friday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -49

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets opened higher, but lost 1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported: +0.1% vs +0.3%, and Personal spending: +0.5% vs +0.4%, and PCE prices: +0.1% vs 0.0%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1442 and continued to pullback. It had closed at SPX 1447 yesterday. Near 10:00 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.7 vs 53.0, as was Consumer sentiment: 78.3 vs 79.2. Just past 10:00 the FED released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120928a.htm. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1436. Then the market tried to rally. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1446, pulled back to 1438 by 3:30, then bounced to a 1441 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.70%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude added 15 cents, Gold slipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Last night the FED reported a rise in the M1 multiplier: 0.901 vs 0.897, its highest level since early 2011. Today the WLEI was reported higher again: 53.8% vs 52.7%.

The market gapped down 5 points at the open today, traded down to SPX 1436, and then rallied. Today’s low matched yesterday’s trading low. While the SPX did not setup any positive divergences at the low, the DOW did, and the market rallied. Then after hitting SPX 1446 the market pulled back again, but this time to 1438, then rallied into the close. Quite a choppy session. After two days of choppy market activity our OEW short term charts have not turned positive. So a potential retest of wednesday’s SPX 1431 low is still on the table.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum touched oversold this morning then ended the day around neutral. The OEW short term charts remain negatively biased with the swing point now around SPX 1447. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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5 Responses to friday update

  1. budfox9450 says:

    Have a great weekend Tony……Bud

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  2. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. A quick question if you can pls. So SPX didn’t do 2 things (so far): no overlap abv. 1452 and no +d at the low. Does the fact that the Dow did set up +div. mean that the market is getting more defensive, or do you interpret it as bullish?

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    • tony caldaro says:

      While I didn’t get an all clear signal in the SPX, the +div DOW certainly did the trick at SPX 1436 this morning. But its short term chart didn’t give the signal either. Guess we need Ben to put in the good word monday lunchtime

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      • CB says:

        Thanks Tony! Didn’t know about Ben’s speech. GTK. That certainly gives us some time to work on that little intraday problem. Enjoy ur weekend -looks like you’ll be in the 70s -doesn’t get better than that =)

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