wednesday update

SHORT TERM: US markets open, DOW -11

Yesterday the FED issued the following press release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121030a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1414. The SPX had closed at 1412 on friday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported slightly higher: 49.9 vs 49.7. The market continued to rally until just before 10:00 when the SPX reached 1419, hit short term overbought, and then began to pullback. At 12:30 the SPX had pulled back to 1406, and then tried to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1414, then pulled back into a 1412 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude rose 45 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15; weekly Jobless claims at 8:30; ISM manufacturing, Consumer confidence and Construction spending at 10:00; then monthly Auto sales in the afternoon.

The market opened slightly higher today, rallied above friday’s high 1417, then pulled back to 1406. This is the first time, in the past seven trading sessions, that the SPX did not make a lower low. This market has remained a bit choppy since October 23rd. Trading within a narrow SPX 1403-1421 range, with only a slight downward drift. We do expect this pattern to end soon, along with the Intermediate wave ii downtrend.

Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum hit overbought today, then ended the day above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing level now around SPX 1421. Best to your trading and welcome back!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrending

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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39 Responses to wednesday update

  1. CB says:

    closed just below 1429.13 =38% from 1403 and 1428.72 = 38% from 1474ish..

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  2. CB says:

    Tony, when you assess equities, how much do you take into account what the treasuries are doing? Thanks.

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    • CB says:

      meant…when you try to predict the ST/IT direction of equities, that is..

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    • tony caldaro says:

      CB,
      We look at everything: Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Foreign indices.

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      • CB says:

        thanks Tony. You guys cover so many markets -it’s really amazing how you do that. Nice job you guys!!
        Tropical storm Tony -that’s a good one =) Personally I think they should try to fly military aircraft into those storms right off the coast of Africa when they start forming, and try to disrup them… The gov. started woking on weather-modification in the 90s- one would think they should know how to do it by now…

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      • tony caldaro says:

        Been doing it for years.
        If the gov’t could control weather we would not have gone from floods to draught the past two years. Have no idea what the Chemtrails are all about.

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      • CB says:

        ..they’re a figment of imagination, aren’ they…..in the meantime, it seems like our friends in the Orient are getting a lot of tropical storms during summer..they must be a few steps behind…

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      • tony caldaro says:

        CB,
        Realized a pattern today.
        Last year we had so much rain that the stream running through my property rose 13 feet.
        This year a drought … balance.
        NYC just had Sandy, and the Hudson/East River rose 13 feet causing the flooding.
        NYC will be bone dry next year =)

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      • CB says:

        Nice, Tony! with forecasts like that U shld donate ur time at the Old farmer’s Almanac.. and 13 feet, geez that’s a bunch…and luckily U you didn’t get a flood I hope…Conclusion? ur managing ur water better than the Hudson River guys =)
        and if NYC is gonna be dry next year, I am booking a room at the Plaza for the entire summer, right now =)

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  3. pbnj123 says:

    Tony
    Good morning
    What now needs to occur to mark “c” complete?
    Thank you
    Cheers

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