in selling long term capital gains in advance of a raise in capital gains rates. Phones ringing off the hook.
thanks BD
thanks bdoalex. Hmm, what are the chances that they’ll be calling back in the afternoon wanting to buy again…good for you guys…2x the usual biz volume : )
Tony 1395-1400 low then turn higher?
Pooch makes sense
Thanks Tony
In the short term CMF is having a bullish divergence and the turtle trader 20 & 50 dema are still in a bullish configuration. After a double macd bearkiss and the macd now below zero: short term uptrend has got to resume. After that….
http://scharts.co/U88WwW
thx Rob
http://scharts.co/PAPVI5
http://scharts.co/X4Pmpb
Thanks, Tony.
Not yet. I am not so confident in your bullish short term scenario yet. And I am still 150% short.
Same charts, same ideas for the moment.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=120&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p90034224149&a=281755053&r=1352246556490
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=M&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&i=p28729382407&a=261204249&r=1352246869942