SHORT TERM: US markets open, DOW -11
Yesterday the FED issued the following press release: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121030a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1414. The SPX had closed at 1412 on friday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported slightly higher: 49.9 vs 49.7. The market continued to rally until just before 10:00 when the SPX reached 1419, hit short term overbought, and then began to pullback. At 12:30 the SPX had pulled back to 1406, and then tried to rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1414, then pulled back into a 1412 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude rose 45 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15; weekly Jobless claims at 8:30; ISM manufacturing, Consumer confidence and Construction spending at 10:00; then monthly Auto sales in the afternoon.
The market opened slightly higher today, rallied above friday’s high 1417, then pulled back to 1406. This is the first time, in the past seven trading sessions, that the SPX did not make a lower low. This market has remained a bit choppy since October 23rd. Trading within a narrow SPX 1403-1421 range, with only a slight downward drift. We do expect this pattern to end soon, along with the Intermediate wave ii downtrend.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum hit overbought today, then ended the day above neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing level now around SPX 1421. Best to your trading and welcome back!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrending
LONG TERM: bull market