thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback extends, DOW +19

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.2%. European markets opened lower and declined 0.4%. US index futures we lower as well. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported flat: 382K vs 382K. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1455 and continued lower until hitting 1450 around 10:00. At ten the Philly FED was reported improving: -1.9% vs -7.1%, but Leading indicators declined: -0.1% vs +0.4%. The market then started to rally. The rally continued to move higher throughout the day, hitting SPX 1461 around 3:30. Then after a slight dip to SPX 1458 the market closed at 1460.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds added 3 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow is Options expiration day.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since the end of August. During the open the SPX gapped right below support at 1456 and continued lower to 1450. Then, with the market quite oversold short term, the SPX rallied 9 points over the next two hours. During the recent decline, from SPX 1475-1450, the largest rally was also 9 points. That occurred when the SPX first hit 1456 at the open on tuesday. The market then took nearly two full trading days just to rally that 9 points. This suggests SPX 1450, +/- a few points, may be an important level.

With the recent pullback of 25 points it appears Intermediate iii, of this Major wave 3 uptrend, completed at SPX 1475. The current decline should be part of Intermediate wave iv. When it concludes Intermediate wave v should take the market to new bull market highs. Fourth waves during this uptrend have been relatively minor pullbacks, and have taken the form of a triangle; i.e. Minor 4, and the two Minute iv’s. This would suggest the OEW 1440 pivot range, (SPX 1433-1447), should support this Intermediate wave iv pullback.

Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning then bounced back to neutral. The short term OEW charts barely remained positive with the swing point now SPX 1452. Best to your trading!  

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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52 Responses to thursday update

  1. cruda Lee says:

    Goodbye Summer Hello Fall

    Have a great weekend to one and all

  2. CB says:

    hey guys, you may want to make a note of some of those upcoming dates for ur trading =)

  3. cmparis says:

    Hi Tony
    30yr mortgage rate….Do you see this as close to the bottom?
    Or will recent FED action move it lower?
    Thanks – Charlie

  4. cruda Lee says:

    Hey guys

    Seems like another barn burning 4X OEX..My ES call @ 1455.50 stunk. CL worked out with stops then a drop
    I’d kiss Lady Gaga if that would kill this bug Ive got.. Dont do drugs kids

    • cruda Lee says:

      Yikes.. Feel free to delete Tony goodness

    • CB says:

      haaa..”barn burning OEX”…I guess most ppl don’t have anything nice to say about this market, so they’re saying nothing =)

      oh my my, gaga…..narissists, huh?..ppl either love them or hate them…gaga is lucky (more) people love her (than not)

      • cruda Lee says:

        Hey C B

        My Grandfather told me when I was a young man that “only your Mother really loves you”
        It is so true 🙂

      • CB says: seems a bit more complicated than that…Mother’s love is unique at an early stage in our life – the kid is the receiver, &the mother is the giver. As we grow up, it changes.. at some point we’ve received enough motherly love, so we’re ready to give as in our adult life we love people that love uu… it becomes a two-way street…with mother’s love it is (at an early stage) a one-way street…with narcissism there is an issue with never feeling like one has gotten enough of that love/or not quite separating from the mother and not getting past that initial stage…it’s a very complex and interesting state.. gaga seems like a poster child ..hopefully she finds something real in her life too..instead of looking for substitutes..she is a nice kid after all…..sorry to contradict ur Granpa a bit Lee :))

      • CB says:

        typo- should read : ” we love people that love us” 🙂

      • CB says:

        “We should love people that hate us too.” — well, it makes sense doesn’t it – if you love someone how could they not love you back, right…so even the haters will stop hating…good 1 other words,.it’s infectious… our pupils – they get bigger when we see someone we like and they, in turn, know ( subconscious signal -from seeing our pupils) that we like them, so their pupils get bigger as a response…so we like them back even more ..and it goes on and on…lol..(no, I am not making this up ;))

        Zinc + Vit C…that’s it Tony!!..I forgot zinc yesterday ..I thought is was magnesium but I guess Mg supplements contain Zinc as well.
        .so her’s ur secret recipe for success Lee, Zinc +Vit C. :))

      • CB says:

        visual aid =) empathy is kind if a big big deal, isn’t it…only when we really put ourselves in the other person’s shoes and figure out how they feel, or what they need then we have a two-way street..without empathy it’s just about us.. OK, that’s enough of that pillow talk for toda, rught?y.. =)

        I don’t want SPX to go much below 1458 for my long position…what are you guys thinking?

        Fiona , thanks for sharing ur links as well.. very interestung and always appreciated !

      • cruda Lee says:

        Hey C B

        I still think we go and test SPX 1430 before a new high..if I’m wrong I’ll just suck on some Zinc and curl up 🙂

      • CB says:

        Yeah, curling up sounds good – maybe ur body is telling you ur working too much, or that you guys are ready for some nice FL weather.. :))
        “test SPX 1430” – yeah you must be right on that Lee & that possibility kind of sacres me right now. I am gonna watch rsi 70 on the daily and some offsett moving averages which are a-OK. Thanks Lee. Appreciate your thoughts!

    • tony caldaro says:

      When in Rome …

      Vitamin C 500 mg, Zinc 50 mg, and a humidifier.
      Germs do well in dry environments.

  5. M1 says:

    Back in 2009, he called for a top.
    Back in 2010:
    2012: The dow is abt 14,000. I wonder what he says now ?

  6. M1 says:

    Adjusting the count: interm wave iii is still underway. We haven´t seen the start of interm wave iv

  7. tommyboys says:

    4X Witching today should be good for today’s market and bullish for the balance of the year…

  8. tommyboys says:

    Financial Stress goes negative for the first time in about a year…

  9. 5wavemodel says:

    1450 proved to be an important support level as I mentioned yesterday. This should complete the inverted corrective wave 2 from 1438.74, clearing the ay for the market to move higher, with my target being 1497. If 1450 fails to hold, 1426 looks like the next support level.


  10. Hi Tony, is it possible that today was all of wave iv?

  11. CB says:

    Thanks Tony, 1st class reporting & analysis as always!

    P.S. oh my, Lee catches a cold and the internet traffic east and west of the Mississippi just dies down..I think that’s called …being influential… 🙂

  12. cruda Lee says:

    sounds good amigo !

    • cruda Lee says:

      cheap short @ 1455 ish ESZ in after hours if it plays out .
      CL 93.50 ish is where the buy stops are IMO from late shorts

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