tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market rallies on election day, DOW +133

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1420. The SPX had closed at 1417 yesterday. As the election polls continued to open across the US the SPX rallied to 1424 by 10:00, pulled back to 1420 by 10:30, then resumed its rally. Around noon the SPX hit 1433, and then began to pullback. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1427, then ended the day at 1428.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 17 ticks, Crude gained $2.70, Gold rallied $31, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the Election results, then Consumer credit at 3:00.

The market opened higher today and continued to rally. Around noon the SPX challenged  friday’s 1434 high, when reaching 1433, then pulled back. Again, just like thursday/friday of last week, the market appears to be signalling it wants to go higher. Yet, we still see the potential for one more sizeable pullback to align the major indices for the next uptrend.

Should the SPX break through the recent highs, reaching the OEW 1440 pivot, the pullback is not likely to occur. Should the market roll over from today’s high, or a bit higher tomorrow, then the downtrend is likely to bottom in the next few days. Either way, the next uptrend should be underway soon.

Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, witth resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today, then tailed off some. The short term OEW charts turned positive right after the open, with the swing level now around SPX 1422. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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84 Responses to tuesday update

  1. Pingback: AIG: Weely trend = Bullish | Wall Street Stocks

  2. H D says:

    Volume profile ESZ2 1407.50, *1404 HDIVOT, round numbers (1400) game the floor plays. Check out the close. I have 2 o clock feeling….. have a great eve all.

  3. pbnj123 says:

    Tony – sorry for all the question – I promise I will make this the last – today anyway 😉
    With the pull back today are the three indices aligned now as needed in your previous posts for potential completion of down trend and able to now move higher?
    Thank you

  4. M1 says:

    NAZ and DOW brokedown its trend line support. MID still holding.

  5. M1 says:

    Do you still have the same numbers than those suggested in your weekend update, Tony ?
    ” First at the OEW 1386 pivot range, (1379-1393), wave C = 1.618 wave A and represents a 38.2% retracement of Intermediate wave i. Next is the OEW 1363 pivot range, (1356-1370), which represents a 50% retracement. Then SPX 1345/46 which represents a 61.8% retracement, and where wave C = 2.618 wave A.”

  6. Ryan Parker says:

    Quick question for Tony regarding OEW. I am quite familiar with ending diagonals but not as much with leading diagonals. Are there leading diagonals in OEW and would it be possible to count wave 1 as 1267-1363. Then 2 as (A-E) 1309. 1375, 1325, 1380, and then 2 ending at 1329? Then wave 3 up to 1475 and the current action as wave 4? Just wondering about the potential for leading diagonals in OEW. Muchas gracias.

  7. Ryan Parker says:

    Did anyone else notice that the low of the day for the Dow (12876) was the high from 5/2/11 as well as the gap close from early-August? Darn close to a 50% retracement of the entire move up from June low as well. SPX holding up a bit better than the Dow as the same levels there are 1365-1371.

  8. pbnj123 says:

    Tony – regarding divergences on the daily charts – does there need to be more than one days trading in order for it to to be marked and represented?
    Thank you

  9. Tony, any new downside target for aapl? breached 567

  10. rc1269 says:

    just had a somewhat weak treasury auction; timing coincided with the little pop in stox

  11. LX says:

    That’s all I got
    ES got it’s 10 handle from the low.
    CL well its CL ..great job homeless day trader on the trend.
    Life has caught up to my family like it does to everybody’s eventually.
    We had a great run ! I’ll see u guys soon !
    Get well TC !

    • H D says:

      Take care

    • CB says:

      Take care Lee. Hope all is well with you & ur family. Hey, stop by whenever you want us to cheer you up or when you need someone real bad – cuz we’re real bad, as you know 😛 & thanks for the heads up on the markets + all the fun+ for ur kind words re:TC. TC’s middle name seems to be ‘brain’s electrical circuit’s that are sensitive to some planetary heavyweights, so he’s doing fine until he suddenly isn’t, so I am bracing myself for a couple of total eclipses this month. Breathe, just breathe, is all one can do sometimes.

  12. pooch77 says:

    Tony hit the pivot at 1388,up 10 points,think we bottomed?

  13. piazzi says:

    Gold intermediate cycle low window

    Aug-27-Nov 5

    S&P intermediate cycle low window

    Oct 22-Dec 3

  14. LX says:

    EMA 34 weekly SPX on Tonys chart @ 1387 ish

  15. H D says:

    let’s test 1400

    • H D says:

      This is HD and I approve this meesage. The greatest trades often fly in the face of recent market activity! Mind the 10-12 handle bots, 1388-1398

  16. LX says:

    Its that time again

  17. dwr51 says:

    Does Dow at 12933 satisfy your requirement for a lower low that you had mentioned some time back was needed to start the next wave up.
    Best to all

  18. bdoalex says:

    Clients want to know their tax exposure, especially at the state level. So basically want to know scenarios, if they realize 1 or 2 million in gains. Same goes for property.

    My clients are retail investors, and they are not selling in droves just yet. especially not today.

  19. LX says:

    Well that wasn’t that bad .. U guys have been waiting for this

    expect some pops now

    Thanks R C
    Hey C B

  20. rc1269 says:

    financials getting obliterated today

  21. LX says:

    ESZ 1496/97 is open to a test

  22. pbnj123 says:

    Tony – looks like we might be getting those divergences you were mentioning the other day.
    The DOW on the daily and 60 minute look close – SPX not there yet

  23. H D says:

    there’s ur *1404, 90 points ES 3 days of massive swings.

  24. There’s the 567 level in AAPL you mentioned Tony. Got long here.

  25. LX says:

    aapl 567 *
    Cramer sez sell now

  26. bdoalex says:

    Investors determined this morning in selling long term capital gains in advance of a raise in capital gains rates. Phones ringing off the hook.

  27. pooch77 says:

    Tony 1395-1400 low then turn higher?

  28. robnaardin says:

    Thanks Tony
    In the short term CMF is having a bullish divergence and the turtle trader 20 & 50 dema are still in a bullish configuration. After a double macd bearkiss and the macd now below zero: short term uptrend has got to resume. After that….

  29. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    Not yet. I am not so confident in your bullish short term scenario yet. And I am still 150% short.
    Same charts, same ideas for the moment.

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