monday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -21

Overnight the Asian markets were -0.4%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1453 at the open. After a dip to SPX 1452, in the opening minutes, the market tried to rally. At 10:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120924a.htm. The rally continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit 1458, and then started to pullback. For the next 2.5 hours the market traded between SPX 1454 and 1456. Then after hitting SPX 1454 for the second time, around 1:30, the market tried to rally again. Around 3:00 the SPX hit its high for the day at 1461, then pulled back to close at 1457.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 90 cents, Gold slid $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence and the FHFA price index at 10:00.

The market gapped down again today for the second time in three tading days. This activity has occurred during both pre- and post- options expiration friday. The pullback took the market to within two points of thursday’s gap down SPX 1450 low, and then rallied. Again, somewhat similar to thursday’s activity as well. Thus far we have had a short term high at SPX 1475, a pullback to 1450, a rally to 1467, and now another pullback to, thus far, 1452. A possible Intermediate wave iv triangle may be forming: wave a SPX 1450, wave b SPX 1467, wave c SPX 1452, with waves d and e yet to come.

Short term support can now be counted at SPX 1450/52 and the 1440 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum was quite oversold this morning, like thursday, and rebounded to neutral during the day. The short term OEW charts turned negative, then positive again, as the market vacillated around the SPX 1455 swing point. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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38 Responses to monday update

  1. cruda Lee says:

    BTW Pivot time

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  2. cruda Lee says:

    U guys see anything familiar with todays action in ES/SPX at the days/weeks low ?

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  3. cruda Lee says:

    ESZ right back to yesterdays scene of the ramp @ 1447.00
    thar be stops under thar

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    • cruda Lee says:

      CL *hindsight alert
      traded up to Sundays Globex high and back into yes afternoon ramp congestion.
      Trade like a bot
      Ltr guys

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  4. M1 says:

    just one word for the moment: UP
    DIA hit all time highs http://scharts.co/T8SYbu
    SPY hit all time highs http://scharts.co/QhFION
    IWM hit all time highs http://scharts.co/PVatqK
    Is that Bearish ?

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  5. 5wavemodel says:

    1455-1452 proved to be support today. The market should hit resistance at 1462, and then 1466-1470.

    Thanks,
    Steve
    http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/2012/09/mondays-market-092412.html

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  6. CB says:

    Thanks Tony!

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  7. blubrd67 says:

    Tony, if int iv triangle is developing, are you saying we might finish the iv without going any lower than 1450, and not reaching even 1440 pivot?

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  8. mjmateer says:

    Would you post an update on your thoughts about SMH – are you expecting a 50% retracement of the previous wave? tia.

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    • tony caldaro says:

      MJM,
      So far it looks like it is in a downtrend from the August high.
      It failed to make an new interim high with the SOX the other week, probably because of INTC.
      But the SOX also looks like it’s in a downtrend as well.
      Expect these two to lead when this general market pullback nears conclusion.

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  9. maks12 says:

    Thanks Tony. Do you think the triangle will resolve shortly?

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  10. aquafam says:

    Tony

    I’m one looking for the end of the bond bull market, so from an inverse perspective, what do you see as support for the ten year Tsy yield?

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